No.
The worst we have is that Cohen claims to have worked with Trump to violate campaign finance laws. Trump isn’t going to be removed from office for that offense. It has to be something significantly worse.
Manafort’s trial had northing to do with Trump except to make him look dirty by association. That isn’t even close to being something that will bring down Trump.
But I do agree that this lessens the chance he’ll try and run for reelection. Which is a good thing, as far as it goes.
I disagree on SCOTUS. I’m just going on body language here, but I don’t think Neil Gorsuch likes him much.
On the contrary the opinion of the general publichas little or nothing to do with what congress does or what laws get passed.
They only drop in to rally the base at election time, talking nonsense and spewing lies to get re-elected.
I disagree completely. Michael Pence believes he is an old testament-style patriarch placed by God in a position of power for the purpose of cleansing the nation. There is reason to believe that he was sexually abused by an older brother throughout childhood. He has failed to differentiate child abuse from consensual adult relationships and has openly stated that he would like to hang all gay men.
His fawning restrictive rules regarding fidelity to his wife hide a sick old testament attitude toward women as well. He is of the old fashioned belief that women are inherently sinful and must be controlled. He thinks the authority in a woman’s life should pass from her Father to her husband, and that allowing women real autonomy is the basis of all the evils in society. Including (in his mind, not mine) the mass murder of millions of babies each year. He thinks the government should control who can have sex with whom and the rules by which approval (marriage) should be granted.
The best case scenario IMHO is that Mueller waits until January 2019 elections to indict President Trump. With a Democratic House,and a Democratic speaker, then impeach Trump and Pence. The Speaker of the House would become President for the rest of the term. If (as I think we will) we also have a Democratic Senate at that time, then the serious clean-up can begin as soon as February 2019.
Yet. As far as you know.
Mueller isn’t done. How confident are you?
Nancy Pelosi is on record as opposing impeachment. She wants DJT to be voted out, which I agree would be a better outcome. Impeachment would leave Trumpers with a permanent grudge against the deep state, Hillary Clinton, Mueller, Comey, Sessions, and anybody else they can think of. Their anger and paranoia would increase exponentially.
By the way, after yesterday’s very bad news, Sean Hannity apparently frothed at the mouth ranting about Hillary’s emails and the end of justice as we know it.
I said in another thread that Cohen’s guilty plea could be the beginning of the end for Trump’s Presidency, but I’ll freely admit this is probably wishful thinking if based solely on what has been revealed so far. Much depends on what embarrassing revelations tumble out of Manafort’s next trial and what else Cohen has to say (with backing evidence) regarding specific services he provided for Trump over the past several years. Cohen does seem rather desperate to cut some sort of deal with the special counsel.
To say, as some here seem to be saying, that only criminal acts related to Russian interference in the election have any significance regarding Trump is IMO way off the mark. What brought Nixon down wasn’t necessarily the Watergate break-in itself, it was the accumulating weight of evidence that the Presidency was being run like criminal enterprise. I think we’re seeing a similar situation here.
Without a lot of evidence that I know of, since Mueller has had the most leak-proof investigation ever put together, I think Mueller has a few aces up his sleeve that will call into question Trump’s and his family’s financial shenanigans, which may or may not involve Russians.
Impeachment just sends the trial to the Senate. Neither can be removed from office without a 2/3 vote in the Senate. You need more than just a simple majority in the Senate.
Impeachment by the House is like an indictment. The trial happens in the Senate.
Depends on what Cohen has on him. I don’t think a campaign finance violation will cut it. If however, there’s more, maybe?
Also depends on the mid terms. If the dems take the house and senate, maybe he could be impeached and removed from office. If that doesn’t happen, I don’t think so. I also think this could easily be dragged out to 2020 anyway. I don’t think Trump would resign like Nixon, and I think he will very likely serve his full term.
I’d say this could hurt his chances in 2020, but given that Trump is very good at generating news cycles, and the public has the attention span of a gnat, who knows?
WRT the SCOTUS and a ruling on a subpoena from Mueller, I agree that Trump would lose even with Kavanaugh on the court. It’s not, however because I think Kavanaugh would rule against Trump. IMHO the deciding vote would be Roberts. I think Roberts cares to much about the country to let things get to the point where Trump is placed above the law for partisan reasons.
The Nixon precedents would be hard to dismiss, too.
What crimes do you imagine Vice-President Pence committed?
I do hope so. But as Churchill said,
He can be impeached for being a Trump-sucking religious asshole. No crime is needed for impeachment. You know that.
He’s no prize. But he’s better than Trump.
Complicity in the campaign finance conspiracy, primarily. Do please recall that Pence lawyered up as fast as the rest of them when Mueller got started.
Not grounds for impeachment. It’s unlikely that President Trump will be impeached, and absurd to suggest that the Vice President will be. You know that.
Good thing we have reliable and secure election machines, no savvy adversarial powers with cyber warfare expertise, and the people in control of our government didn’t refuse to fund election security under threat of interference, and that we routinely audit election results to make sure everything is on the up and up.
Oh right, the opposite of that.
If the Republicans are so complicit in election interference that they repeatedly refuse to secure our election, the American people may not even have the choice to vote him out in 2020.
It’s not just Trump. The entire Republican party is complicit in allowing Russia to interfere with our elections so long as it works in their favor.
The answer is ‘no’ unless his base of support collapses and I don’t think we’re there yet.
Does it mean the possibility of winning the house goes up marginally? Yes, it does. But polls released mid-next week will begin to tell that tale. We’re 75 days out from election day.
Even taking the house back, however, doesn’t mean that he’d be removed. But he will be investigated. Endlessly. And we’ll see the Republican congressional leadership bitch about it as much as the Democratic leadership bitched about the Obama investigations. So turns the wheel.
On the other hand…as a former journalist, I’d love to see them subpeona Trump’s tax records and other financials. Even if they’re presented in closed session the minute they’re in the hands of congressional staffers you can time the leaks with a stopwatch.
Nope. The end of the Trump presidency will probably occur Jan 20, 2021. Congressional Repulbicans are much more partisan than they were in Nixon’s day. There is very little that Trump could do that would get the 1/3 or so of the Senate Republicans votes needed to remove him from office. And without a credible threat of removal it is unlikely the Trump will vacate the office willingly. The best we can hope for is a massive blue wave this November that effectively neuters his adminstration and mires it in scandal investigations.
In the end there might be enough evidence against him to lock him up after he leaves office, but there is a good chance that his successor might prefer leniency as a move toward healing the divide rather than exacerbating the partisan wrangling that would result from further prosecution.
Yes. I do have to think most of them retain some shred of love of country before party, even if electoral calculation and simple spinelessness keep them intimidated. They might well figure that it’s best if they can keep on the good side of their deplorable base by supporting their elected leader, perhaps with occasional tut-tuts about his tweets as a sop to the sane, while keeping him caged and unable to do more major damage to the country and to civilization.