No, but it’ll take only a few terrorist attacks to remind people that Israel isn’t a terrorist organization. Admittedly some people are unable to admit this.
Have you even heard of the concept of “vengeance” ? The Lebanese have. Recruitment will be easier, not harder.
Yes it did; what it did in Lebanon was terrorism. Some people are unable to admit that.
I disagree. I think what Israel showed the Arab world is that they don’t have the political will or the collective stomach to fight the way the Arab’s are prepared to fight (i.e. using civilians as shields and as propaganda pawns, deliberately inviting civilian casualties then launching a massive international PR campaign to spin things so guys like Der Trihs get the right message and drink the kool-aid). And I also disagree with your assessment of what Hezbollah took out of this from lessons learned. I think what you will see is not a backing off of Hezbollah in the future but an agressive push to see how far they can take things. I think that Hezbollah (and the Arab world) sense weakness in Israel and thats going to be like blood in the water.
Iran lost nothing and gained a great deal. You are right about them pouring fresh money into Hezbollah’s coffers. In addition, Hezbollah has gained enormous face in the ME by this action…and they will have no trouble at all re-filling the ranks. Folks from far and wide will be clamoring to join up is my guess.
:rolleyes: And some people are completely detached from reality. I’m not pointing any fingers here though…
-XT
Speaking as an Israeli citizen (hence, by definition, not objective): I don’t think anyone in power really believed the two kidnapped soldiers may be released via the military action. Nor that Hezbollah may be eradicated completely.
I do believe they thought they can get better results (e.g., reducing shelling of Israeli cities). In that respect, we did loose.
There is one aspect of things I don’t think I saw here. For the past few years, Israel had been shelled both from the Gaza strip and (to lesser degree) from Lebanon. Cross-border skirmishes were also frequent. The feeling (at least here, and I suspect in neighboring areas as well) was that Israel became a sitting duck. That it will not react, and may be attacked at will. This feeling was lifted. Israel demonstrated it has red lines, and is willing to defend them, even if it means paying dearly.
Oh, and one more thing. I think that if Hezbollah really considered themselves victors in this war, they would not have hold the ceasefire. Unlike Israel, they don’t seem to have much respect for international law / UNSC decisions.
Little Nemo, this may not have been reported “far and wide”, but Israel (not sure which branch of intelligence / army etc) recently (in the last year) tried to illegallly procure New Zealand passports for their agents - how is it that this action cannot be equated to “terrorism”? Trying to hoodwink a legal, democratic country does not count?
How is espionage considered terrorism?
No, it does not. Spying and terrorism are not the same thing, at all. “Hoodwinking” a country does not count as directly targeting attacks against civilians in order to instill fear.
Why would you think that it would qualify? 
I think that Israel comes out behind in the conflict, from a PR point of view, and has built a huge amount of hatred for itself.
Put yourself into this situation, you are a “law abiding citizen”. You work hard, take care of your family, live honestly. A bad element lives in your neighbourhood. You do not support them. One day, the police come and shoot up your house, destry your car and kill your dog. Who would you blame? The bad element, who did nothing to directly touch you, or the organisation who’s fingur was on the trigger?
For me, I would hold the police fully accountable. To me, this is what Israel has done. If Hizbollah are terrorists, then arrest and try them in a legitmate setting - let the world see them for the crimes they have committed.
The bible (no I am not religious) says “an eye for an eye” which I take to mean - inflict upon the wrong doer what he inflicts on others. It does not say - “your eye for your brothers misdeeds”
Simplistic analysis? Maybe. Realistic as to the emotions involved - I think so.
ILLEGALLY AND UNDER FALSE PRETENCES
Illegally and under false pretenses trying to get a passport from a soverign nation who has not acted against you, has a fully democratically elected government, is known for its freedom, is not an act of terrorism?
OK - maybe it shouldn’t be considered terrorism, but rather an act of war?
It was highly illegal. It was state sponsored. You are ok with state sponsored criminality?
As an aside - I guess then that you also did not view the bombing of the Rainbow Warrior as terrorism? (old event that still very much rankles us)
Oh, and, as for the OP:
It’s tough to call, as many conflicts are. I’d have to say, though, that the ‘winner’ is Hezbollah.
They have shown that they can attack Israel with virtual impunity, and that if Israel takes military action it will be demonized the world over. People all over will be repeating claims such as Israel’s targeting of legitimate military targets is terrorism, Hezbollah human shields mean that Israel is intentionally going after civilians with no military objective in sight, and that the bodycount indicates that Israel is trying to commit genocide, etc, etc, etc…
In the PR war, Hezbollah has all the allies it needs the world over, and the PR war isn’t inconsequential. If it leads to boycotts, economic sanctions, etc… it might very well get very difficult for Israel.
Likewise, the UN has (again) shown that it is unwilling or unable to actually stop Hezbollah from threatening/attacking Israel. I do not doubt that within a decade, at the extreme outside of a possible length of time, we’ll see Hezbollah attacking Israel yet again.
This war might, possibly, be an opening that causes Lebanon to sue for peace, but I doubt it. The UNSC isn’t going to enforce its orders to disarm Hezbollah. Iran/Syria will just rearm Hezbollah once the roads are rebuilt, and we’ll be having these same threads again soon enough.
Isreal did, to a degree, show what the consequences would be for attacking it. But it also showed that world opinion, even when based on the lowest form of yellow journalism and divorced from any actual facts, context, etc… has the power to slow or halt Israeli operations on the ground.
The world seems to have said “Sure you can defend yourself. As long as, ya know, you don’t actually fight against the people who are attacking you.”
I’m not sure that anybody really came out of this a winner except Iran… but Hezbollah has gained presige, and Israel has been forced to refrain from defending itself.
I wouldn’t doubt that within a few years time, someone attacks Israel again, and we hear about how Israel having more of an ability to hit them than they do to hit Israel is “disproportionate” and oh-so-very-unfair. All Israel’s enemies will have to do is plunk down their soldiers in residential areas, and Israel will be hamstrung, yet again.
No, again, it’s called espionage.
No… espionage is not necessarily an act of war.
Pollyanna views to the contrary, every nation that can spies on every nation that they can. What do you think that GSCB does with its time?
Nations spy on each other. If they don’t, they’re foolish. Allies spy on each other. Enemies spy on each other. Heck, even the Swiss have the Strategic Intelligence Service. Nations spy on each other. Every nation also engages in counter-intelligence.
Does it keep me awake a night? Nope.
Poor guess.
FinnAgain - “spying” is ok, in fact I would “pit” any country that doesn’t try to keep informed of what their neighbours are doing. What I have a HUGE problem with is:
- They weren’t obeserving, but actually cheating another government
- The passports were to be used for “espionage” in a third country - by implication, what does that say about New Zealand - I can see the headline now, "Three New Zealand passport holders arrested in attack on mosque"
- If this was say, Hamas trying to get the passports, would you call it terrorism or espionage? Doesn’t Hamas also have the right to undertake “espionage”?
- Israel’s record isn’t exactly very clean as regards political assisination - just because it is state sponsored makes it no less a terror attack. using New Zealand passports to insert your agents for action against a third country is very very wrong. The ends do NOT justify the means.
Let’s veer away from the usual jibber-jabber…
Everybody’s talking about how Israel’s attacks have radicalized the Arab public and given Hizballah new potential recruits. That’s all well and good. but what about the other side?
Have an of you thought of the effect Hizballah attacks on Israeli civilians (not to mention a certain degree of military humiliation) had on the Israeli public? Because let me tell you, I’m seeing a LOT of radicalization on this side of the border. 5 weeks of combat, of a million people living in bomb shelters, have utterly convinced Israelis that every muslim in the world hates us and wants us to die, and that any act of concilliation or peace on our behalf will only spell our doom. If elections were held now, I can assure you that we’d have a landslide right-wing victory, and I’m not talking about moderates like the Likud - I’m talking about the REAL right wing. I’m talking about Prime Minister Avigdor Lieberman.
And that, incidentally, is why the Palestinian peace process is dead, dead, dead. There’s no way in hell we’ll allow them any sort of independence under any conditions, because if they do, they’ll just start importing Iranian rockets and building bunkers and then we’ll have Katyushas on Tel Aviv. But, you say, what reason will they have to attack you if they have freedom?
What reason did Hizballah have? They don’t need a reason. They hate us. They want us to die.
So… sorry. No freedom for you. It isn’t going to happen. Up until last month I fully supported Olmert’s unilateral wiothdrawl plan from the West Bank, but now? Fuck 'em.
Yes, because of course it’s not terrorism when Israel or America bombs a country to, you know, terrorize them ! It’s only terrorism when other people do it !
You might want to re-think this statement.
. While it’s encouraging to have the true Israeli attitude stated: It’s not a question of what you will allow. The question is how much force it will take.
Last night, on BBC World Service, I heard an interview with a Lebanese woman who was going back South to her house, even if it meant living in a tent.
When asked about food shortages etc, she was quite emphatic that there were no problems whatsoever.
Apart from S. Lebanon, it apears that the country is in pretty good shape.
Hezbollah may have scored a ‘propaganda victory’, but only with people who are thick enough not to realize what really happened.
800,000 S. Lebanese are living in a toilet, they have had a thoroughly uncomfortable Summer holiday, and returned to find their homes smashed and their possessions scattered. Sure they will be happy to accept cash and help from Hezbollah, but they will not be keen on a repeat performance.
Israel has demonstrated that it can totally destroy infrastructure, and do so selectively, not just that, but it is perfectly willing to do so.
Israel has also demonstrated that it is capable of sticking to ‘The Queensbury Rules’, it could have cleaned Hezbollah out of the area, but it did not want the civilian casualties (not that they really care, a few rockets wipe out humanist instincts, but they did not want World opinion to demonize them).
Israel also demonstrated that it was capable of, and willing to, put troops on the ground, in numbers that rather surprized me. If Hezbollah had thought they stood a chance, they would not have accepted the ‘ceasefire’ which was conveniently negotiated on their behalf by a ‘government’ that is 75% composed of their enemies.
It will be interesting to see whether any more Katyushas are launched at Israel, Monday night some were launched from the North and landed in the South, which strikes me as like shooting onself in the foot.
I don’t think that Iran and especially Syria have missed the significance of what happened, and this morning I heard an Israeli minister talking about getting ‘a rapprochement with the govenments of Lebanon and Syria’ - a real olive branch for Syria, if I ever heard one.
It also seems that no country has actually agreed to act as UN peace keepers, which means they don’t exactly trust Hezbollah.
If Hezbollah, or anyone else takes a crack at Israel, then Israel will be totally justified in responding in a totally unrestrained manner - and I doubt that anyone with any sense believes anything else.
If I were involved in running Israel’s policy, I would set out a formal ‘menu’ of future cause and effect. Publish a checkerboard map of the area, and vow that if any Katyushas come out of any part of a zone, then 12 hours later that zone, and only that zone will be carpet bombed. I would extend the policy to Ghaza, but I would add a major named utility as a bonus.
On the propaganda side, Israel has not ‘lost’ any favour with Arabs, you can’t lose what is not there. As for acting as recruiting sergeants for Hezbollah, or anyone else, well that role has been pretty well filled for years. As for more suicide bombs, well I suspect Hamas is already working at full capacity.
The only thing I can see that is unfortunate for Israel, is that its own population is not happy with the outcome. The stuff about them dithering over objectives, strikes me as absurd, it was quite clear what they were going to do, and they did it. However they stopped short of ‘endgame’ due to international pressure - endgame was firebombing the South, totally flattening the place, and picking off survivors as they tried to escape.
Definitely not risking entering the area, just setting up a cordon and keeping it in place, until any survivors died of natural causes.
Israel has displayed a weakness, not a military one, but that it was squeamish about World opinion if it killed civilans. I rather suspect that a lot of people were pleased to see that ‘weakness’ - but very few would expect to see it again.
I can see the Golan Heights and the Shebaa Farms being handed over to Syria, neither are much use to Israel, and it would be useful having them occupied by a state that has a strong vested interest in keeping its infrastructure intact.
Early on in this episode, I heard a Syrian minister making threats about retaliation if Israel attacked Syria - a sure sign that they were getting worried. I suspect that they would rather like to come to a ‘rapprochement’ - and it would be really handy if the USA and others designated Syria as the well financed rebuilders of S. Lebanon.
After that rant, my real point is that if Hezbollah play up, then Israel can take the gloves off, and if they don’t play up, then Israel has provided a practical demonstration of the very minimum it will do if attacked.
Not a bad outcome, now their problem is convincing their own population.
‘I dare do all that doth become a man - who does more is none’
Israel stopped just short of being a monster - well a long way short, in my view.
Travelling from which direction?
Alessan, I fully understand your view, and expect that it his held by the vast majority of your fellows.
It would be unnatural to hold any other view, if someone started bombing the UK we would all feel the same way - oops, someone did, and we get on quite well with them now - well mostly with their descendants.
However, you have demonstrated the very minimum of what you are capable of doing, and that will not be lost on the inhabitants of the West Bank and Ghaza.
It is very possible that quite a lot of people are looking sideways at Hamas (whose supply of funds have been cut off) and are wondering whether Abbas is a rather more attractive prospect.
I reckon that Abbas would rather like to dis-arm and dissolve Hamas, which would restore the Israeli revenue and open the floodgates of European aid.
A Palestinian state that has a strong vested interest in guarding Israel’s borders against its own nutters, and confiscating and destroying rockets, is not that bad a prospect for Israel.
|Israel stopped just short of being a monster - well a long way short, in my view.|
Nice one :-}
Realistically, short of sitting there and being used as a duck in a shooting gallery, Israel used the minimum force - I’ll bet they dropped more leaflets than bombs.
There are 800,000 refugees returning, how many of those would be alive if Israel had pulled off the gloves ?
So you think spies in deep cover carry their own passports?
:dubious:
Yes, Mossad took the passports so that they could attack a freaking mosque.
And no other country would have any way of finding out who sent those spies. Having phony passports is totally bulletproof.
The simple act of getting passports? Espionage. Obviously.
Eh, they’re not a sovereign nation but sure, why not. Go hog wild.
Cite for Israel targeting civilians rather than terrorists?
Indeed. Especially since no nation’s intelligence service would’ve been fooled for very long once they captured the agents.
“Hey, these guys have fake New Zealand passports, they own no assets and have no employment history in New Zealand, they’re not in any New Zealand phone books, and some of the people named in the passports are verifiably different people than these foreign agents. Well, I guess these guys are really from Kiwis.”
Never said they did. in all cases. And speaking of cases, the case under discussion in this OP is the current ‘victor’ of the conflict. If you want to maintain that having a fake passport is terrorism, I guess I can’t stop you. You should know that virtually nobody else on the planet shares your view, but hey, ah well.
Unlikely, as the Golan is a perfect spot to launch mortar attacks. My understanding is that it is held primarily for security reasons, and unless Syria becomes a peaceful neighbor, I can’t see Israel giving them a perfect spot to shell them from.
This doesn’t surprise me, but it’s good that someone pointed it out. But as we all know, world opinion is perfectly capable of falling such that it could be summed up:
“Israel defends itself from Hezbollah, Hezbollah gains supporters, Israel is in the wrong. Hezbollah launches a war of aggression against Israel, many Israelis become more hardline, Israel is in the wrong.”
The only inhibition to Israeli aggression is the opinion of the US. By that measure Israel killed in the vicinity of the maximum permissible.