Trump is currently polling in 1st place at around 23%. Jeb is a distant 2nd with just under 13%. That’s a sizable margin for the Donald. But I’m curious, have there been any polls done with Trump just head-to-head against Bush or Walker? So that those being polled have to choose between Trump and Bush or Trump and Walker. Does Trump still win those polls? Are the non-Trump supporters of the GOP candidate, being diluted because there are so many other choices?
Right now both the crazy and the quasi-adult votes are split among multiple candidates. We’ll see what happens when we’re down to one of each.
His negatives are so high that he can’t hit the numbers he’d need against only a handful of candidates. And he’s not electable, no matter what the troll people think.
Well, his negatives aren’t so high anymore. I doubt it lasts, but it’s fun in the meantime.
There hasn’t been many polls that asked but, in the few I’ve seen, Trump wins both “who is your first pick?” and “Who is your second pick?”. So even among people who would vote for Christie, Carson, Rubio, etc a plurality of them would go to Trump if their candidate of choice wasn’t available rather than going to one of Trump’s opponents.
Edit: Working off old info. It looks as though Trump is in 3rd place for 2nd choices but that came while greatly growing his 1st choice lead.
I haven’t seen any polls asking the question you pose in your OP. They may be out there but I haven’t seen them. I would be surprised to see him do all that well one on one.
I suspect Trump’s lead has to do with his celebrity. In many ways he is the candidate who is most familiar to the majority of voters. Add to that the fact the public is pretty fed up with politicians and Trump’s very high entertainment value and I think you have a good explanation for his appeal at the moment.
this is why primary campaigns would be interesting with IRV-instant runoff voting.
But I’d bet Trump still would win because he’d still have the momentum and the only thing his opponents have is “electability,” which doesn’t seem to excite the GOP base this time around. They feel let down from McCain and Romney.
I think so, in some ways.
Looking at campaign videos by Scott Walker and Ted Cruz show me these tea-people aren’t exactly good at speeches, or campaigning for that matter. Meanwhile, as dumb as Trump is, he’s been on camera for 20 years, he knows what demographics are, and he knows who he’s speaking to-- riled up, mamby-pamby middle class americans who have thoughts like his in the backs of their minds. Things like, “We SHOULD build a wall against Mexico and have the Mexicans pay for it! That’s what I’ve been thinking!”
This will die in the debates, of course. I can’t see him staying after two minutes of being, well, trumped by a democratic candidate. He’ll storm out blaming them for something. I don’t see any current republican being more charismatic than Trump in the republican debates, although I think Mittens and HW Bush would kill him.
Look at it this way-- celebrities are worshipped in many ways, even the ones we hate. None of the other candidates would even be heard of unless they make a dopey bible-thumping statement in support of repealing abortion, ACA, etc. Trump has been famous since the '80s with a famous divorce and a bankruptcy. Now a long prime time host of a national hit show-- I don’t think any average American wouldn’t be impressed by his rants, even though he has NO political experience whatsoever.
I call this the pulpit phenomenon. He’s no different than a preacher or pundit speaking to a Sunday church audience with some nodding and some chuckling to show appreciation. When election day comes, if he’s the actual nominee, most of the nodders won’t be voting for him. IOW, a crowd is easy to get cheering, but it’s not easy to do that for an individual. I don’t see people driving around in cars with Trump flags on them… yet.
So like a Ronald Reagan or Arnold Schwarzenegger?
A combination of the two, except one that loves bankruptcy and hates Mexicans. 