The weeks of airstrikes haven’t seemed to dislodge the hizbullah guerillas from southern lebanon. The raids that the IDF have conducted have been met by fierce resistance-with many Israeli casualties. More ominously, Hisbullah is becoming stronger-there is evidence that more figters have moved in to the region. So waht can the Israelis do? Some possibilities:
Conduct a ruthless campaign of destruction-destroy villages, roads, schools, etc. This might take out Hizbullah, but kill large numbers of innocent Lebanese. it would also generate tons of new recruits for Hizbullah.
Remove the ground troops, and continue air strikes-this hasn’t prevented the missile attacks on Israel.
Negotiate a cease-fire with Hizbullah-knowing that Hizbullah will use the peace to re-infiltrate more fighters and missiles.
It is a bad situation, and one that will cost Israel dearly. Mobilizing reserves and fighting a full-scale war is hugely expensive.
As I say, the Arab world seems to be shifting toward Hizbullah-which is a very bad thing for Israel.
At this point, short of exterminating every non Israeli in the ME, I don’t how they can win, besides simply waiting a few - or many - generations for the hatred to die down. Even if they instantly killed every member, either new people would step forward into the dead men’s shoes, or a similar organization would appear with the same goals; a “victory” in name only. Everything they’ve done so far just fuels the hatred, and makes Hizballah and their other non-governmental enemies stronger.
Oh ? Are the Japanese still around ? Yes they are. We didn’t defeat the Japanese; we defeated their government and military. We say we defeated the Japanese as shorthand, but the still exist as a distinct culture.
Trying to destroy a popular movement is like trying to destroy a culture, not an organization. We defeated the Native Americans, by killing the vast majority and laying waste to the culture of the survivors; that’s what it would take. Hezbollah is just one head of a very, very large hydra.
Israel was unable to eliminate Hizzbullah in S. Lebannon during a decade of occupation, the fact that a few weeks of airstrikes haven’t done the trick is hardly shocking.
And Malthus wins the “most cryptic comment of the day” award.
Wow…so, a few weeks have gone by without total victory and Israel should hang em up because they obviously can’t win? Because they have taken some casualties? Does ISRAEL think they are losing or can’t win? Have they gotten the memo yet?
I would imagine that Hezbollah (this is how I’ve seen it more commonly spelled…gods know what the ‘correct’ englishized version is) moving more troops into the area is not coming as a great surprise btw.
This would be stupid and counter productive…and unnecessary. Its also not what Israel is currently doing, though some of the more excitable on the anti-Israel side seem to think so.
I don’t get this. I suppose it goes back to your initial assumption that what they are currently doing is failing. It doesn’t have to be either a scorched earth, kill em all and let god sort em out approach, or a pull all the troops out and only do air strikes thing.
I’m sure this would be the preference to the anti-Israel crowd, but frankly I’m not seeing it. What good would negotiation with Hezbollah be to Israel? You think HB is going to agree to put their hands in their pockets and play nice from now on? No more terror attacks? No more cross border raids? No more missiles? :dubious: Short of that, what does negotiating with this terror group buy Israel?
Now…I suppose that if Lebanon is willing to negotiate with Israel in such a way as to perminently remove HB from all of Southern Lebanon that THIS may work. I’m not seeing any movement on this front thus far though…and I doubt Israel is going to settle for less at this point.
True. But then, doing nothing would cost them decades more of periodic attacks by whatever nutball happens to take it in their head to take a wack as the Israeli’s this month.
Shifting how? Certainly they are taking notice of HB…because they are attacking Israel. Do you suppose that the ‘Arab world’ was sympathetic to Israel before this flare up, and now they are shifting to HB instead? Its more like they WERE focused on Hamas as the instrument to torment Israel, but now are shifting to HB since THEY are doing the job.
Really man, this is only troubling if you happen to be a Sunni or Shi’ita…since thats the only real ‘shift’ taking place here.
Israel has met stiffer resistance than it expected, perhaps, but they’ve lost 33 soldiers in two and a half weeks. I’m no military expert, but I don’t think that’s too much for them to bear. Given some time - and I think they have the time - I think Israel could inflict real damage on Hizballah’s immediate ability to attack the country. Since it appears they’ll be able to invade unimpeded by the international community, I would expect they’ll be able to kill plenty of Hizballah members and destroy the tunnels and weapons caches they say they’re after.
The question that remains after that is “will Israel’s actions create the next generation of militants, just as the occupation of Lebanon created Hizballah?” I think the answer is probably yes. Nobody seems to be paying much attention to that side of the issue.
Yeah, pretty much. ‘Heavy casualties’ and all, I think Israel is far from scrapping the bottom of the barrel of their available force at this point. And of course, what the OP didn’t mention was that HB has kind of been taking it on the chin. I’d guess their casualties are a good deal heavier…and their ability to sustain said casualties, their logistics to resupply, etc, is probably not as high as Israel’s. In a war of attrition Israel is going to have the upper hand…especially if they are inflicting higher casualties on a smaller force.
Don’t know…probably. What you have to ask yourself though is…if Israel did nothing at all, would the Hezbollah’s and Hama’s just go away? Would the ‘Arab world’ come around and start to like them? If not…what difference? If there is a new HB or Hamas at some point…well, they have to currently deal with the old ones anyway. What real difference, except the situation just continues. And if it would just continue anyway…
It would be political sucicide for the Lebanese government to do that at this point, I expect. They’d be lucky if they just got kicked out of power, instead of assassinated or lynched.
And what they are doing will have the same result on a larger scale, plus the costs of a war.
I don’t think you read what I wrote as I intended. Let me break it down for you here. Some rabid anti-Israeli’s claim Israel is ALREADY doing this. Your cite is by an official who WANTS to do it. See the diffence? When Israel starts that kind of indiscriminate crap then get back to me. IF they do, they will lose world support (such as it is) so fast their heads will spin. Hell, they might even get spanked by the US if they go overboard in the manner the OP suggested.
Guess no cease fire then.
Your basic assumption being that what Israel is doing won’t work, that HB will remain strong or get even stronger, etc. I disagree with that assessment at this point. I think there is a good chance Israel will so weaken HB that it will be years (if ever) before they are as strong as they are now…and able to do even the damage they are currently inflicting on Israel. IF a new group forms, it will be years before THEY are strong enough to do any serious damage to Israel. So…at a minimum (and in theory), Israel at least has the potential for buying themselves a few years of relative peace.
I granted all that, which is why I didn’t criticize Israel in my post and why I support its actions more strongly than you would expect (if you’re familiar with where I stand on these things). They still need to take all the steps they can to try to halt this cycle of violence, that’s both the humane thing to do and the smart thing in terms of their long-term security. But I can’t say I know exactly what they need to do to bring that about.
But again, it’s not like airstrikes and military ground missions are some wild new strategy for Israel, they did this for a decade+ with Hezbollah and for god knows how long with Hamas and the PLO. Instead they end up with a more hostile Lebannon and Arab world in general, a more militant Hezbollah and a loss in world opinion.
And while Hezbollah will no doubt loose infrastructure and personal to Israeli bombs, at least in the short term,its not like they needed a huge amount of troops and weapons to keep up the low-level harrasement they were engaging in before the current crisis.
I don’t think its POSSIBLE to have a more hostile ‘Arab world’ to be honest. The ‘Arab world’ has sought the destruction of Israel since its inception…and the only reason its still there is basically Israel hasn’t lost a war…yet.
You are right…this isn’t something new. It IS a change in the status quo that has reigned since that occupation though. Its also being launced in a very different way, directly at HB. So, the goals are a bit different, the tactics a bit different…and so far at least, world opinion is a bit different. Will it make a difference in the end? Maybe, er, a bit…
Seriously, I don’t know. It MIGHT make a difference this time…it might not. I really don’t see that Israel has a lot of options though. Everyone (including the Lebanese) say Lebanon is too weak to deal with HB in the south. Maybe thats true, maybe not…but it takes off the table the only real resolution to this crisis from Israel’s perspective…getting HB perminently away from the border.
Its the more sophisticated weapons (rockets and such) that they won’t be able to replenish…and what are the main threat to Israel and Israeli citizens. Certainly they can continue to use spear carriers and guns to harrass the IDF…but thats what the IDF is for after all. And, at least so far, when HB has tangled directly with the IDF they have been hurt. Oh, they have gotten their licks in too…its been no free ride for the IDF, thats for sure. But the IDF has inflicted much heavier casualties on HB than the converse…and the IDF has a lot more trained personnel available than HB does, even assuming their ranks swell with disgruntaled Lebanese (or that AQ or other Islamic militant groups head there to fight).
Shifting how? Certainly they are taking notice of HB…because they are attacking Israel. Do you suppose that the ‘Arab world’ was sympathetic to Israel before this flare up, and now they are shifting to HB instead? Its more like they WERE focused on Hamas as the instrument to torment Israel, but now are shifting to HB since THEY are doing the job.
