Whew! That’s got to be the stupidest post I’ve seen in, oh, a day at least.
How about this?
For the same reason Napoleon couldn’t defeat the Spanish guerrillas.
Or, if you don’t like that, for the same reason France couldn’t win in Algeria.
Etc., etc.
Iran is bankrolling them and Syria might threaten (citing precedent as least as good as the Israelis have got) to invade Lebanon and maybe not stop there. The parallel holds.
For Hezbollah it is just a pretext, for Israel it is a buffer zone.
People keep saying that this is a ‘guerilla war’
it does not look like one to me, Israel has no beef with most of Lebanon, they just don’t like having a load of nutters firing long distance rockets at them.
Hisbollah are in a very tightly defined area (or rather areas), they have rather unfriendly people behind them and are using those of their own people who were intimidated enough or stupid enough not to get out - as human shields.
Israel can make S. Lebanon extremely unpleasant to live in, wait until enough non-combatents have got out, and enough Hesbollah have been drawn to the front, then they can use a scorched earth approach to wipe out anyone in the area.
The situation has more in common with a Medieval siege than guerilla warfare.
Where guerilla warfare might turn up is in the non-Hezbollah parts of Lebanon, but that would have nothing to do with Israel.
Personally I reckon Hezbollah don’t stand a chance, if they stay where they are they will be pounded out of existence, and if they retreat and try to mingle with the rest of Lebanon they stand a very good chance of being massacred. There is a chance that they’ll get hustled over the border to Syria - but that is rather a civilized solution.
This is a surgical operation on a bandit stronghold
and it was Hezbollah that started it, which means they don’t have much sympathy.
Precedent shows that Syria has not been very successful at directly attacking Israel in the past.
They did quite a good job of occupying Lebanon, but somehow I don’t think they would risk it. It would be quite easy for Lebanon to call on others for help.
Recent history has shown that it is unwise to be viewed as the aggressor.
Except that between the destroyed roads and the Israelis shooting anything that moves, they probably can’t get out. As well, the other name for your “scorched earth approach” is mass murder.
Well, both sides have medieval minds.
Destroying a good chunk of a country isn’t “surgical”, and I don’t see much sympathy for Hezbollah; just the citizens of Lebanon.
If mine was the stupidest post you’ve seen in days then you obviously don’t get out much. Is it your serious contention that guerilla warfare is universally successful?
Iran is not the old Soviet Union, both in terms of what it can give to HB and the fact that it has to do so covertly. They can’t exactly roll in ships or trains full of goodies and bags of money, right? As for Syria jumping in…for one thing I believe thats a bunch of hot air. But even if I’m wrong and they DO decide to jump in, Syria ain’t no China.
Oh, and Israel is a bit more effective (and stable) than the South Vietnamese military/government.
I don’t think your analogy is worth the powder to blow it to hell (not just for these reasons but because the situation isn’t even remotely similar politically or militarily). But you seem to have a friend in pantom wrt this, so it isn’t a total wash.
Hizbullah is responding to the Israeli offensive with resistance on the Leb side, while lobbing rockets aimlessly into Israel. Point of the latter? Nothing really, except to kill.
Said rockets are small, and apparently can be launched from just about anywhere by just about anyone. Being small, they are also cheap. Being cheap, they are numerous. Being numerous, it will be devilishly hard to get all of them.
You can dream until the cows come home that Israel will get all of them. Dreaming won’t make it so. A guerrilla force likes nothing more than it likes an enemy like Israel, with lots of expensive, high-powered weaponry. With their machine-guns, rpg’s, and small rockets they can fight them forever. And a day.
So, a summary of what’s been accomplished so far:
Lebanon’s been blown to hell.
Israelis all over the north have been forced to cower in shelters as hundreds of rockets rain down on them.
Israel has managed to take a couple of small positions inside the border.
I’ve written elsewhere what I thought Israel and the US should have done against Hizbullah and Iran, so I’ll just sum it up with this from the Art of War:
As for what’s happening to Israel and the US now, it’s along these lines:
As for whether guerrillas always win, well, obviously no. But mostly they’ll manage to run down a foreign conventional army, sooner or later. Why do you think Israel isn’t trying to overrun the southern part of Lebanon? They remember what happened the last time they occupied that ground, and if they need a reminder of what it was like, they need only look at what’s happening to our troops in Iraq.
Indeed, between that and this war, Iran is sitting mighty pretty. Personally, I’m at the point where I’m beginning to think that Dubya is deliberately working for the interests of Iran. He certainly couldn’t do a better job for them if he was trying.
And being as HB can’t manufacture them they will have to be shipped in from outside the country, then brought overland (in numbers big enough to sustain the current rate of fire…which they are doing now because they stockpiled them in advance)…across what is pretty much a war zone patrolled by Israeli air. Possible sure. But it won’t exactly be a cake walk.
Where are you getting this stuff from? Did I say that Israel can get all the rockets? If so do you have a cite of me saying that bullshit?
As to the rest I think you are living in a fantasy world if you believe that HB is rubbing its hands with glee over an ‘enemy like Israel’ pounding on their door. THey have certainly hurt the IDF in the encounters so far…but they have been hurt a hell of a lot worse for their troubles. And I don’t believe its reality based that HB can (or would) fight in the current situation ‘forever. And a day’ as you put it. Inflict enough casualties on ANY force and it will eventually withdraw, if only to lick its wounds and reform its ranks. Where do you get this picture that HB somehow has endless resources of men and material, that somehow logistics are irrelevent to them, etc?
I suppose this depends on your definition of ‘blown to hell’, but ok.
Again, a bit of an exaggeration and overstatement of the facts…
One extreme to the other, ehe? What do you base this incredible statement on…and has HB been notified? The Israeli’s claim to have destroyed at least 50% of HB’s combat capability. Perhaps thats an exaggeration (it probably is)…but you seem to be saying that Israel has only done minor (1%? 5%) damage. How do you justify this…based on what?
In response to your own earlier comments, and to fight my own ignorance I started this thread in your honor to discuss guerrilla/insurgencies in history. Feel free to participate.
Iraq is nothing like whats going on in Lebanon. As for what happened the last time, recall that it took 10 years and mounting international pressure to finally get Israel to leave. I don’t believe that this situaiton is comparable to that one…for one thing, Israel doesn’t want to occupy Southern Lebanon…they simply want to take out HB military installations, supply depots, rocket launchers, and paramilitary units…and they seem to be doing a fairly good job of it from what I’ve seen.
But but but… earlier you pointing out that an analogy did not have a 1:1 correlation with current events was refuted with the firm factual rebuttal that it was the stupidest post of the day to be seen.
Who needs cites when you can call an argument dumb?
So, you think Israel can defeat Hezbollah, without exterminating or expelling the entire Southern Lebanese population among which the Hezbollah militants are hiding? How? If they couldn’t do it when they occupied Southern Lebanon last time, why should it be any different this time? You can’t exterminate termites with a machine gun! You can try and try, but at the end you’ll only bring down the house, and the wreckage will still be infested with termites. And in this case, fumigation is not an option, as I hope you’ll agree!
Lets talk about that earlier occupation since it keeps coming up BG. Here is the Wiki cite for it. I’ll toss in some of what I feel are the more relevant parts, then you can read the cite and toss some back…then we’ll get to your question if we still need to. Fair?
Just a brief background.
Ok…so, it was really the PLO that Israel was after here. They were worried that the PLO would use Lebanon as a second front to attack them from. Nothing shocking yet.
Just a bit more background. If you read carefully some of this is disputed a bit further on…I’ll leave that part for you if you like.
Ok, now things start getting interesting…seems there was a ceasefire and withdrawl agreement between Israel and Lebanon…but that the LEBANESE backed out (at the urging of Syria…go figure). Interesting how history repeats itself, ehe (hint: Think Palestine).
The other interesting thing here is that Israel withdrew most of its troops in January of 1985, leaving mostly militia with a scattering of regular IDF forces.
And then the public moral rot sets in (interesting how history repeats itself, and all that, ehe? :))
Ah yes…one last thing. Lets take a quick look at those horrible casualties inflicted on the IDF (and on everyone…actually, some of THOSE figures ARE pretty horrible IMHO):
According to the Wiki cite this is total casualties in Lebanon between 1975-1990. Its cite 30 at the bottom if you are interested.
Anyway, my post is way too long as it is so I’ll let you read all that then reply…then we can get back to your question if you still feel the need.
Hey, I aim to please… and to ruthlessly crush innocent nations under my cruel jackboots of woe. I kick puppies, too.
Well, how are you using the word “defeat”? Are we using the obsolete definition of destroying something, or the more accepted definition of nullifying something?
If Hezbollah cannot resupply, if their logistical and material capabilities are signifantly degraded, if there is a peacekeeping force that will actually keep the peace, then they can indeed be nullified, at least for a certain span of time.
If, of course, we are using defeat as a synonym for totally-wipe-out, then of course only something approaching genocide will satisfy the defintion, because we’ve just defined it that way.
First the Israelis ‘bombed’ South Lebanon with leaflets telling people to get out.
True they attacked anything that looked as if it might be carrying missiles, a minibus full of kids was one example, but huge numbers of people did get out.
After the incident when about 50 non-combatents (women and kids) they announced a 48 hour pause, but continued going for anything that looked military.
Incidentally those people were the families of ‘tobacco farmers’, by that I read that they did not want to lose their Leb Red harvest.
The distances are miniscule, walkable, and I’ve heard radio interviews with people who /drove/ out, admittedly it took days, but that was down to traffic.
The Israelis don’t want to kill non-combatents
more accurately they don’t want the World’s newspapers and TVs covered with pictures of dead kids and old women.
They also don’t want any arms coming into the South, or any arms being pulled back for use from Beirut.
What they want (I believe) is to turn the place into a battlefield without camp followers, at that point they can have a massacre.
What they are doing is highly surgical, the majority of the Lebanon is totally unscathed, hence the shock about Israel destroying two water drills on trucks parked in a totally non-Hezbollah area.
Remember, the Maronites and the Druze are historical allies of Israel, they want to keep them in good condition so that they can wipe out any Hezbollah combatents that escape the net.
From what I have heard, Beirut is business as usual.
You mean like the minibuses you just mentioned ? To the Israelis, a military target is anything outside their borders, apparently. The “48 hour pause” is meaningless; it’s not like they actually care.
Well, so far that appears to be the majority of their victims.
Which can’t be done, especially after wrecking the infrastructure and killing those who do try to get out.
Pure, utter garbage.
Yeah, sure they will. Just like the Shiites love us for getting Saddam out of power.
One extreme to the other, ehe? What do you base this incredible statement on…and has HB been notified? The Israeli’s claim to have destroyed at least 50% of HB’s combat capability. Perhaps thats an exaggeration (it probably is)…but you seem to be saying that Israel has only done minor (1%? 5%) damage. How do you justify this…based on what?