For now the ceasefire seems to be holding. Obviously the ‘war’ was inconclusive. What this usually means (certainly in this case) is that everyone is claiming victory. What I’d like to see is some debate (actual debate) from the various sides one who won, who lost, and why.
For reference here is a time article that gives THEIR analysis of this question:
So, Time seems to be of the opinion that Hezbollah nominally won, as Israel was unable to achieve its own military goals, while Hezbollah’s goals were simply to survive intact to fight again another day. What are the thoughts of the folks here on the 'dope? Who, if anyone, won…or is this just the deep breath before another plunge?
It’s too soon to call at this point, but I’d say it’s leaning towards Hezbollah.
Israel has at least a few scenarios that they would be happy with. The best would be Lebanon asserting control over the south and disarming Hezbollah, creating a stable and peaceful northern border for Israel. A bit below that would be having southern Lebanon occupied by an international force with teeth. That would provide Israel with security, but not stability. The last scenario that would be considered a victory is a severe weakening of Hezbollah.
At this point none of those aims have been achieved. Hezbollah has not been seriously weakened, as evidenced by the 200 rockets they fired a few days ago. Whether Hezbollah is disarmed, and power is asserted over S. Lebanon remains to be seen, but I have serious doubts that Lebanon or the international community has the commitment to breaking them.
Hezbollah probably won’t get anything concrete out of this. They won’t get Sheeba farms back, they won’t get any prisoners, and their territory will likely be occupied. The last one seems like a concrete loss, but it probably will end up being a gain. If it’s Israel occupying Lebanon then they get a huge PR boost and gain stature. If it’s the Lebanese army or some U.N. deal then I don’t see them being seriously bothered. That force will simply end up like the current U.N. force in S. Lebanon.
Despite not getting anything concrete out of this war, Hezbollah has scored a huge moral/propoganda victory. Lebanese, and the rest of the M.E. is pretty damn pissed off at Israel at this point. With thousands dead, millions displaced, and countless homes destroyed the recruiting grounds for Hezbollah are going to be much riper. This boost will strengthen their support with the local population, but that still doesn’t give them any sort of power over Israel. So they are victors in this fight, but they didn’t really win anything.
Let’s be real here. All that is going to come out of this is 1000+ dead people and more wounded, immense damage to the infrastructure of Lebanon, and the people on each side of the conflict are just more pissed off at each other. This is no more than another page in the sorry story that is the Middle East.
Hezbollah won. Israel made itself look bad to the rest of the world, provided Hezbollah with enormous numbers of potential recruits, solidified Hezbollah’s power base in Lebanon, and accomplished essentially nothing. It also made itself look weak by failing to smash Hezbollah.
I agree with Time’s assessment. Hezbollah still has its guns (albeit farther from Israel’s borders than before), and the Israeli soldiers are still captive.
The more I think of this, the more I am reminded of Tuchman’s The March Of Folly. I don’t know why Israel, and the United States for that matter, is continuing to take actions so obviously against their best interest.
One question: where are the two kidnapped Israeli soldiers? I thought the original intent of the incursion into Lebanon was to bring them back. It’s been five weeks, and no mention of them has been made.
I disagree…I think that there is a fairly clear winner and loser in this mess. Unfortunately.
My own take on this is that Hezbollah won the PR war. In addition, as their own goals were much more simplistic they also won by that measure…since they are still a coherent military force and still pretty much in power in Lebanon.
Israel on the other hand most definitely lost…unfortunately. I’m a strong supporter of Israel, but their defuse military goals and haphazard approach to achieving them, coupled with their seemingly endless desire to be everyones friend and have people love them (while at the same time coupled with a hard headed tactical approach to winning) leaves them pretty much hanging in the breeze. And pretty much having the opposite effect as they intended. It reminds me of their half way measures wrt the various occupied territories…refusing to annex the territory while maintaining a hard nosed occupation. The worst of both worlds.
I see this ‘peace’ in much the same light. I really feel bad for Israel. This fiasco is going to cost them across the board and make their security all the more tenuous. In the long run, by taking half measures with defuse military goals (which seemed to shift with the various strange political currents that run through Israel), and then compounding this by caving in to international pressure to halt before ANY of their goals were achieved (though as I said earlier, with their vague military strategy on this maybe that was impossible in any case) they have well and truely fucked themselves. I think their security wrt Lebanon and Hezbollah, as well as Hama’s and Gaza is much worse than it was at the beginning…and I shudder to think of all the new suicide bombings, rocket attacks and cross boarder raids they will NOW have to endure for the next decade or so.
I don’t believe in handicapping wars. Saying Hezbollah won because it survived ignores the obvious fact that Israel inflicted huge losses on it. Other than a temporary blow to its international image (and let’s face facts - Israel was never going to be chosen Most Popular Nation by its neighbours anyway) Israel is in the same state it was a few months ago. Hezbollah, on the other hand, is now substantially weaker in terms of personnel and material. Israel’s reputation will start recovering as soon as Islamic terrorists make a few attacks and people remember who the real bad guys are. Hezbollah, on the other hand, will spend years recovering. And I’m betting the next guy who suggests they kidnap some Israeli soldiers gets slapped silly.
Well, okay, I don’t disagree that Hezbollah comes out of this looking pretty good. They went toe to toe with the IDF and did a lot better than many entire Arab nations have done. Their stature in local Leb politics is considerably enhanced. When I say everybody lost, I’m looking at pictures of bombed-out Lebanese towns. Those people sure as hell didn’t win anything, and in some fairly significant sense, those people ARE Hezbollah. Course Hezbollah’s offering to pay for a lot of reconstruction (gotta be Iranian money there).
That is thinking in conventional terms, and will lose you an unconventional war every single time. You can’t defeat Hezbollah that way. You have to erode their base of support. And unfortunately, this war has enhanced their base of support, not eroded it.
Definitely being bankrolled by Iran (who is the big winner in this whole thing). I think that overall the people of Lebanon are neither winners nor losers…or maybe they are a bit of both. Time will tell there…though I think that Hezbollah is going to get a HUGE shot in the arm over this, and will probably be feeling their oats in a year or so. THAT could spell real trouble down the line.
According to whom? Hezbollah was firing just as many rockets at the end of the war as they were at the beginning. Sure they lost fighters, but they didn’t lose any of the senior leadership. Their weapons are already being replenished by Syria, and I doubt they will have trouble filling their ranks with recruits.
I disagree with part of this. I think you CAN win an unconventional war with conventional tactics and terms. But you have to have focused goals and probably a soul and will of iron. Israel (much like the US) has neither…and so, in real world terms you are correct…they CAN’T win in these situations. One simply has to look at Iraq and now Lebanon as examples.
Overall I think the people of Lebanon are the biggest losers. Their country’s infrastructure is in ruins, and it’s going to take years or even decades to recover from the financial hit. And of course a bunch of them are dead, injured, and homeless.
Israel basically showed that anytime it wants to it can sent its troops into Lebanon and smash any signs of Hezbollah activity and there’s nothing Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria, or Iran can do to stop this. Hezbollah may be talking tough right now (and what else would you expect?) but I’m sure the reality of the situation wasn’t unnoted.
I’ll grant you Iran came out okay; it used Hezbollah as a pawn and lost very little besides the money it invested. So I’m sure Iran and other foreign powers will quickly reinvest and try to restart Hezbollah or other equivalent front groups. But I believe recruitment will be a little more difficult this time around.
