What if it wasn’t a convoy of trucks? Surely people are going to and fro from the place as normal work commute - who knows what’s stashed in the trunk of a random car or three?
What if the Iranians has been distributing some of their uranium to other secure locations for years simply because they were aware of the possibility of an attack?
Or yeah, maybe the Iranians are lying.
We just don’t know. We, sitting here, can’t know because we just don’t have access to intel like governments and militaries do.
Maxar Technologies, a U.S. defense contractor, released satellite imagery on Sunday showing activity at Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility prior to U.S. air strikes.
The images of the secretive plant, which were collected on Thursday and Friday, depict truck and vehicle activity near to the entrance of the underground military complex.
I would think that, yes that should had been done, but it was not, what’s up with that?
Wasn’t the enriched uranium supposed to be in a vault locked by the IAEA which is how they knew Iran had 400 kg of 60%+ uranium? Didn’t the IAEA say they knew where it was until the war started?
I’d assume (with no specialized knowledge to back it up) that the uranium and the scientists could be readily evacuated but that at least some, perhaps a lot of the equipment might have to be left behind if the evacuation took place over a couple of days.
If only there was a way to watch vehicles from above using multiple layers of reconnaissance and track them to the alternate storage sites they went to. Then we could target them in a 2nd wave if needed.
Moving on. The reason Iran has been processing uranium is because it doesn’t take a complex system to detonate it. The first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima and it was a uranium bomb. There was no test of the weapon before it was used. It was that simple a device.
The next bomb was a plutonium bomb which was far more complex. It involved a precise implosion by conventional explosives. It was far easier to refine plutonium so the Manhattan Projected constructed more of that type of bomb. Whether or not Iran has tested such a device or refined plutonium is unknown.
Iran has amassed even more near weapons-grade uranium, UN watchdog says
The report by the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency — which was seen by The Associated Press — says that as of May 17, Iran has amassed 408.6 kilograms (900.8 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%.
That’s an increase of 133.8 kilograms (294.9 pounds) — or almost 50% — since the IAEA’s last report in February. The 60% enriched material is a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. A report in February put this stockpile level at 274.8 kilograms (605.8 pounds).
I have to question how practical it is for Israel to maintain continuous air superiority over Iran from such a far distance. Even with lots of refueling, how long could IAF jets possibly remain on-station? Iran is a huge area of airspace to cover and control, too.
Not really since the air defense is likely to be near things they want to defend. Sure Iran could put an air defense missile battery in the far east of the country but Israeli planes will never go there because they have no reason to want to go there.
He’s talking about the offensive ballistic missile launchers Iran is using to fire into Israel, not anti-air missiles. And yeah, some of those bases are off in the middle of nowhere. But you still need to be close enough to a missile arsenal to keep your launchers supplied.
Israel has been devestating these operations - which is why the last barrage only had one missile, and came 17 hours after the prior barrage (the one responding to the American strikes), which was also small and followed a 30 hour pause.
Yep, a uranium bomb is much easier to build. I’ve had people (jokingly) ask me if I could build an atomic bomb. My response was “Yeah, if you can get your hands on enough enriched uranium, I could probably build you a gun-type bomb. A plutonium bomb? Nope, you want someone much smarter than me.”
My guess is, Iran has enough uranium that if they enriched it a bit further they’d have enough for at least one bomb, maybe two or three if they were thrifty.
My current take on this strike is: It was probably the right month to do it if you ever were going to do it, but it was likely still too late. You don’t need that many trucks to relocate about 400kg of material. So, it’s likely they were transporting centrifuges. If Iran has hollowed out a different mountain for them, you’ll just have to do it again. If they haven’t, than it’s probably a soft enough target for Israel to hit themselves.
A gun-type plutonium bomb could be built and when the Manhattan project was in full swing was considered. It needed to be longer than Little Boy though, so long a B29 carrying it would need to be modified, Then when it turned out unavoidable traces of 240Pu meant it had to be longer still, it was dropped in favor of the more technically difficult implosion bomb that could actually be delivered.
Iran has fired missiles at a US base in Qatar. They announced that it was the same number of missiles as bombs were dropped by the US which indicates that they don’t want to escalate
I think they can damage the facility enough to stop it from working yet not blow uranium into the sky.
The damage assessment is going to be tricky. If it were me, I’d drop a few more MOPs on it. Maybe it was a bad idea to being with but in for a penny, in for a pound.
