What has Russia accomplished lately? Essentially nothing but killing a few dozen civilians (terrible enough, but not damaging to the war effort, and probably helpful for hardening Ukrainian resolve). Meanwhile, Ukraine blew up another major Russian warship. It may not be much longer until Ukraine can destroy the Kerch bridge, and after that Crimea will be almost impossible for Russia to hold.
Russia’s fearsome reputation has definitely taken a hit. They aren’t the big bad Russian bear that can devour Baltic states with one bite.
They still pack a mean punch with missiles. They keep launching large attacks with them in Ukraine. Their supplies should be significantly lower. But they aren’t conserving missiles. The last two weeks has seen a significant uptick. This is the time to attack Ukraine’s energy grid.
It will be a long time before Russia’s military rebuilds. For now, they’re resorting to throwing bodies at the front lines. Massed frontal charges have a long history. I wouldn’t be surprised to see mounted cavalry charges next year. 
That is good news for the Baltic states. But it sure sucks to be fighting in Ukraine now.
Russia has accomplished very little, militarily speaking, with missile strikes. Their recent attacks did virtually nothing against Ukrainian infrastructure.
I’ve long considered that, Ukraine, being heavily dependent on outside aid just to hold on as long as they have, should have long been seeking some sort of treaty where they give up territory in exchange for (temporary, most likely) peace. Because I’ve never had any doubt that outside support for them will eventually collapse. Whether it’s by someone like Trump being elected, or simple shift in public sentiment where people become tired of funding this long war and begin to think ‘why isn’t it over yet?’
Their rhetoric about refusing to consider giving up any territory whatsoever has never really struck me as practical. Maybe it’s the strategy game player in me seeing things from a simplistic viewpoint, but my read on their statements and public attitude is that of being personally aggrieved that and reacting out of that offended point of view rather than considering what course of action will minimize their losses.
Not that Russia necessarily would have agreed to such negotiations. But negotiating at the strongest moment might’ve been better than pushing on earlier. At this point…it’s probably too late - Russia wouldn’t accept negotiations until they see how the political situation in countries that are supplying Ukraine pans out I don’t think. If they hold out until next year, and in the US the Republicans lose, and support for continuing to give them aid seems strong…well, that’ll be a moment of strength. The Russians might be willing to negotiate at that point. Will Ukraine be willing to do so at that point, or will they push on with the fight until it starts to look like their support might dry up again, at which point they again won’t seem that strong to Russia, and Russia will again feel ‘maybe if we keep it going a little longer they lose support’?
Why would Ukraine give land for “peace”? That means Russian domination, now or in the near future when Putin decides to invade again. The way to ensure Ukrainians stay Ukrainian is to make the cost for Russia to keep fighting more than they can pay. Which is what they’re doing, costly and difficult as it is.
It would depend on whether they have any hope of signing lasting mutual defense treaties in the time before Russia considers invading again. Russia has lost a good bit by now, and if they choose to negotiate, and accept some territory in a peace agreement, they will not be ready to invade again for quite some time.
If Ukraine has much of any hope of getting proper mutual defense treaties signed that are relatively permanent and much more difficult for other countries to back out of than the current giving of aid…well, they could use the time for that. Then by the time Russia is ready to attack again, Ukraine has its defense treaties in line and would have full, treaty-obligated support backing them up. Russia would be unlikely to push forward at that point. Yes, joining NATO probably has hurdles due to Turkey, due to the unanimous agreement required, due to the fact that it would be very public and Russia could object. But that doesn’t prevent them from signing individual defense treaties, I don’t believe.
Ukraine believes they are on a path to victory, even if it takes time (according to both polling and public statements by leaders). Negotiation doesn’t seem likely while Ukraine thinks they’re going to win entirely. And I agree with that – Ukraine is on a path to reclaim Crimea by attriting Russian naval forces in Crimea and then cutting them off by destroying the bridge… if they retake Crimea, the rest becomes much, much easier.
@Mnemnosyne has a point. So does @iiandyiiii.
Zelenskyy thinks Ukraine can win given continuous Western support until some uncertain but years-away future date. Putin thinks Russia can win given Western support softening or ending before Russia is totally exhausted which is also a years-away uncertain date.
The problem is that both leaders are correct in their thinking.
This war will not be decided on the ground, sea, or airspace where the fighting is going on.
It will be decided in Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, and Brussels. By governments and treaty organizations that are not fighting and dying for a matter of homeland and principal, nor for empire and conquest. In fact they’re not fighting at all. It will be decided by the taxpayers and pro- and con- activists in all those countries and many more around the West. Who are being actively manipulated by all the modern cyber-psywar techniques the forces of Evil can bring to bear.
Yep. Basically, I’m pessimistic about that support lasting long enough to pull them through to actual victory, and my thoughts are they should try to negotiate at the next moment of strength they have, when things are looking grimmest for Russia (Russia will definitely not negotiate right now, I suspect - the possibility of US support disappearing next year is much too high).
Hopefully that pessimistic view is wrong, but if it is correct, Ukraine will certainly be worse off for having held out hope for full victory, since it may well lead to a full defeat if support crumbles enough.
But the only possible negotiation that would really keep Russia from invading again would be Ukraine joining NATO. Maybe Ukraine would give up a piece of Donetsk (but not Crimea) for peace and NATO membership. But there’s little chance Russia would accept that, barring imminent Russian failure (in which Ukraine probably would just hold out for victory). Without NATO membership, Ukraine can’t be assured they won’t be targeted again relatively soon.
It would be the logical thing to do if the alternative is defeat.
Ukraine will be doomed if Trump is re-elected. Trump will sell them out completely within two weeks of inauguration.
Hell, look at all them Nazis killed off and they still wouldn’t quit.
What, is this 2022 again? I thought we were done with ridiculous doom and gloom predictions of Russian domination. Russia has a very weak military. This is crystal clear by now. Ukraine was successful in defense in the initial phases of the invasion without any western support at all.
If Trump wins that will certainly make it harder for Ukraine to reclaim everything, but it won’t change Russia from a kleptocratic regime-of-lies into a competent military power. It will still be extraordinarily difficult for Russia to gain significant amounts of territory.
Russia was fighting defensively for most of WWII, only advancing when Germany was nearly doomed. And at the time, Russia wasn’t a kleptocracy in which every officer lied to their superior as a matter of course. Russia’s military is very far from what it once was.
The Germans only got to “nearly doomed” because the Soviets bled them dry at great cost. The US and Great Britain helped some to be sure but most of the bloodletting was in the Soviet Union.
True. But…Stalin had purged most of the officers from the army (certainly the best ones). That was probably the Soviets biggest problem at the outset of the war. They had little left in the way of experienced officers to fight the war.
I won’t deny that Russia is terribly hard to attack on their own territory. Ukraine would be doomed if they tried to invade Russia. But that’s not what they’re trying to do - they’re trying to hold their own territory (and succeeding) and regain lost territory (which is going very slowly, but progress has been made).
I’ll once again hammer the point that war is logistics and morale and little else, and until something major changes to eliminate the Ukrainian advantage in both, I see no path towards Ukrainian defeat. Victory will definitely be a tough slog, but when the alternative is no more Ukraine (in addition to many other factors that impact morale), it’s easy to see why Ukrainian morale is so much better than Russian morale.
I’ve wondered if cutting off supplies to certain areas would be effective against Russian troops?
They apparently aren’t particularly physically fit or well trained. I think they’re sent into battle lightly supplied? IIRC some men are buying their own gear.
Cut off the supply routes and let the bastards starve until they have to surrender or withdraw.
It would require fighting to keep the supply routes cut off. But that’s better than trench warfare. Charging into minefields is not a good strategy.
Or it would require air power and/or loitering munitions. Lots of them.
Air power is always needed. Hopefully things will change in another year when Ukraine has the F-16’s.
For everyone …
I’ll point out that another thread was recently created as a companion to the Ukraine war breaking news thread. As we all know, the mods keep that one pretty close to just cites and a quick comment or two. This other thread is intended to be a place where we can explore timely topics in more detail without ending up with 25 Ukraine threads on 25 minor topics.
This thread we’re in here is great for what it is and is certainly well-established, but if you (any you) have ideas to discuss triggered off current events, that other thread is probably a decent place for them.