Fair enough. You’re correct and win an SDMB “I’m technically right” point. But you’ve missed the forest because of the trees.
I’d say he cares, he just doesn’t have loyalty, command respect and control enough to be relevant on that stage (yet?), which is the seat of his power. In these issues he has been laughably weak, really the emperor has no clothes weak. Ukraine is acting on there own, bypassing the WH, in this case Israel launches this before Turnip gets involved in his peace talks, basically making him irrelevant. Not to mention this trade war which is him saying you can trade with us or the world (as building in the US, makes you subject to his will and whims, and possible extortion). The world is a larger market then the US, easy choice.
from the cite:
Look guys. Israel striking Iran is never “routine”. It’s always a significant development with significant risk.
But it’s not a new phase of the Iran-Israel conflict, because quite obviously they traded hundreds of missiles last year in response to Israel bombing the Iranian consulate which was in response to Iran running a hostile intelligence op out of there which was no doubt in response to some other endless chain of grievances.
It’s not a new escalation, it’s not a new level of violence. But any recent development in this area is always a serious concern, and always has the potential to intensify and spill over into neighboring regions. So while it’s not unprecedented, it shouldn’t be dismissed as “routine”.
There was a nuclear deal in place under Obama that was meant to prevent this; it’s a shame Netanyahu tried to torpedo it and Trump actually did torpedo it.
Relevant sites with far more detail than I can cut and paste here:
Attacking nuclear assets is an escalation, but so is producing weapons-grade nuclear material and manufacturing nuclear weapons, so this kind of open conflict (“kinetic operation”!?) is nearly inevitable right now and will take some skilled diplomacy (new nuclear deal, along with some sub rosa political stuff) to ratchet down.
Yes, and that deal was kinda reminiscent of another famous deal which was meant to prevent war, and to bring peace in our time.
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(note to mods: I think there’s a rule about no politics in breaking-news threads. But I think my comment doesn’t violate the rule, because it’s more of a historical reference, with no mention of specific politicians, and is no more political than the post I’m replying to, or the other posts above which mention Trump’s role.. If you disagree, I apologize,-- feel free to hide my post.).
Then it sure is a good thing visionaries like Netanyahu and Trump worked to sink the deal, because things are going so great now in the region!
Dumbs question, but if Israel bombs a building containing uranium, does that mean the building and surrounding area will be contaminated with uranium? And is that one of Israel’s intentions, or are they trying to avoid that?
Not dumb. Yes contaminated. Same principle as a ‘dirty bomb’. Surround some explosive with radioactive material and set it off. Could be uranium or radioactive sources scavenged/stolen from medical equipment. Localized but scary as a nuclear boogeyman.
You’ll have to forgive me for not believing the assessment of the situation from a guy who brought a picture of a cartoon bomb to the UN.
Regardless of who started it (a question that, in the Middle East, ultimately goes back to the dawn of recorded history), the point is this particular attack was not something new.
Dirty bombs are overrated. All sorts of industrial facilities can dangerously contaminate the area they’re in, if there’s some sort of mishap (whether an accident or an intentional attack). The biggest difference with a dirty bomb, aside from the optics, is that it’s a lot easier to detect the contamination, which in turn makes the cleanup easier.
Thanks. And I’m not sure if this makes a difference or not, but I was referring to Israel dropping conventional bombs onto a facility/building/whatever that is housing uranium.
Same effect as a dirty bomb. Might be different optics if the uranium was already there vs. in the weapon, but I don’t pretend to understand optics.
yeah, that’s the million dollar question: How great will things be going a year from now..
If the attack succeeds in destroying Iran’s nuke capability, then future generations will thank Israel profusely. The world will be much safer
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But I’m guessing that aerial attacks can’t destroy the centrifuges and the uranium, which are presumably deep underground, or in long tunnels. I’m guessing that the bombs only smash up the ground above the nuke facilities, burying the entrances and the ventilation shafts .If so, then Iran can dig out and rebuild within a year or two, and we are back to the original situation we have now–Iran will have facilities with full nuke capability. And not only will they proudly have an Islamic bomb, they will be pissed enough to use it.
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according to Iran, theanswer is no
Yes, this is what I think. This was probably a really, really dumb move. While the Iran nuke deal was in place, there was no reason to believe they were violating it – and as long as Iran wasn’t directly threatened, they would feel less need for nuclear weapons.
Now? Iran has to be thinking nukes are absolutely necessary.
Huh?
This article by the BBC says that Iran is already violating it, and has enough enriched uranium to make 9 nuclear bombs, and has failed to allow access for international inspectors.
of course, we can all believe that Iran would have lived up to any agreement, and only wants to use its uranium for peaceful purposes. Because a nation with a third-world standard of living, and full of easily accessible oil just has to switch to expensive nuclear power plants, right?. And we can believe in fairy tales, too.
The UN is warning that it could mean that:
But there’s been no radioactive contamination so far, according to Iran.
The Israelis might be aiming for regime change in Iran. No idea if that would mean a more pro-Western government, or the kind of chaos and destabilisation we’ve seen elsewhere in the Middle East.
ETA: supposedly that’s the point of the name ‘Rising Lion’. This is the pre-revolution Iranian flag:
That’s now. Back when Obama put the deal in place, and while it was in place, Iran was in compliance. Only after Trump abandoned the deal did Iran go out of compliance.
From your own link:
However, US President Donald Trump abandoned the agreement during his first term in 2018, saying it did too little to stop a pathway to a bomb, and reinstated US sanctions.
Since 2019, Iran has increasingly breached restrictions of the existing nuclear deal in retaliation, particularly those relating to production of enriched uranium.