I don’t think there is one magic bullet (so to speak) in terms of a weapons platform that will win any war.
F16s require complex logistics chains and vast armies of maintenance support to keep them flying. Not to mention a constant influx of missiles and bombs.
A greater danger than running out of people IMHO is falling behind Russian production of artillery shells and missiles. Where Russia has been ramping up production, NATO and the West have been falling behind.
I created this thread primarily for these developments.
This is bad, very, very bad.
Is Prime Minister Viktor Orban deep into Putin’s pocket? Or is he an attention seeking prima donna?
Maybe Both?
Of course Hungary’s political interests don’t fully align with Ukraine. But it seems there’s something personal about this vote to block aid.
Link Ukraine may lose war in summer if military aid from America and EU dried up, US official says
Orban, like the US Congress’s utterly misnamed “freedom caucus” are simply extortionists. They want something specific and don’t much care who else gets hurt on the way to getting their own narrow demands fulfilled.
For enough cookies, the FC will permit a Ukraine support bill to pass the US House. For enough cookies, Orban will permit the EU support to pass.
Right now the rest of US & EU officialdom is not giving in to their respective extortionists. But they might. Neither are they yet able to successfully bypass their resident extortionists. But they might.
Meanwhile it’s causing sleepless nights in Kyiv for sure.
I think the danger is real. It also seems to me that Ukraine is unlikely to make any further meaningful territorial gains, even if we do get back to the level of support we were giving them before the Republicans in the House stopped the supply. What conclusions do I draw from these premises? I think it is time that Ukraine trades territory for peace. Not that Russia will agree. But NATO should. Draw the lines where they are currently, admit Ukraine as is in to NATO, and send NATO troops to defend the border. At this point I think that’s the best we can hope for.
I doubt Ukraine will, either. A year or two from now, maybe. But the sense I get from the rhetoric and pattern of ongoing combat is that Ukraine has not given up on winning the war. Which is to say, they have not yet concluded that…
I also think it is premature to assume the war is lost. But my opinion is unimportant. Until Ukraine itself is willing to stand down this will grind on.
The impression I have from various articles I’ve read is that Zelensky is still hung-ho about the war, but many others, including Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko and General Zaluzhnyi are seeing things as having reached a stalemate.
Stalemate now, certainly. Still a stalemate in a year? Quite possibly, but we’ll see. But you’re making the mistake of assuming stalemates are eternal. Just as one example the Allies were stalemated in Italy at multiple points before breaking through in WW II. Stalemates are common and often temporary affairs in long wars.
I haven’t seen anything from Zaluzhnyi indicating he is contemplating throwing in the towel (though fair to say that is probably an impossible talking point at the moment anyway since “gung ho” Zelenskyy is his boss). Rather he has been making that point to argue for more support:
To break the current stalemate in the Russo-Ukrainian War, Zaluzhnyi stressed the need for airpower to support large-scale ground operations, electronic warfare tools to negate Russian drones, counter-battery assets to overcome Russian artillery, mine-breaching technology, and training and other internal measures to increase Ukraine’s military manpower. (From the above article).
I agree with @Tamerlane with one slight proposed addition …
I also think it is premature to assume the war is lost. But my opinion is unimportant. Until Ukraine itself is willing to stand down this will grind on. Or until the West kneecaps Ukraine by withdrawing significant military & economic support. Thereby leaving Ukraine perhaps willing, but unable, to continue the fight with meaningful vigor.
And as I’ve noted in earlier posts my prediction today is that my insertion is what’s most likely to occur, and occur within the next 12 months. I wish that were not so, but I fear that it will go that way.
I know F-16’s have been promised by various countries. Ukraine pilots are training in various countries
What happens as funding runs low? Planes without well equipped ground and security crews can’t fly.
Missiles are expensive.
It’s a bad time for the West to cut funding.
What I’ve been reading is that the war has become a technological stalemate, similar to WWI. Neither side can maintain air superiority and the proliferation of drones and satellite coverage means each side can basically continuously see what the other side is doing.
I think the Russians are holding out and hoping Trump and the Republicans win the election in 2024. They will cut off support for Ukraine and that will allow Russia to push for a favorable settlement which Putin can claim as a victory. Putin will then round up rivals, dissenters, and protestors and re-solidify his control of Russia.
Completely. And I think Putin thought Trump would win in 2020.
Trump didn’t of course, but the wheels of war where already in motion, and Putin did it anyway.
I’m still having a tough time telling what Putin is going to consider a “win”. He would have paid an enormous price to get only a small part of Ukraine. It would be like someone spending $800,000 to buy, not a house, but a part of a house, while most of that house still belongs to someone else.
I’ve been baffled for quite awhile.
Strategically, the obvious thing to do is negotiate a Russian withdrawal. They’d still have significantly more occupied land compared to 2014. Putin can thump his bare chest and declare a great victory for Mother Russia.
Afterwards, Russia could intimidate Ukraine into falling in line with their policies and geopolitical interests.
It seems so obvious and Putin can easily do it. No faction inside Russia would dare to oppose his decisions.
Foolishly depleting the military for little new gains is a fools choice. But. that seems to be Putin’s plan.
Ukraine as a condo? Likely to be a heckuva monthly fee, and let’s not even think about the yearly owners’ meetings.
I’m sure Putin’s original goal was to annex all of Ukraine. But I believe Putin was smart enough to never publicly announce a specific goal. He left himself room to maneuver. He can take whatever settlement he is able to negotiate, retroactively announce it was Russia’s original pre-war goal, and thereby declare that he achieved a success. And problems that occurred along the way were due to protesters and political rivals.
The question then becomes whether Putin can convince the Russian people of this narrative. I wouldn’t count him out. Putin controls the Russian media and police. And a lot of other Russian political figures are tied to Putin’s regime and will be worried that they might fall if Putin does. So they’ll back Putin as long as it looks like he has a chance of staying in power. The rats won’t leave the ship unless they’re pretty sure it’s going to sink.
Agreed. And I think they will pull out all the stops to help ensure this will happen. Which will include calling in favors from all those politicians who are beholden to them financially through NRA funneled money, or via the usual honeytraps.
One hopes not.
He posted evidence in the very post you replied to.
What evidence? Russia isn’t any closer to victory than they were 2 years ago. Recruiting challenges are about as much of a real news story in wartime as dog bites man.