It sure looks that way - if I were Islam Karimov, I’d be checking flight reservations. Not that every time the government blames Islamic extremists for something, it’s the beginning of the end, but this sure doesn’t look good, and the Ferghana Valley has been a powder keg for a long, long time. News reports vary, but most agree that government troops shot at unarmed demonstrators, and that several hundred people may be dead:
“Troops open fire on Uzbek protesters”
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ededc984-c418-11d9-a56d-00000e2511c8.html
"Troops opened fire on thousands of demonstrators in Uzbekistan yesterday as President Islam Karimov tried to prevent an uprising in the east of the central Asian republic from escalating into a threat to his autocratic leadership.
A violent battle with security forces erupted in the town of Andizhan after armed rebels stormed the town prison overnight, freeing more than 2,000 inmates. The Uzbek press service reported nine people dead and 34 wounded - although the protest’s leaders told news agencies as many as 50 had been killed.
[snip]
Andizhan lies in the Ferghana Valley, a fertile territory stretching across Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, where disputes over frontiers and water supplies, and the spread of radical Islamist groups, have long provided the scope for conflict. The unrest comes less than two months after a revolution toppled President Askar Akayev in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan. Andizhan is not far across the border from Osh, the Kyrgyz town where protests first broke out over disputed elections in March.
[snip]
The rebels’ attack on the jail led to the escape of 23 local businessmen charged with belonging to a religious group linked to Hizb-ut-Tahrir, an extremist organisation blamed for a series of bomb attacks in Uzbekistan in 2004.
[snip]
Government troops began shooting in the late afternoon, causing protesters to flee the square. Mr Karimov has at his disposal the best trained and equipped army in central Asia. All secular opposition has been stifled during his repressive rule…"
“Thousands flee violence in Uzbekistan”
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ededc984-c418-11d9-a56d-00000e2511c8.html
"Thousands of people fled from Uzbekistan’s eastern city of Andizhan towards neighbouring Kyrgyzstan at the weekend in the wake of an uprising on Friday that has left hundreds dead…
[snip]
In Andizhan, the army sealed off the city centre at the weekend. Queues formed outside the town morgue and people began digging graves in the city’s parks. Army trucks were reported to be removing many bodies. One human rights campaigner said as many as 500 civilians had been killed.
Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s president, denied that he gave the order to fire on civilians gathered in Andizhan’s town square on Friday after rebels stormed the town jail, freeing prisoners.
He blamed the bloodshed on criminals and religious extremists linked to the outlawed Hizb-ut-Tarir movement, the largest radical Islamist movement in central Asia. Mr Karimov said rebels were seeking to replicate Kyrgyzstan’s revolution, which toppled President Askar Akayev in March.
[snip]
“If Uzbekistan implodes, the burden on Kyrgyzstan may become intolerable, undermining chances of a free and democratic election this July,” said Martha Olcott, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
[snip]
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said that the rebellion in Andizhan had been inspired by “extremist groups similar to Afghanistan’s Taliban”. "
More news:
“Troops and Protesters Killed in Uzbekistan Clashes”
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty coverage:
“Unrest in Uzbekistan”
http://rferl.org/specials/uzbek_unrest/
Is this likely to be a good thing in the end for Uzbekistan? Can a rebellion succeed? If it does, what is likely to replace it?