Israel vs Gaza 2021… wtf?

Generally not as far as I understand it: Qassam rocket - Wikipedia

That’s one example of the type of rockets Hamas frequently uses, there are tons of variants and a lot of them are kind hacked together things. They are often fired from cheap fixed-angle launch frames that basically let you do no more than “aim it at Israel.”

Edit to add: The Palestinians are regularly modifying these rockets to shoot further and further as best they can, but my understanding is they aren’t getting much better with precision. Precision guided rocketry is a non-trivial thing, and you would likely need to smuggle in those from state actors, many of whom aren’t interested in giving them to the Palestinians.

Mass displacement isnt something new. The Allies allowed the forced expulsion of millions of ethnics to create ethnically purer states post WWII.

While ethically reprehensible, it did remove some of the causes of the previous 2 World Wars.

Apologies.

I think these discussions are very informative. IMO.

Seems to me the Palestinians lack the ability to adjust fire. Ideally, they would shoot a rocket, see it was off by two kilometers to left, then fire the next one and see it was one kilometer to the right. Eventually they would be able to hit something. Thy seem to lack this ability. They are firing almost blindly.

Thank goodness.

If humans were Vulcans I’d say that is logical and it might even work.

But this is Earth.

I think to some extent that is slowly changing over time. Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel decades ago (and yes, Sadat was assassinated for daring to do that) that has held. That doesn’t mean they’re friends but then they aren’t required to be - they are able to discuss issues and haven’t been shooting at each other, which has been of benefit to both sides.

Normalization of relations between Israel and other Arab/Muslim/Gulf states recently is also a positive development. Again, nobody involved has to be actual friends, but recognizing the existence of Israel, more or less accepting it as a done deal that’s not going away, working out ways to settle disputes without bloodshed… all positive developments.

So while it might still be a non-starter for the majority of Palestinians, it might no longer be true for the majority of Arabs or Muslims. It’s still very tentative, but I think it’s a spark of hope that eventually, down the road, there might be a resolution that doesn’t involve glowing craters in a glassed-over desert.

You mean… like how the US has treated Blacks and Natives for most of US history? I do hope it does escalate to a sort of Civil War, especially not with modern weaponry. Although it’s NOT the Arabs and Muslims or even for the most part the Palestinians living and working in Israel as citizens, it’s the folks crammed and jammed into Gaza/The West Bank. 'Cause, you know, ramming people into densely packed small areas of real estate with minimal means to make a living never works out well.

That’s a slanted way to put it.

What it means is that the Palestinians are out-gunned by a technologically superior foe. With that asymmetry in casualties it’s an indication that the most likely outcome is that the Israeli side wins. Which, in my view, might be a reason for Hamas to cut their losses and stop firing rockets into the side of militarily superior foe but hey, no one puts me in charge of anything.

Also:

^ I have to agree with that.

I grew up in south east Michigan, which has the largest Arab/Middle Eastern population in the US. A LOT of the kids I went to school with had parents who moved to the US to get away from the violence and war “back home” and give their kids a chance at a decent life. Not saying everything has been all sweetness and light, but here in the US it’s not unusual for Jews and Muslims to join in common cause, and the immigrants and their children by and large manage to live next door/down the street from “the other side” without violence constantly breaking out.

It is possible for these folks to live together in peace even if they don’t love each other, the problem is the small minority who have zero problem with killing members of their own group to reach the other side and kill still more people. With a lot of folks who just want to get on with their own lives caught in the middle.

Hamas only retains power as long as they have the boogey-man of Israel - if peace broke out they’d be, at best, just another political party and more likely irrelevant in short order. They have an incentive to keep poking the tiger, and they don’t seem to care how many of their own have to die to keep them in power.

Heard today on the news that 1/3 of Hamas’ rockets actually malfunction and fall on Gaza, killing their own. I don’t know if that’s true, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all. If it is true, how many of those casualties trotted out as being victims of “Israeli aggression” died from “friendly fire”?

Likewise, on the Israeli side there are Jews who are happy to oust Palestinians and take over their lands and homes, and would happily continue to push out people who have been resident in that area for centuries.

If only both sides could actually control the hotheads… but I have no idea how we would get there from here.

Actually, Jordon has taken in so many Palestinians that ethnic Palestinians now comprise 1/3 of Jordanian citizens. I think Jordan has done its share, but I also think that they might not be able to sustainably absorb more Palestinians.

Meanwhile, why don’t more of their “Arab brothers” step up?

Frankly, I think some Arab nations view Palestinians as handy pawns/cannon fodder in international affairs.

Yes, as a matter of fact there WERE incidents of what we now call terror in post-war occupied Japan. There weren’t a lot of them, but they did exist even if they have been largely scrubbed from US history. Plenty of Japanese were NOT happy about losing the war.

My understanding is that the Palestinians in Jordan were there prior to the creation of the state of Israel. I admit i am but an expert on this, but wasn’t the west bank part of Jordan before the wars? And there were Palestinians all through Jordan, including the parts the Jordan kept.

Yup.

The Palestinians have been extremely poorly treated by the world, and their own leadership.

When Turkey invaded Cyprus there were lots of displaced people. But they didn’t perpetually live in refuge camps. They were allowed (encouraged) to move to the territory “their people” still held, and they started new lives, and their grandchildren are doing fine.

The West Bank prior to the 1967 War was occupied by Jordan’s army, but in terms of international law, it was intended to be part of the Arab state of “Palestine” as per the 1947 “UN line”, the Gaza Strip was likewise occupied by Egypt prior to the 1967 War, but was not legally part of Egypt.

Basically the 1947 lines are drawn, and meanwhile a huge civil war erupts in British Mandatory Palestine between Jews and Arabs, which the Jews mostly win. Then 1948 rolls around, Israel declares its independence and creation of the Israeli state, it gets early recognition and support from the United States, and defeats an Arab coalition. In the aftermath of this war Egypt occupies Palestinian land on the Egyptian side of Israel, Jordan occupies Palestinian land on the Jordanian side. This was for two reasons–strategically both countries intended to fight Israel again, and that land would be valuable in future wars as a staging ground, secondly while the state of Israel threw itself together during the 47-48 period, no state of Palestine was really able to emerge. The Palestinians lived in a sort of quasi-state status between 48-67; for example Egypt issued special Passports to Gazans that weren’t quite the same as recognizing them as citizens of Egypt per se, but as functionally legal responsibility of the Egyptian government but not citizens of it.

Edit to add–I’m frequently sloppy and incorrect in some of my terminology here.

To be clear, the UN lines drawn in 1947 are sometimes called the “UN Line”, pictured here:

UN_Palestine_Partition_Versions_1947.jpg (1370×2838) (wikimedia.org)

The “Green Line” is the 1949 Armistice line at the cessation of the string of wars that started with the Arab-Jewish Civil War under British Mandatory Palestine and basically culminated in Israel thwarting Egypt and Jordan from invading Israel. The 1949 Green Line is here:

1949 Armistice Agreements - Wikipedia

Most people who historically have supported the two-state solution have used the 1949 line as the baseline for further discussion. The Palestinian maximalist claim is the 1947 boundaries (with the caveat that a significant portion of the Palestinian people view that as their legal entitlement, but that they are morally justified in removing all Jews from the region entirely at some future date when they are able to do so–i.e. an aspirational goal of removal of Jews from the region entirely.)

The Palestinians have been in the general area for centuries. What is now known today as Jordan was originally known as Transjordan, meaning “Land on the Other Side of the Jordan River” and the population on both sides of that river were 90% Palestinian prior to WWII.

After modern Israel became established a lot of the Palestinians in the “Land on This Side of the Jordan River” (so to speak) moved to Jordan, ballooning the Palestinian portion of Jordan significantly. Those that were there from before the establishment of modern Israel are (it is my understanding) called “Jordanians”. The 3 million Palestinians I referred to are Palestinian refugees and their descendants, people whose families, prior to 1945, lived in what is now Israel. The entire population of Jordan is 10 million, so nearly 1/3 of its current population are people who say they have claims to land where Israel is now located.

No, not really. In effect, to use a WW2 simile, Israel is doing the equivalent of bombing the ball bearing factories, where a military target was the aim (but many civilians died) , while Hamas is firebombing Dresden.

Hamas wants the retaliation. Terrorism keeps them in control.

This post is using terminology that contributes significantly to common misunderstandings about the region.

Saying that “the population on both sides of that river were 90% Palestinian” is not an accurate description of the ethnic and cultural situation. Palestinian did not have a widely accepted usage as a term describing an ethnic group (and only sorta does now), nor did it have a history as a term describing a country prior to WWII. Prior to WWII the region that makes up the combined area of Israel + Palestine, was under a League of Nations Mandate given to the British, i.e. “British Mandatory Palestine” as it is commonly called. This was the successor government of the region, succeeding the Ottoman Empire.

The term Palestine is akin to the term “Great Britain”, Great Britain as we know is not a country, it is an island, occupied by the countries of Scotland, England and Wales, which are part of the United Kingdom. Palestine is also similar to the term “The Levant”, which is a name referring to a geographic region that does not, and has never, mapped 1:1 to any political boundaries (the Levant is made up of modern day Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan etc.) Since ancient times this spit of land that makes up modern day Israel/Palestine was known as “Palestine”, but there is not a significant history of an ethnic identity linked to this name.

Under the Ottoman Empire it was part of Ottoman Syria, and was divided into three sub-units, the Beirut Vilayet, Syria Vilayet and the Mutasarrifate of Jerusalem. When the British were given League of Nations sanctioned control of the region, they opted to use the well known, especially to Western geographers and writers, historical geographic descriptor “Palestine.”

It should right away be pointed out that Transjordan, which in modern days is known as Jordan, was not part of Mandatory Palestine. So to say Palestinians made up 90% of the population on both sides of the river does not accurately describe the lexical or legal situation prior to WWII. It could be argued that everyone, regardless of ethnic background or religious background, who lived in Mandatory Palestine was a Palestinian–in fact that is precisely what British Mandatory Palestine passports said: British Passport - Palestine.

Across the Jordan river, also a British Protectorate, but not part of Mandatory Palestine, was the Emirate of Transjordan, ruled by Abdullah I bin Al-Hussein, who was a political leader in the Ottoman Empire that had sided with the British during WWI, and was basically rewarded for it–he established the Emirate of Transjordan on his own, and because he had sided with the British during WWI they recognized him as Emir and established a protectorate over his country–which was granted full independence after WWII.

What is more correct to say is that on both sides of the Jordan river, about 90% of the population were Arab, Arab is an ethnic identity, Palestinian largely is not. Historically Arabs thought of themselves primarily in a tribal sense. The origin of the term Arab in fact is tied to being a descendant of one of the original 12 Tribes of the Arabian peninsula (today the term more broadly is often used to refer to anyone whose native tongue is Arabian.) While the original 12 tribes are no longer intact, the Arab world was organized in a tribal way for over a thousand years into modern times. In fact in many Arab communities today tribal affiliations are still of extreme importance, in some Arab countries and regions traditional tribal affiliations have decreased in importance.

Some Jewish extremists will utilize distortions of these facts to imply that modern day Palestinians have no intrinsic right to live in the region because there is no real historical “Palestinian people.” Of course this is not true. The modern day Palestinians, an Arab people, descend directly from Arab peoples who have lived in the region at least a couple hundred years and in many cases probably much longer. The region I give a caveat for that is that a lot of the Palestinian ancestry actually traces back to Bedouin tribes, who were historically nomadic. In fact in late-era Ottoman Palestine there were Arab villages who were part of clans that had still-nomadic Bedouin members, and while they might belong to the same clan they had a bit of disdain for each other, the Bedouins not respecting the villagers giving up the traditional nomadic lifestyle and vice versa. That’s why it gets a little complicated when talk comes to how long someone has been where in this circumstance, but it is generally safe to say “several hundred to at least 1,000 years” depending on who and their specific family tree.

One of the major reasons the Arab world has historically (arguably less so today) been obsessed with the Palestinians interests is precisely because of their shared Arabic ethnicity and culture. There are Arab clans whose membership crosses national boundaries (which were generally not drawn to reflect anything much other than sometimes Ottoman historical boundaries–but the Ottomans did not draw provincial lines based on ethnic communities either.)

Nationalism became a global phenomenon in the second half of the 19th century, and this affected the Ottoman world as well. There was some very nascent, early germinations of a conceptualized Palestinian identity as Palestinian Arabs, distinct from other Arabs, but this was much weaker than the larger pan-Arabism that grew from the nationalist movement.

The real growth in any sort of Palestinian-specific nationalism came during the “troubles” of British Mandatory Palestine, and frankly much of it was driven by a desire to flesh out what it meant to not be a legitimate Palestinian–which specifically meant not being Jewish (there were plenty of Arab Christians in the region back then, less so now but some still remain, and they were in specifically anti-Jewish alliances during Mandatory Palestine.) In the late Ottoman Empire a law was passed providing for basic equality of all Ottoman citizens, albeit still giving Islam a paramount place. Prior to that, there had been a very specific hierarchy in the Ottoman Empire–under the old millet system, specific groups basically governed themselves for most day to day affairs, as long as they remained loyal to the empire and paid their taxes. The top millet were Muslims, and any legal dispute involving a Muslim was settled in a Muslim court. The next highest millet were “Greeks” or the “Roman Millet” as it had been called (this was in reference basically to the conquered peoples of the old Byzantine Empire, who had always referred to themselves as Roman as did their Turkish conquerors), note the Greek Millet was primarily based on practicing Greek Orthodox Christianity, and ignored ethnic realities (there were many Orthodox Christians in this millet who were not Greek, but Greeks had primacy among them in how they were treated in society.) After the Greek millet was the Armenia millet, which was made up of all Christian Armenians regardless of specific religious affiliation (Armenians were historically religiously divided into three different Christian churches.) The lowest millet was that of the Jews. When the Ottomans equalized treatment, it was said that the Greek Orthodox sentiment was “we have been made the same as Jews, we had been fine with Islamic supremacy”, anger at this was part of what lead to the Greek revolutions against Ottoman rule (it certainly was not the only reason, but losing their status as the “privileged minority” in the Empire certainly helped enflame it.)

After the Arab-Jewish Civil War in the final year of the Mandate, and the Arab-Israel War from the 1948 proclamation of Israel (this war technically ended in an armistice, and thus is still ongoing between Israel, Syria and Lebanon–Jordan and Egypt have formally made peace with Israel), at this time a more modern Palestinian identity did begin to develop, specifically because you had effectively stateless Arabs in the Palestine region, who had previously formed now-disempowered nascent civil structures (e.g. the Palestine Arab Congress and other bodies.)

While ultimately it may seem like a quibble, it’s important to understand because the idea that most people on both sides of the Jordan river saw themselves as a specific Palestinian identity is not true, they say themselves as Arabs.

We should also not suggest all or even most Palestinians are Hamas or Hamas enablers/supporters either, like several posters are wont to do in this very thread. Almost half of all Palestinians are minors. How exactly are these minors all responsible for the current situation, where killing, brutalizing or forcebly displacing them is justified? It’s fucking infuriating that this absurd rhetorical question has to even be asked.

I don’t really think most people understand Hamas to constitute all Palestinians. At the end of the day though interactions between countries tends to be based around who is running them. So while not all Israelis are right wingers, Israel is ran by a right winger at present. Not all Gazans may support the goals of Hamas, but in so much as Gaza has any government at all it is Hamas that constitutes that government.

Wouldn’t be so sure of that. We came pretty damn close to a war that would have ended our country (and Russia) in October of 1962. If you think the human race isn’t dumb enough to wipe itself off the face of the earth, think again.

Yet we havent. Without nukes the West and the Soviets would have gone to war over the division of Germany and the Berlin Airlift. India and China would have gone from decades of border skirmishes to full out war. Israel would have been steamrollered by the larger countries surrounding it.
The death toll from WW1 was 20 million
The death toll from WW2 was 75 million with 40 million being civilians.
Thats 95 million deaths in 31 years. Nukes make sure that this never happens again.

Um… nukes make it less likely to happen again.

If that doesn’t work… it gets real ugly, real fast.

Um…yes they do. In the 75 years between 1870 and 1945, between major powers, there were two world wars, the Franco Prussian war and the Russo Japanese War. In the next 75 years there were no wars between major powers. Nukes make war between major powers unthinkable.

It is indisputable that a nuclear weapon has been used in war. Twice.

The notion that it is somehow impossible for them to ever be used again is delusional. It is highly unlikely, but not impossible. And these days, it’s not just “major” powers that have them. Should a nuclear war break out it will rapidly dwarf the death toll of any prior war.