Yes, but things have changed since then, in ways which make any sort of cooperation between Netanyahu and Arab groups much less likely.
I’ve been reading sentiments such as this here since October 7th, that Bibi’s has no political future, that he’ll be unceremoniously sent packing as soon as the war is over. He seems to have gotten around that last part by assuring that the war never ends and in fact expands to even more countries.
But I can’t help but wonder if there’s also a bit of an echo chamber effect going on here similar to how everyone was certain that Trump didn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell to win in 2024 after January 6th. And yet he won, not just the electoral but the popular vote as well. And here we are, Bibi is still in power and very well may remain in power, and Likud still seeming likely to have won the most seats, though not a majority. So much for being held responsible for October 7th anytime this decade it seems.
One of our friends who has dual citizenship flew to Israel to vote against Netanyahu. She and her husband aren’t exactly rolling in dough, but she decided it was worth spending the money.
…have they? This is from a Google AI search, but it’s quite difficult to prove a negative; that said, it says:
It appears to be a considerable exaggeration to say that the Joint List has condemned Hamas.
Even Abbas has done infinitely more than that, condemning October 7th both individually and officially as Ra’am and getting rid of Iman Khatib-Yassin.
If any of their members would individually like to condemn Hamas (or are among the couple who already have) and break with the Joint List in order to coalition with the Zionist parties, I would welcome them with open arms.
This is bad news, and should not be dismissed.
For those who don"t know, Channel 14 is as bad as Foxnews (and they are proud of it). Their flagship primetime program is a political panel talk show called “The Patriots”, with a demogog moderator similar to Tucker Carlson..
BUT…their incessant proclaimations that King Bibi will win are not crazy.
Because there is a hugely important statistic which will change all the numbers that have been announced so far. That statistic is the count of the absentee ballots.
So far, all the projections are based on exit polls. But the absentee ballots (called in Hebrew “double envelopes”) have not yet begun to be counted. Many of the double envelopes are from soldiers, who tend to be right wing. In previous elections, the absentee ballots have added about one seat to Bibi’s bloc.
Right now, the two blocs are almost even, with Bibi only one or two seats behind. This WILL change when the absentee ballots are counted.
Thank you for the clarification. I should have said that prominent leaders of both parties have condemned Hamas, and that AFAICT no current leader of either party has declined to do so.
I’d hope that is good news for Liberman rather than Netanyahu, since Liberman is also right wing but doesn’t have an extremely embarrassing military failure under his belt.
Even if Bibi was two or three seats ahead himself, that’s a very long way from 61. Who is he gonna draw over? Joint List politicians? Right wingers whose central campaign promise was the draft? There is no good way for him to grow his coalition.
See my comments in post #88.
After Eisenkot fails, Bibi gets his chance, in December.The Israeli public, (and the left-wing parties), is already exhausted and does not want a new election, so the left’s failure gives Bibi a boost, as the final option.. Some members of the left will give their vote to Bibi to make the 61 total. Bibi will lure them with promises them that he has changed, and will do what is best for the country.
By then the country will have suffered horrible damage from Iranian missiles, and Bibi will offer the (false) appearance of stability.
I’m not nearly as pessimistic as you about Eisenkot, but the one thing that does give me pause is that like the Jeb! campaign, Yashar! has that stupid exclamation mark.
Yeah, that exclamation point bugs me, too. Thanks for some much needed humor.
(We now return to our regularly scheduled thread.)
Projections as of this moment show a tie at 51-51, with 18 Arabs. Assuming none of the Arabs will ever vote for Netanyahu, that will mean the opposition needs to get a single vote from either the Arabs or Charedim, which for some of the opposition parties will mean breaking campaign promises.
Summing up the dilemma confronting the opposition, Ta’al chairman Ahmad Tibi just tweeted “Either Bibi or Tibi…”
Well, it’s one of those mornings where I wish I never woke up. 66% of the votes have been counted, and currently Bibi is leading Eisenkot 54 to 48, with 18 seats to the Arabs. The way things stand now, there are two options: either one or more of the “change” block parties breaks its pledges and goes with Netanyahu, leaving him in power with a slightly more moderate government; or we have another round of elections in a few months, and I don’t see why there would be a different result.
Who the fuck screws up an exit poll so badly?
What does all this mean for Smotrich and Ben Gvir?
Are people embarrassed to tell anyone except a Channel 14 pollster that they voted for Bibi?
Either that or they like messing with the “liberal media”.
Not to be a pessimist, but the big change could be if some of the small parties that didn’t make the cut decide not to run a second time, and if that happens I think it favors Netanyahu.
But we might not get there. Eisenkot could resort to a minority government with the Arab parties helping but not sitting in coalition, for example. Although I think he wouldn’t get to try until Bibi fails to build a government?
Also, I read an opinion piece that pointed out that another election could be a problem for Bibi, because until that election there would be a majority in Parliament that’s strongly opposed to him, and they could pass a law banning him from running. I’m not sure how true that is, but it’s an interesting idea. The Likud is such an empty shell that I’m not sure what an election where it is led by anyone else would look like.
Would such a thing be constitutional?
He’s been indicted for several corruption charges. They can pass a law prohibiting anyone under indictment from serving as PM.
It wouldn’t be the “No Bibis Allowed Law”, it would be a previously considered law that bans someone who is indicted and on trial for crimes committed while in office from running again until the trial is over.
But de facto it WOULD be the “No Bibis Allowed” Law and so the Supreme Court would have to consider that.