Israel Will Attack Iranian Nuclear Reactor after US Election?

Israel has purchased 350 special bombs…these are designed to knock down structures via high-explosive blast. I’ve also heard (from an Israeli friend) that the IAF has been conduction an unusual number of low-level practice flights (bombing runs)? It would seem to me then, that an attack upon Iran is imminent …probably after the US presidentuial election.
My question: to me, it seems that the Iranian facilities are too far for Israeli F-16s to get there without refuelling…is it possible that they have a secret base in Kurdistan? This would make the run to Iran a lot easier.
Does anybody know the state of iran’s air defense radar system? Did they get anything from Russia to replace the 1970’svintage radars that the Shah purchased from Raytheon?
And, would an air raid on Iran be a pushover (like the 1981 raid that detroyed the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor)? :eek:

The also newly purchased Israeli F-16 planes are able to reach Iran without refueling.

Part of the Iran Contra weapons were SAMs (surface to air missiles) if my memory doesn’t fail me… so that would be the greatest irony if those Israelis get shot down by weapons Reagan provided !

I don’t know physically where those reactors are… if they are in the far side of Iran it certainly will be hard for Israelis to get there without being shot. They would have to go around. Except for US controlled Iraq I don’t see any neighbors willing to let Israel fly freely. They most certainly would need refueling … probably air refueling. Does Israel have air tankers ?

The big loser of course will be the US… Israeli jets most certainly would use Iraqi airspace, US technology and weapons, and probably US AWACs help too. The US would probably be better off doing it themselves IMHO. If your going to get the blame and suffer the consequences… why let Israel get the credit ?

Rather than building structures via low-explosive blasts!? What unusual behavior for a bomb!

Israel purchased 500 BLU-109s, which are ‘bunker-busters’. That just means the outer case of the bomb is reinforced, so the thing can penetrate through heaps of concrete before exploding. A guidance package is attached to these, usually laser, but GPS is all the rage now.

They would probably use F-15Is, sort of an Israelized F-15E Strike Eagle. Granted, they have those gee-whiz F-16Is as well, so who knows.

No. While I don’t know this to be a absolute fact, I feel pretty confident in saying there is no secret Israeli base in ‘Kurdistan’. Why not just paint American markings on their planes and use American bases? (If we are going with goofy conspiracy theories, that is.)

Pretty much old and nasty, though the Russians are looking to sell their new S-300 SAM system to Iran. Thanks, Russia! Their newest planes are the ones that Iraqi pilots defected there with (MiG-29s and Su-24s). The rest of their airforce is old American stuff or newer Chinese stuff that is just copies of old Russian stuff.

Probably. Pvt.Murphy rules all when it comes to military affairs, but the Iranian airforce and air defense network is nothing to write home about.

A raid from Israel would have to fly over either Syria, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia, before it got to (presumably friendly) Iraqi airspace. Of the three, Syria has the crappiest airforce, in terms of quality, and Jordan in terms of quantity, but Saudi Arabia has a not-terrible airforce, and I don’t think they would be too keen on allowing Israeli overflights. Any of the three could cause problems for the raid.

It would be sort of pathetic if little Israel had to carry out the raid while ‘the international community’ held talk after talk after talk after talk after talk about getting Iran to disarm, but I have little doubt that they will strike as soon as is expedient for them to do so. (Unless America strikes first, or the IAEA actually gets them to stop [hah!])

P.S. Rashak, some HAWK sams were transferred to Iran…from Israel! The circle of irony is complete. (Those systems are no longer working, though. They now have older Russian crap, SA-5, SA-4, that sort of stuff. Not much in terms of search radars, either.)

Why then?

I say after the US elections. A GWB victory will be taken by Ariel Shahron as a “green light” to do what he wants. This means:
-amassive strike against Hamas and the PA leadership-possibly the death of Arafat (via one of those "daisey cutter’bombs
-destruction of the Iranian nuke capabilities
-completion of the “security wall”
If Kerry makes it, Sharon will probably retire and a new Israeli leader will take over.

I’d have to agree with ralph124c’s last post except for the Iranian nuke removal. The idea of allowing some intentional Chernobyl is, I pray, too scary even for the brave Mr. Bush.

The Gaza strip seems to be heating up (BBC story). So I guess perhaps we’ll see if a Kerry election halts that escalation.

I believe that the bunker-buster bombs have to be dropped from high-altitude to be effective. The original versions of these bombs were made from surplus Army artillery tubes. The IAF would probably fly in at very low altitude until they were in the area of the target.

They can be lofted at low altitude. Fighter comes in fast and low, and pitches up while still away from the target, and releases the bomb. Bomb fly along its arc, and guidance system does the rest.