So, when do the polls close in Israel?
ETA: Nevermind. I see that the polls close at 10:00 PM, approximately 1.5 hours from now.
Related questions: Will the Israeli media release exit polling results as soon as the polls close? If so, how good are they, typically? How long will the official count take to complete?
Yes, pretty good, and tomorrow morning.
And then the question is whether there will be a new government in place before I’m there for a visit in May (not that it will make any difference to the average tourist). 
well, let’s be a little more specific:
1.yes, the media will release exit polls results immediately (about a half hour from now)
2. yes those results are pretty good and accurate
3. yes, the official count will be complete by tomorrow morning
but…
NO, tomorow morning, we will NOT know who won the election. We will not know who won for another month or more. If the left-wing party (led by Herzog) is the “winner” (by most votes), that does not mean that they will lead the government. It will take at least a month for them to negotiate with 5 or 6 other parties to build a coalition. And if they fail to create a coalition within 60 days, they will officially be declared the loser of the election, and Netanyahu will be officially offered the job.
Don’t count on the new government being in place. And it certainly won’t matter to the average tourist…or, for that matter, to the average Israeli citizen. Life goes on, you know.
Unless there’s a civil war.
Is there any possibility that Likud will prevail by a seat or two, but fail to build a coalition because of the nature of the campaign these last two days? Or is pretty much everyone in a potential coalition already to the right of Likud?
You didn’t include a smiley, so I don’t know if you are joking.
So just to make things clear. folks…I assure you that, yes, Brainglutton is joking.
Israel is a western democracy, ya know.
its not likely. Likud has plenty of options, but the internal horse trading with all the parties involved will be endless and very tiresome to follow. It will take a month or more, but it will be accomplished.
Let’s go already. I am sitting on the edge of my seat.
I just returned from a 10-day trip to Israel. Loved it.
Anyway - Channel 1 exit poll at close of polls:
Likud 27
Labor+Livni 27
Arab List 12
Yesh Atid 12
Kulanu 10
Bait Yehudi 9
Shas 7
UTJ 6
Meretz 5
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Right Block + Koolanu = 66
As I said, Herzog has no path to coalition. Most he can hope for is joint coalition, and no prime-ministerhip.
Isn’t there some big controversy over forged Kulanu support for Likud?
Kahlon didn’t promise to support Likud. He promised to support anyone that will give him the post of finance minister. I think Bibi will be able to do that fairly easily.
Why wouldn’t Labour be able to make the same promise? (Asked genuinely out of ignorance!)
Terr and Alessan: I know it’s not as easy as that, but what’s your take on the likely coalitions given the election results? who gets left out and who gets ‘in’ the majority?
See post #39.
Because Labor needs, in addition to Kahalon, the support of 12 Arab List votes to form a government. Note: to FORM the government, the 12 Arab List members have to be in it. (For the government to exist later, as a minority government, they don’t have to be in it, they can support it from the outside. But you cannot form a minority government).
And that will not happen because: 1. The Arab list will not join a “Zionist” government, and 2. If that somehow happens (it won’t) that will be suicide for the Labor in the next elections.
I realize that these are just preliminary results but as an American, I’m just curious - what happens in the Isreali system if there’s a real tie at the top? Do both parties get to try and make a coalition? Is it pistols at dawn? (please say yes).
So the idea is that no one wants the Arab List in their coalition (and the feeling might be mutual), and the remaining MKs have no clear path for labor if the exit polling is correct?
But has the Arab List ever had so many seats? Seems possible both sides would change their orientation if/when they get enough power to matter.
Oh well, not the outcome I’d hoped for.
Nah it is a lot simpler.
The “biggest party” thing is just bragging rights. There is no requirement that the President has to give the task of forming the government to the biggest party. After the results are announced, the parties come to the President and each gives him the name of the person they want to form the government. The one that gets the support of 61 votes gets that task - note: this is just 61 votes recommending who will try to form the coalition first.