Since I have been using, and working in, Windows all my adult life, I was curious where Microsoft is in the iPhone - iPad - Android - Xoom generation. Wiki says that Microsoft developed a version of Windows for touch-screen phones, and it won some awards, and that they have an agreement with Nokia. OK, so they’re not entirely ignoring it.
But, I only ever see people touting their apps for the iPhone/iPad or Android. I’ve never heard anyone say “Windows Phone version coming soon.” Is Microsoft dead in the water in this market? Will anyone be buying Windows Phones, ever?
It’s never smart to count Microsoft out of any competition - they successfully penetrated the Nintendo/Sega market with the XBox, and Internet Explorer managed (albeit by bundling it with Windows - but the competition was offered for free as well) to knock Netscape Navigator off its very high perch back when. But what will it take? Is there some “killer app” that is clearly missing from the Apple/Android stables that Microsoft can use to grab a significant toe-hold? Would it be some ease of porting existing Windows applications that will make existing software shops develop for Windows Phone? Will they compete purely on price? Will they get in through the corporate IT market where Network Admins are familiar with Windows Server products?
Given how user-friendly and popular the Apple/Android interfaces are, I’m going to discount “familiarity with Windows look-and-feel” as a serious factor affecting any purchasing decisions.
Microsoft was only “successful” when they began selling XBox below their own cost to manufacturer, making up the loss leader in overpriced software. Microsoft was only “successful” with the browser because Netscape’s marketing was crap. Microsoft later went on to lose the government lawsuit and IE has never recovered. Then there [del]is[/del] was Zune …
I doubt the Microsoft phone will make any serious inroads in the iPhone/Android market. Too little, too late.
spoken like someone who has never used the pile of shit that was Navigator 4. It wasn’t Netscape’s marketing that sucked, it was their product that sucked.
you realize that almost every console that’s ever existed has been sold like this, right?
I expect Microsoft will make a resurgence with Windows 8. If the integration of desktop/tablet/phone OS goes like they expect, they’ll have a leg up on interesting designs and integration of devices. The current Windows Phone OS is pleasing to some people, enough that the Android Market copied it (sort of). They just came in with kind of a half-assed interest, not enough to make anyone look up from the phones they’re already playing with.
Windows Phone 7 is not setting the world on fire but it’s too soon to call it over. I’m eager to see the new Nokia phones. WP7 will also get a boost when Windows 8 debuts, featuring the Metro UI as an option for tablets and notebooks.
The real dominator in phones right now is Google. Android has jumped to a huge lead in market share - 41% to iPhone’s 27%. The thing Google and Microsoft have going for them is that people want phones that sync effortlessly with their other platforms - and Windows continues to dwarf everything else in that arena. WP7’s current market share is only about 5% - but even if they “only” achieve something close to Apple’s numbers it would still be a healthy chunk of the market.
The big difference between the Windows Phone and the iPhone/Android interfaces is that WP7 focuses on being a communication device, not a pocket computer that makes also phone calls. You know all those people who say, “I just want a phone to make phone calls on” - that’s where WP7 is aiming: people who are just looking to communicate with phones, texting and facebook.
The biggest danger to Android is if any of the significant patent allegations actually have merit. Google evidently doesn’t indemnify anyone using Android on their products, which means the handset manufacturers can (and are being) sued for patent infringement.
The way i see it, is that the current generation winphones dont do anything better than the apple/droid handsets, even though they may be just as capable.
Unless one of the current contenders stumbles badly, ms is only going to have incremental increases in sales. So if they cant change the hardware side of the equation, they can at least try to change the service side.
But that leaves problems with the handset makers and the os folks still in bed with the carriers. microsoft and apple are probably the only two entities that could go head to head with the carriers and force them into a pipeline service.
All data contracts, no minutes, no long distance, its all voip. Open up the secondary and tertiary markets that cant afford data, but can at least afford a used smartphone.
Otherwise winphones are going to go the way of palm and in my opinion, rim.
MS is late to the game, but they have a shot. WP7 is a solid platform, and it should have some signficant improvements with the next update that make it a lot more competitive.
I think they stand to gain the most from Blackberry’s failures. A lot of BB users are businesses or light users (mostly use it as a phone + email). WP7 is great for these, since it’s cheaper for businesses (no BES licenses needed) and easier for light users.
It’s also much simpler to use and less buggy than Android.
Compared to the iPhone, it has a vastly reduced app library, but still has a good assortment of apps and handles a lot of UI and communication features in a way some might prefer.
I think it also has the best media playing features of any mobile OS, doubly so combined with Zune Pass.
It’s a good product that has solid marketing points. If it launched two years ago, before the Moto Droid more-or-less saved Android, it’d probably be succesful already. As it is, they’re playing catch up.
You know why Unix was so successful in the 90’s? Anyone could get into the game and make money.
You know why Android is successful? Anyone can get in the game and make money (there are barriers to entry but you get the idea).
iPhone is successful because they occupy a high quality/fashion/mind-share niche.
Windows has an uphill battle because they are none of these. It would be tough to out-Apple Apple at this point, and they certainly aren’t going to give away licensing dollars on their OS, so they team up with Nokia and go it alone. They aren’t going away but I just don’t see them being able to take the #1 or #2 spot.
Note: my post says nothing about WinPhone OS quality/features because it simply does not matter. Unless they came out with something orders of magnitude better than the competition, any incremental differences are vastly overshadowed by other market forces.
I hope it’s not dead in the water, but unless Microsoft does something really smart, I’m afraid it might be.
I’ve been playing with mobile app development for a year or so now, I’ve got an Android app currently being used pretty extensively, and have dabbled in iOS. I have a Windows phone because I ran across a Microsoft Evangalist who was giving them away to developers.
Hands down, it’s the nicest phone. Interface-wise, it’s clean, it’s crisp, it feels good. It makes Android look old-fashioned, and it feels more modern than the iPhone.
Development-wise, it’s fast, it’s easy, it makes sense. Writing apps for it is a joy. The language makes sense, the development environment is really nice, and it’s fun to work with.
Unfortunately, RaftPeople might be right. WinPhone 7 is better than iPhone and Android, but not be a magnitude. And waaaaay too many people out there have a really bad impression of Microsoft, whether or not it’s deserved. They have an uphill battle no matter how good their product is.
A couple of Canadian tech writers seem to think the writing is on the wall for Microsoft to buy out RIM and establish a foothold in the smartphone market. Would be interesting to see a QNX/Windows hybrid platform.
That won’t happen. What I think would come out of such a mash-up would be rolling BES features into Exchange ActiveSync and Windows Phone, and a migration plan for customers already using BES. The Blackberry OS/QNX line would go into maintenance and eventually be dropped.
it would give them a chance to take over the corporate market using BES. It’s not as “sexy” as consumer gadgets, but it is still a lucrative market.
anyway, IMO BES should never have been allowed to happen anyway. If MSFT was on the ball, Exchange/Windows Mobile would have had that kind of integration from the start instead of having to rely on some third party’s servers.
MS is trying to actively court handware vendors from the standpoint that WP7 devices are going to be cheaper in the long-term because they require (/ allow) less software tweaking to bring to market, and their simplicity and hardware standards will reduce longterm costs. It might be a stretch, but I’m not sure they’re wrong.
MS can’t hope to kill Android or iOS; the question is whether they can make enough inroads to have a sustainable third OS.
The industry has ASSUMED it would be a three OS market, I don’t think that’s unreasonable. MS doesn’t have to “beat” Android or iOS, they need to bury RIM and find a sustained niche. It’s a tough shot, but not impossible. HP burying webOS might help, and having a good partner in Nokia is something.
The problem with that is consumers need to want to buy the phones and so far they don’t seem to want to (MS small market share is dropping, although that could be due to lack of choice so far). It’s an uphill battle to get into the consumer’s minds - Android and iPhone are already there.
I don’t think it would be a stretch for them to be #3, they have too much money and this is most likely (it better be) their primary focus.
Android’s fate is uncertain due to the whole patent thing. If Oracle and/or Apple have legs to stand on, it could get too expensive for handset makers to implement Android- or at least the FUD could scare them away.
One question is whether handset makers will be reluctant to support Android given that Google is buying Motorola. Perhaps they would rather sell a Windows phone?
I doubt it’s a huge incentive, since MS’s cozy deal with Nokia is similar.
Android is definitely showing a handful of headaches for partners, though. From where I sit (I do cellphone tech support for a living), the WP7 devices are a breeze comparatively.
I think the irony is that MS has the reputation as the “difficult to use” company compared to Apple or Google. In the mobile space, the opposite is now true: WP7 is far easier than Android, and at least as easy as iOS. But it’s a hard, hard sell.
Microsoft doesn’t own Nokia, though. Google is going to own one of the big handset makers, and the competitor for the other Android makers. How will that sit with the handset makers?