Israeli Knesset election 03/17/15

[BrainGlutton]

Likud has a five-point lead over ZU. (However, that’s within a 4% margin of error.)

[Ibn_Warraq]

@Captain_Amazing

Between 60-70%, actually. But I wasn’t talking about voter turnout. I was talking about electoral threshholds…which is the percentage of votes a party needs to get an MK, which I see you’re also remarking on. It’s 3.25% now, but this is the first election it is, and it was as low as 1% throughout the 80s.

Thanks for the information.

[BrainGlutton]

ZU pulls ahead of Likud.

[Do_Not_Taunt]

@BrainGlutton

ZU pulls ahead of Likud.

Does this change the conclusion that Netanyahu is certain to be PM in your opinion - or in yours, Terr?

[BrainGlutton]

@Do_Not_Taunt

Does this change the conclusion that Netanyahu is certain to be PM in your opinion - or in yours, Terr?

Well, if a Likud/ZU coalition is necessary to form a government, will Likud enter into any coalition where Netanyahu is not PM?

[iiandyiiii]

Here’s another story asserting that Netanyahu is in real danger of losing. I’m not knowledgeable enough on Israeli politics to evaluate it.

[wonky]

Sam Wang discusses the election here. I’m completely ignorant, so I’m not vouching for his take, though he does interesting stuff around US elections.

[BrainGlutton]

Netanyahu: If I’m elected, there will be no Palestinian state. (Reversing his position from a 2009 speech.)

[BrainGlutton]

Hmm. This election could make the Arab “Joint List” the third-largest party in the Knesset.

[Alessan]

@BrainGlutton

Netanyahu: If I’m elected, there will be no Palestinian state. (Reversing his position from a 2009 speech.)

He’s veering to the right, to get votes back from Bennet.

Interestingly, one unattributed campaign poster I’ve seen a lot in recent weeks says “With Bibi-Bennet we’ll be stuck with the Palestinians forever”.

[Donald_Rump]

Does anyone know when a) the election results will be known and b) when the prime minister gets selected?

[BrainGlutton]

@Alessan

He’s veering to the right, to get votes back from Bennet.

Interestingly, one unattributed campaign poster I’ve seen a lot in recent weeks says “With Bibi-Bennet we’ll be stuck with the Palestinians forever”.

But, does any non-Arab Israeli party in the field actually endorse a two-state solution? Or a one-state solution?

[Alessan]

@BrainGlutton

But, does any non-Arab Israeli party in the field actually endorse a two-state solution?

Sure - most of the left and center support a two-state solution, and even Lieberman’s hard-right party supports a limited form of Palestinian independence. The just define it in terms of how it benefits Israel.

That’s the whole point of the campaign I mentioned. According to the left, it’s the *right *that’s dragging Israel towards a one-state solution, which will mean the end of our country as we know it.

[Alessan]

Well, I voted.

It seems as though voter turnout by 10 AM was the highest it’s been by that hour since 1999. I’m not sure what that means.

My polling station sure was packed, I have to say, although I’ve never voted at noon before so I can’t really compare.

[Onomatopoeia]

The polls have tightened (of course) and I suspect Bibi will retain his seat. However, I will be overjoyed if he loses.

It is time for a change, and although I am not convinced there will be much substantive improvement under Herzog’s leadership, I don’t believe it would be worse than under Netanyahu whose latest pronouncement squashws any hope for a two-state solution.

[BrainGlutton]

@BrainGlutton

Has no Israeli government ever included the Arab parties before?

@Terr

AFAIR, none did. In fact, the Arab List solemnly declared that it will not join any “zionist” government this time either. Not that they will be offered to join. They are not government material. Kinda like David Duke isn’t, in the US.

That might perhaps be about to change.

@BrainGlutton

Hmm. This election could make the Arab “Joint List” the third-largest party in the Knesset.

[BrainGlutton]

@Alessan

Sure - most of the left and center support a two-state solution, and even Lieberman’s hard-right party supports a limited form of Palestinian independence. The just define it in terms of how it benefits Israel.

That’s the whole point of the campaign I mentioned. According to the left, it’s the *right *that’s dragging Israel towards a one-state solution, which will mean the end of our country as we know it.

Could you endure the end of your country as you know it, or would you emigrate?

[Alessan]

@BrainGlutton

Could you endure the end of your country as you know it, or would you emigrate?

I’ll stick around and hope to win the inevitable civil war.

[BrainGlutton]

@Alessan

I’ll stick around and hope to win the inevitable civil war.

Somehow I expect such a war would be mainly Jew vs. Jew, with the Pals on the sidelines. In fact, it’s amazing you haven’t had one yet.

[BrainGlutton]

Bibi is really flailing now.

At midday, Netanyahu claimed high Arab voter turnout was putting his right-wing Likud Party’s rule “in danger,” according to a posting on his Facebook page. “Arab voters are going to the polls in droves. Left-wing organizations are bringing them in buses,” he said.

He also called on supporters to vote for him to “narrow the gap” between Likud and the Zionist Union. “With your help, and with the help of God, we will build a nationalist government that will protect the state of Israel,” he said.

Netanyahu’s comments toward Israeli Arab voters were remarkable because they targeted Israeli citizens, and they quickly attracted accusations of racism. Israel’s Arabs, who make up 20 percent of the population, have long complained of discrimination.