Is there a silver lining to Trump's win?

[UltraVires]

@iiandyiiii

It’s very simple. Sometimes undocumented immigrants are raped. Sometimes undocumented immigrants witness crime. Sometimes they have other information useful to solve crimes. If those undocumented immigrants are afraid the local police will deport them, they are much less likely to report crimes like rape and cooperate with investigations, and thus rapists and other criminals are more likely to get away to rape again. So sanctuary cities’ leaders have decided that preventing rape and other crimes, and solving rapes and other crimes, is more important than helping the federal government deport people.

Sounds pretty reasonable to me. I think preventing and solving rapes are more important than assisting the feds in deporting people.

Maybe for you, it’s okay when your side does it but not for the other side. Maybe for CP too. But that’s not the case for everyone. Some folks really do value some things more than partisanship, hard as it may be to understand.

And you are saying that they come to that position while being neutral or pro-Trump on the immigration issue? That they just decide that notwithstanding their desire to see these illegal immigrants deported, they simply believe that the small dent in these other crimes provided by illegal immigrant witnesses are more valuable?

Is it just happenstance that all sanctuary cities are far left? Is it your position that conservative areas of the country are happy to be awash in these crimes as long as it means deporting illegals?

What other crimes should we ignore so that the criminals can feel safe in coming forward to be witnesses for other crimes? How does ignoring ICE detention requests stop these witnesses from reporting crimes?

[iiandyiiii]

@UltraVires

And you are saying that they come to that position while being neutral or pro-Trump on the immigration issue? That they just decide that notwithstanding their desire to see these illegal immigrants deported, they simply believe that the small dent in these other crimes provided by illegal immigrant witnesses are more valuable?

Is it just happenstance that all sanctuary cities are far left? Is it your position that conservative areas of the country are happy to be awash in these crimes as long as it means deporting illegals?

What other crimes should we ignore so that the criminals can feel safe in coming forward to be witnesses for other crimes? How does ignoring ICE detention requests stop these witnesses from reporting crimes?

Sanctuary policies have been around a lot longer than Trump. If your point is that liberals like me generally value preventing rape as more important than deporting mostly non violent people, then I’ll certainly admit to that. Maybe conservatives feel differently. Not sure how this helps your argument, though, whatever it is.

[Xema]

@Chief_Pedant

… easily the most comically naive political move in memory.

Yes. The only silver lining is for Trump.

Pelosi, supposedly so savvy, managed to make it meaningfully more likely that we get another dose of the Orange Man.

[Xema]

@iiandyiiii

… liberals like me generally value preventing rape as more important than deporting mostly non violent people …

You really believe that an important effect of sanctuary policies has been to lower rates of sexual assault in cities that have adopted them?

[Miller]

@UltraVires

Yeah, I’m sure that these sanctuary city leaders are all pro-Trump firebrands who want to deport every single illegal alien, yet dammit, the budget just isn’t there for that so we have to leave it to the feds to do it and keep writing jaywalking tickets.

You don’t seriously believe that do you? These policies are enacted because of a political disagreement with current immigration law. From my understanding, all the feds ask them to do is honor an ICE detainer so the feds can come pick them up. Even though every city and state honors all other detainers from other states and federal detainers on all other laws, they refuse to honor ICE detainers because of budget reasons?

Hey, you know what word didn’t appear once in iiandyiiii’s post? “Budget.”

[Xema]

But ‘prioritize’ did.

[Miller]

@Xema

But ‘prioritize’ did.

And?

[Xema]

And one very common sense of ‘prioritize’ has to do with allocating limited budget resources.

[iiandyiiii]

@Xema

And one very common sense of ‘prioritize’ has to do with allocating limited budget resources.

My post had nothing to do with budgets. Hopefully we can move on.

[QuickSilver]

@Xema

You really believe that an important effect of sanctuary policies has been to lower rates of sexual assault in cities that have adopted them?

Shout out to an old classic, yo!:

“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best,” he said then. “They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”

Trump has been particularly vocal in opposing so-called “sanctuary city” policies, in which some jurisdictions have refused to fully cooperate with federal immigration authorities. On Wednesday, he highlighted California cities who do cooperate, inviting mayors and sheriffs opposed to the state’s predominant policy.

“Each of you has bravely resisted California’s deadly and unconstitutional sanctuary state law,” Trump told them.

[carnivorousplant]

@Xema

You really believe that an important effect of sanctuary policies has been to lower rates of sexual assault in cities that have adopted them?

Perhaps, How many do you require for it to be a good thing?

[Xema]

Would be interested to see evidence that sanctuary policies have resulted in reduced rates of sexual assault. My sense would be that such a connection is unlikely.

[Xema]

@QuickSilver

Shout out to an old classic …

Not seeing any relevance to the present discussion.

[GIGObuster]

@Xema

Would be interested to see evidence that sanctuary policies have resulted in reduced rates of sexual assault. My sense would be that such a connection is unlikely.

The Effects of Sanctuary Policies on Crime and the Economy

Crime is statistically significantly lower in sanctuary counties compared to nonsanctuary counties. Crime is defined here as the total number of violent crimes—murders, rapes, robberies, and assaults—and property crimes—burglaries, larceny, motor vehicle thefts, and arsons—per 10,000 people. The data indicate that crime is statistically significantly lower in sanctuary counties in large central metro counties, small metro counties, micropolitan counties, and noncore, rural counties. Large central metro counties show the most pronounced difference. Large central metro sanctuary counties have 65.4 crimes fewer per 10,000 people than large central metro nonsanctuary counties.

Perhaps more importantly, the results of the CEM analysis show that crime is statistically significantly lower in sanctuary counties compared to nonsanctuary counties when statistically matching and then controlling for population characteristics, including total population and the foreign-born percentage of the population. The results of the CEM analysis show that there are, on average, 35.5 fewer crimes per 10,000 people in sanctuary counties—a result that is highly statistically significant.

BTW, got that via NPR: Why Sanctuary Cities Are Safer : Code Switch : NPR . No wonder Trump and henchmen want to get rid of them too.

[Xema]

The link doesn’t seem to make it clear whether the lower crime rates were pre-existing, or are the result of sanctuary policies.

[Czarcasm]

@Xema

The link doesn’t seem to make it clear whether the lower crime rates were pre-existing, or are the result of sanctuary policies.

If the claim had been the opposite(crime rates are higher in sanctuary cities/counties/states) would you ask this question?

[margin]

@GIGObuster

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/reports/2017/01/26/297366/the-effects-of-sanctuary-policies-on-crime-and-the-economy/

BTW, got that via NPR: Why Sanctuary Cities Are Safer : Code Switch : NPR . No wonder Trump and henchmen want to get rid of them too.

Is actual crime itself down, or just reporting of it?

[GIGObuster]

@Xema

The link doesn’t seem to make it clear whether the lower crime rates were pre-existing, or are the result of sanctuary policies.

It has to be noticed that you are still going for a straw man of what iiandyiiii really said. In essence, he mentioned how it is better to keep crime down rather than wasting a lot of money in deporting lots of parents or relatives of kids and young people that are American. Not that the crime rate changed from the past.

So your demand here is a bit irrelevant and following a lot of mistaken or misleading talking points from the right, I made my reply directing it to the big lie made by Trump and henchmen. That lie that goes as ‘crime increased when a city becomes a sanctuary’. As studies did show, that was a big lie from right wing sources.

Mind you, in the past, other researchers found no significant increase in the crime rates of cities that became sanctuaries; as Trump and his bigots insisted and continue to insist.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/10/03/sanctuary-cities-do-not-experience-an-increase-in-crime/

Since then, public scrutiny of sanctuary cities has grown. For example, Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry stated that sanctuary cities “allow illegals to commit crimes, then roam free in our communities,” citing Los Angeles’s spike in crime in 2015 as evidence.

But is really true? Despite popular accounts, decades of research actually shows that immigrants – whether legal or illegal – tend to have lower crime rates.

Now, our new research shows that designating a city as a sanctuary has no statistically significant effect on crime.

The more recent research I linked to actually points that there is a significant difference, and it remains contrary to what Trump and others say.

The Effects of Sanctuary Policies on Crime and the Economy

The data are clear: Crime is statistically significantly lower in sanctuary counties compared to nonsanctuary counties. Moreover, economies are stronger in sanctuary counties—from higher median household income, less poverty, and less reliance on public assistance to higher labor force participation, higher employment-to-population ratios, and lower unemployment.

[Czarcasm]

@margin

Is actual crime itself down, or just reporting of it?

Same question for those claiming that the crime rate in sanctuary cities is going up, right?

[Buck_Godot]

I just popped into this thread to propose one possible silver lining for Trump’s election.

First we must acknowledge that Trump is as much a symptom as he is a disease. The power hungriness and rejection of legislative norms of the Republican party exists whether or not Trump is president. The post truth partisan propaganda of the right wing media exists whether or not Trump is president, and the xenophobic white identity reactionary portion of out populace who listen the that media exists whether or not Trump was president.

Fortunately for our Democracy Trump is too incompetent to fully make use of all of this. He was just lucky enough to be the first stumble into realization that the old rules no longer apply, that the truth is irrelevant and so long as you can find 34 senators who are more loyal to you than to the country, the president has unlimited power. Suppose rather than Trump who first realized this, it was someone who actually had the intelligence and political skills to wield that power effectively. Who wouldn’t tweet their corruption out in the open for all the world to see, would provide a semblance of competence, and would know enough not to bribe a foreign leader on a phone call that others could hear.

Imagine if instead of Trump it was Nixon, or Joe McCarthy, or J Edgar Hoover who was in charge right now.

At least with Trump we have a chance to see how bad things have gotten, and take action against it before its too late.