Israel pullout of Gaza poised to begin...what happens next?

Was reading today that Israel is gearing up for its expected withdrawl from the Gaza strip beginning on wednesday. Already there is a lot of violence happening there from the settlers against the government. Obviously the folks who have moved them families out there are unhappy and nothing Israel does short of chucking the whole thing is going to make em happy. Ok. On the other side, will this make the Palestinian people (and more importantly the Palestinian terrorist groups) happy? Will this bring peace to the region finally? What more must Israel do…and what must the Palestinian people do to reciprocate (if anything)? Is it merely a first step or is this a decisive event in the peace process…or is it worthless and really won’t help much, just delay the next series of blowing up buses and suicide attacks against malls?

-XT

You’re just looking at it for its symbolic value. Which isn’t so important. You can’t take symbolism to the bank. Certainly not in that region. But from a practical point of view those settlers had to be moved out at some point. And the sooner the better. They were creating a haven for radicals. The later they did it, the more difficult they’d be to extricate.

I assume you mean a haven for radical extremest Israeli’s. I’m not sure that this is going to make them less radical or less pissed off but I’m not sure if thats important or not in any case.

I thought the Israeli’s had been in Gaza for like 30 odd years…not exactly a new thing. I’m not sure how long they have been settling the area but I would be surprised if that was new either.

-XT

Yup you’re right, and it’s a very late, very small step. And I’m making the mistake of thinking about the pullout of settlers in general. Which may or may not happen. I’m not as clear on the details of the Gaza settlers. Maybe the situation is Gaza is different. But my main point is I don’t think it matters what the effect on the Palestinians is, since the withdrawal of settlers is good an inevitable for Israel. It would be nice if it calmed hostilities, but why should that be the major motivation?

As for the extremists (yes I was referring to the Israelis) - maybe this will further radicalize some. But over the long haul I can’t imagine how having growing, isolated, besieged communities of extremists is helping the Israelis.

I may be a pessimist but I see this as causing more problems and I don’t see the next 48 hours as being very peaceful. Sadly, very sadly.

Nothing will satisfy the Palestinians. So…when are the Americans moving out to give back the land to the Indians?

Whatever the morality of the European conquest of the Americas or of Zionism, the peoples of North America have long been reduced to a small minority, so “giving the United States back to the Indians” isn’t really a practical option.

On the other hand, Gaza and the West Bank still contain large, in fact overwhelming majorities of Arabs. (17% of population of the West Bank is Jewish; 0.6% of the population of Gaza is Jewish. That figure for the West Bank seems to include populations in East Jerusalem, which Israel regards as having a quite different status from the rest of the occupied territories.)

There are only four things Israel can do in the territories: Continued rule over a violently hostile population deprived of any political rights; Annexation and integration into Israel of the aforesaid violently hostile population (60% as large as that of Israel itself) and/or some sort of amalgamation of Israel with Palestine; “Population transfers” or “ethnic cleansing” or whatever name you want to call it; or Get the hell out. I think any of the first three will be very destructive to Israel, never mind the Palestinians, in the long run in the first case and in the very short run in the second and third cases. One way or the other withdrawal seems to be the only hopeful course of action Israel can take.

And I agree with you MEBuckner , that this is the best or only course they can take. But I see the extremists on both side’s using this as an opportunity to cause problems.
I hope to be wrong, and this minor rioting is nothing, but with 5,000 “extremist” hard liners that snuck in, “protecting” those who do not wish to relocate. I fear only bad things can happen.

Quite wrong. Withdrawal from the OT and a contiguous Palestinian State will do nicely.

Except, the OT is non-contiguous, so there’s really no way you can have a contiguous Palestinian State merely by withdrawal from the OT.

To me there is nothing to suggest that the Israelis left Gaza for any other reason than they felt they had to – in other words, the cost had risen beyond what they were willing to sustain. So in this sense, the withdrawal from Gaza is not part of any “process” – it’s a decision driven by a sense of pragmatism. The withdrawal changes nothing about the underlying dynamic of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, so for people to suggest that the pullout advances the “peace process” is wishful thinking.

As to what the Palestinians want… well, how about full political and social equality within Israel? Isn’t that what you or I would want, were we in their position?

What costs are you talking about? Could you expand on why you think Israel has no choice but to leave the OT?

Um…afaik Palestinians living IN Israel HAVE ‘full political and social equality in Israel’. The one thing I believe they are denied is joining the army (IIRC)…everything else they have. The thing is…most Palestinians don’t WANT to be citizens of Israel or live in Israel…they want their own country. So…I’m not seeing your statement here. Unless I’m misunderstanding what you are saying of course.

-XT

It is far from being the case that Palestinians in Israel have equal rights. They suffer from a great deal of legal and extralegal discrimination. Check out B’Tselem’s website for some of the particulars. And of course Palestinians in the occupied territory have no rights whatever.

What’s your source for this? Probably fairer to say that Palestinians would prefer to live in a country that doesn’t discriminate against them.

As to the costs of the Israeli presence in Gaza, it comes down to a demographic imbalance – 1.4 million Palestinians versus 8,000 or so Israeli settlers. I don’t know exact costs, but protecting that small a group of people, in the face of sustained opposition, was a strain on the Israeli budget and military. Plus it was, not infrequently, a source of bad publicity for the Israelis (house demolitions, civilian casualties, etc.)

Well, it depends what is ‘Israel’ and what isn’t. Only a tiny minority (guess which) of West Bank/Gaza residents have freedom of movement and employment in Israel and, most importantly, can vote in Israeli elections. Those 1 million or so Arab Israelis living outside of Gaza/WB are also far more restricted in their movement and employment rights compared to Jewish Settlers in WB/Gaza.

Were all Gaza and West Bank residents to be fully emacipated and given the vote regardless of colour or creed, Israeli citizenship would be bestowed upon the 3.2 million Muslims in the West Bank and Gaza strip, allowing them join the 1 million Muslims in Israel to form a voting block comprising 45% of the Israeli population. Just an extra 6% (comprising liberal Jews or future Muslims due to faster breeding) would put a Muslim majority in charge of the Israeli parliament.

That would be ‘full political and social equality in Israel’. Which is simply not going to happen.