Wiki article. And some scandals about Bibi just broke. Will that hurt the whole Likud Party’s chances, I wonder?
So, is this speech to Congress going to help Bibi back home or hurt him?
These elections are boring. The result (Netanyahu as PM) is guaranteed, the only question is what the coalition is going to be.
For those who would like to understand why that is so - the polls have been very steady, and they show the following (numbers are plus-minus 2-3%, but it doesn’t matter):
24 - Labor
24 - Likud
12 - Arab Joint List
12 - Yesh Atid
12 - Bayit Yehudi
8 - Kahlon
6 - Yisrael Beitenu
6 - Shas
6 - UTJ
6 - Meretz (if they’re lucky)
4 - Yachad
The only path for Herzog (Labor) to create a coalition is:
Labor+Kahlon+Yesh Atid+Meretz = 50. The Arab List will not join a “Zionist” government, but may support it from the outside. Shas/UTJ cannot sit with Yesh Atid and Meretz in the same government. Just impossible.
So - 50 plus 12 from outside. That is not viable. Minority governments are very rare in Israel, and being propped up by Arabs is going to be a death sentence for any future Leftist hopes.
So - Netanyahu is going to be the PM. The only question is who is going to join the coalition. I suspect it will be
Likud+Bayit Yehudi+Yisrael Beitenu+Kahalon+Shas+UTJ+part of Yahad without Marzel = 65 seats.
Thanks. I didn’t realize it was such a foregone conclusion.
Oh, you can rely on that, Israeli politics shares the predictability of Newtonian physics. As a result, an atmosphere similar to Taiwanese politics, with the same somber, austere and predictable proceedings.
Has no Israeli government ever included the Arab parties before?
Apprently, Bibi’s speech to Congress did not give him the polling-bounce back home that he hoped for.
That’s not a fair characterization of Terr’s post. He’s saying Netanyahu is a shoe-in, but it’s not exactly clear how the coalition will be formed. There are several roads leading to victory, but none* leading to defeat. Much more like Quantum Mechanics than Newtonian Physics, if you must. After the election, and the particle collapses into one of the possible eigenstates, none of those eigenstates is called “Labor”.
*none, baring some wildly unexpected event in the next 2 weeks.
AFAIR, none did. In fact, the Arab List solemnly declared that it will not join any “zionist” government this time either. Not that they will be offered to join. They are not government material. Kinda like David Duke isn’t, in the US.
It is remotely possible for Likud and Herzog to form a “unity government” with probably the religious parties making up the 60, (remotely because that would be, IMO, the last resort) but Netanyahu would still wind up PM.
Well, they could rotate. But, more seriously, Bibi’s been saying it won’t happen, though, although that might change given circumstances. But UTJ sources told Arutz Sheva last month that there’s no way UTJ is going to join a unity coalition.
I don’t know. I’m not going to say never, but I don’t see a Likud/Zionist Union gov’t. If there is one, it lasts a week. My question is, is Yachad going to make the threshhold?
Cuz that worked so well last time it was tried 
The religious parties found out that even when they are out of government, the sky does not fall for them. So now it is harder to pressure then into coalitions.
I hope it does. Marzel was a friend of mine when I lived in Israel.
Marzel was a bullfrog.
Was a good friend of mine.
Never understood a single Hebrew Word,
but his Manischewitz sure was fine!
Apart from the proportional-representation system facilitating it, why is it that there are so very many parties and factions in Israeli politics, and the lineup is always changing?
I think proportional representation and a fairly low electoral threshold is the reason why.
Baruch Marzel?
I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.
I thought that, aside from the Israeli Arabs, and perhaps some of the Haredi, Israel actually had a fairly high turnout rate.
Do you realize just how low the “proportional-representation system” in Israel is?
BTW, not a snarky comment, an honest question.
I believe(anyone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong) a political party merely needs to get 2% of the vote to get MKs(members in the Knesset).
It’s not like Germany or Italy.
At one point, it was even lower. Just 1%.
Between 60-70%, actually. But I wasn’t talking about voter turnout. I was talking about electoral threshholds…which is the percentage of votes a party needs to get an MK, which I see you’re also remarking on. It’s 3.25% now, but this is the first election it is, and it was as low as 1% throughout the 80s.