(For those of you who aren’t Cubs fans, this is a question about MLB player Javier Baez).
As an example, a couple of days ago Javier Baez won a game pretty much single-handedly. He singled, then attempted to steal second. The catcher’s throw went wild and sailed into center field, and he almost nonchalantly cruised into third, while keeping an eye on the ball and the fielders. When the center fielder bobbled the ball, he rounded third and scored. In short, he scored from first on a single stolen base play.
It seems like he makes these sorts of plays all the time. He is a very aggressive base-runner, and constantly seems to pressure defenses into making costly errors. Is there a metric for this? I mean, sure, runs scored covers part of it, but only part. It’s not just that he gets on base and gets driven in by the batters behind him. It’s not even that he steals bases and stretches singles into doubles. He seems to have an uncanny knack for reading throwing angles and body language and knowing when to press and pressure a defense and create errors.
Of course, maybe he’s reckless and he’s just been lucky so far this season. Or maybe my fanboy rose-colored glasses make his actions seem more remarkable than they are.
But is there some sort of metric to measure this sort of thing? Total Bases, Stolen Bases, and Runs Scored don’t really cover the bases he gains from the other teams’ errors, and even if my Cubbie enthusiasm is over-emphasizing his role in “forcing” errors, it seems like at least in theory an aggressive and clever base-runner could use tactics that lead to more opponent errors, and that might be a useful skill to quantify.
So he’s doing the EXACT same thing that Ty Cobb did a billion times and Jackie Robinson did a billion times and Willie Mays did a billion times and Pete Rose did a billion times yet you believe Baez is the first player in MLB history to act this way on the field?
Yeah, yeah, sure sure. :rolleyes:
But sure there’s a metric for it, it’s called “Playing the game the right way/Giving 110%/Respecting the Game.”
Good grief. I am absolutely not claiming Javier Baez is the first or only player to ever have done this sort of thing, or even the only player currently playing to be doing this sort of thing. As a casual Cubs fan, he’s just the one I’m currently aware of. I’m just asking if there’s a metric to measure it. And maybe there isn’t. shrug
Thanks. Bases Taken actually seems close, but it doesn’t appear to include bases gained as a result of an opponent’s error. Run Score % also captures an element of it, but like Run Scored, of course, also includes being driven in by a batter behind you. If there’s a Runs Scored Above Replacement or some such, that might be what I’m looking for.
Baserunning Runs does a good job figuring this. Baez, unsurprisingly, puts up lots of Baserunning Runs. Fangraphs awards him 5.4 BSR, which I know sounds modest but that is actually quite a lot for half a season by a guy who doesn’t pile up a lot of stolen bases. It’s the fifth highest in the major leagues.
If I’m reading the definitions correctly, Baserunning Runs is a composite, and the components seem to explicitly exclude advancement due to errors. I’m specifically wondering if there’s a metric that includes advancement due to the other team’s errors, sparked by my entirely anecdotal, casual fan observation that Baez seems to be involved in an abnormally large number of plays where his aggressive baserunning leads to defensive errors.*
*Disclaimer: this claim is not intended to deny or disparage the aggressive baserunning and hard play of Ty Cobb, Pete Rose, Jackie Robinson, or any other players, past or present, in MLB, MiLB, the Negro Leagues, Nippon Professional Baseball, or any other organized baseball league.
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