For decades, the tendency in U.S. thoroughbred racing has been to retire a famous and successful horse after the age of three, before it’s even really adult. This is done because the owners can make a boatload of money by selling or syndicating breeding rights.
Does this pay off for those who breed from these horses? Have the descendants of Secretariat, or Affirmed, or Alydar paid off for those who paid an unholy amount of money simply for the foal?
For that matter, was the ancestry of such as Secretariat such that the owners would have any reasonable expectation of his success?
Secretariat’s sire was Bold Ruler, who won the 1957 Preakness (and 11 other major races), and was the 1957 Horse of the Year, and was voted to the Hall of Fame.
Bold Ruler sired many champion horses, and Secretariat (born 1970) was among his last progeny (he died in 1971). Bold Ruler, himself, was sired by another champion, Nasrullah, and Nasrullah was sired by another legendary champion, Nearco.
If you read Secretariat’s background, there was certainly an expectation that he would be a good horse, though no one could have expected the magnitude of his greatness as a racer (though he clearly descended from a champion bloodline).
While few of Secretariat’s foals turned out to be great racers, a number of his later descendents were very good (including A.P. Indy). It’s theorized that his strength as a racer was due to his larger-than-normal heart (related to a genetic trait called the “x-factor”), a trait appears to only be passed down through the mare’s side of the bloodline. This may be why some of his most successful progeny were through mares he sired.
OK, I appreciate that, and it’s fine as far as it goes. But I’m going to assume that not every horse Bold Ruler sired was a great racehorse, and I’m going to assume that not every horse descended from Nasrullah and Nearco is a great racehorse. And not every horse descended from Secretariat is a great race horse.
Overall, I don’t see that it’s worth paying the incredible amount of money needed to get a foal from such horses. It’s just luck.
I would imagine there’s some luck involved, but you’re probably better off buying the progeny of a champion racehorse than a schlub.
I also assume that people are looking at more than just pedigree when purchasing horses. There are physical attributes and questions of temperament that I imagine they will assess before buying a horse.
ETA: I know approximately nothing about horse racing.
To a certain extent, it is a crapshoot. The foals of great racers aren’t guaranteed to themselves be great racers (see the earlier comment about Secretariat), and even horses with a record of producing good horses don’t do so every time. But, as fachverwirrt notes, the odds of it paying off are still substantially better than some random foal.
If it didn’t pay off often enough, horses simply wouldn’t go for that much money. Sooner or later, the market would correct itself.
Maybe I didn’t make myself clear; I’m not trying to exclude the middle; I’d like to include the middle. Do people who buy foals from champion horses, in general, make a profit?
Well, no. Horse racing is an expensive game played mostly by people who have more money than they know what to do with. It’s almost always a proposition.
I would only like to point out that there is thoroughbred horse racing throughout the world. A foal sired by a winning American horse may end up making money in another country. We, as casual observers of the American Triple Crown, may never hear of this.
But it is still horse racing, there are no guarantees, regardless of parentage.
It is called “the sport of kings”. Most of us can’t even afford a ‘mutt’ in the thoroughbred world. Although, there are thousands of races held yearly, not only in the US (my place), but across the world. There are races everyday. The Kentucky Derby is the last race of a 10 race day. There must be some money in it for the wishers and hopers.
I think the biggest flaw here is your assumption that profit motive is the primary reason people breed and race Thoroughbreds. I mean, sure, there’s money in the industry but at base it’s all about gambling. You try to stack the odds in your favor but if there wasn’t actual risk it wouldn’t be as exciting and attractive to many people.
If you’ve got a winner of a thoroughbred, there’s money to be made in breeding them. Triple Crown winner? It’s a huge effing mint. Just won one or two races of the Triple Crown? You’ll still do well. A fairly steady winner from good lines, sure, why not?
On the other hand, there are lots of 4 year old thoroughbreds that never won much, if at all, that you can have if you just pay their feed bill and arrange to transport it from the breeder’s farm.