Uranium ore decaying in caverns over thousands of years into Radon.
Wouldn’t the uranium in this case be decaying at the same rate and producing the same amount of radon regardless of what stage of processing it’s in?
Remote monitoring can detect some radiation, that’s why we use remote monitoring in the first place.
Whether or not it’s useful in this particular instance is another question. One I don’t feel qualified to answer beyond just “yes, gas and dust can escape from an underground explosion because we have seen that happen in the past”. “Is able to do so” is different than proving something actually has happened.
Yep, pretty much. Blowing up a container of uranium won’t having any impact on the rate of radioactive decay.
Because of the difference in isotopes? (238U decays into detectable radon. 235U decays into radon with a half-life of only a few seconds) I image that would only make a difference if they had brought in only extremely enriched uranium to begin with, right?
Agreed. I was responding specifically to the narrow radon idea.
Are various remote sensors airborne now to smell whatever they can smell? Almost certainly. Will they smell anything interesting? Beats me.
In this case the concentrations would be higher, but if not Radon, drones can be used to check with airborne gamma spectrometry or radiation monitors.
The overall point here is that I fear that if there is no confirmation that the yellow cake was hit, it is more likely that Iran moved it from Fordo and it will use it at a later date.
But my point is, the U238 in a given mass of Uranium ore is gonna offgas a certain amount of Radon, no matter how much you enrich it (removing material that wasn’t decaying this way anyways) or whether you shape it into fuel rods or bomb components.
I seem to recall someone asking if they’d named the operation. They did - Midnight Hammer.
Was Operation Look At The Size Of My Cock taken?
You’ve got it the wrong way around; enriching the uranium increases the proportion of U235, so per @Broomstick, you’d get less detectable radon gas from highly-enriched uranium.
My bad, brain fart - yes, 235 is the fissile isotope.
The Guardian reports that Iran claimed that they moved the material from the Nuclear locations. And:
At odds with Trump’s claim of “complete obliteration”, two Israeli officials who spoke to the New York Times described serious damage at Fordow but said the site had not been completely destroyed.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, added: “As for the assessment of the degree of damage underground, on this we cannot pronounce ourselves. It could be important; it could be significant, but no one … neither us nor anybody else could be able to tell you how much it has been damaged.”
If I were Iran, I wouldn’t have said this. What they are essentially saying is “bomb us again please”.
Unless you were lying to save face.
I would hope that Israel and the US are making their own assessments and ignore any publicly released statements. I doubt those can be relied on for any intel value except which way the leaders are trying to spin things.
Thankfully we have Trump and Netanyahu, and their handpicked advisors and staff, in charge to decide what to do next.
Another analysis piece at Al Jazeera which gives a reasonable amount of detail on the three sites targeted by US bombs, and agrees with the general sentiment here that it’s far too early to state with confidence that the mission has successfully ended Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.
Notably, this quote:
“Parsi said Iran’s most valuable nuclear asset is its stockpile of enriched uranium.
“As long as they continue to have that, they still actually have very much a nuclear programme that still could be weaponised,” he added.”
Finding where that stockpile is now is a much more difficult task. I certainly don’t see it being a viable rationale for invasion - ‘Iraq’s WMDs’ spring to mind.
Everyone knew that dropping a bunker buster on that facility was a serious possibility. It’s beyond belief that Iran wouldn’t have taken steps to secure their supply of enriched uranium that they’ve spent years making.
The best way to avoid being hit is to not be there when they throw the punch.
I’ve seen claims today that is was seven B2s and fourteen BOMBS.
And I’m sure it would have been impossible for the Israelis, who you’ll recall have had total control of the Iranian sky since this started, to notice a convoy of trucks leaving the site and blow them up?
I think that was the official statement today; the numbers 3/6 came from Hannity relating a call with Trump, IIRC.