The exit polls show 12 for the Arab List. In the current Knesset, Arab parties had, all together, 11. The difference is not huge.
Easiest would be Likud+YB+BY+Shas+UTJ+Koolanu. There is no pairing in that coalition that would absolutely refuse to be in government together.
While Bibi is negotiating to create that coalition, he will be threatening them with making a joint coalition with Labor+Livni. Together, according to the exit polls, they have 54-55 seats, so in theory they only need two or three of the parties in the above list to join to form a government. Which will allow Bibi some room in the negotiations. But IMO the chances of joint coalition are very small.
Is there enough party discipline to ensure that any party will definitely get the votes of all it’s MKs? Or do individual MKs ever break ranks on a PM vote?
Well, for example, there is absolutely no party discipline in the Arab List. They only formed the united party because of the high percentage of vote needed to get into Knesset which they would not have passed if they ran on their own, but immediately after the elections they are basically the same three parties with their differences that they were before.
If you’re a Palestinian living in Gaza, it’s not clear to me that you prefer Labor over Likud, do you?
Neither’s coalition seems posed to do anything meaningful about the current stalemate, but there will surely be less international sympathy for Likud now that the mask is off with regard to support for a two-state solution, and given Netanyahu’s demagoguery of the last 48 hours.
Oh. Uh. So what people were voting on today was for who each party will recommend to the President as their choice for the guy who forms the parties? Then the party who can find 61 votes (from other KP’s?) gets the job?
Well, people were voting for parties today. They were not voting for the parties’ recommendations to the President, necessarily (in some parties’ case the recommendation is automatic, for others there is room for decision). People elect parties to Knesset. Those parties then decide how to form the government.
But these silly “too close to call” articles I see in US press are just stupid. There is no difference, in principle, whether it is Likud 27 and Labor 28 or vice versa. There is nothing “to call”.
It’s a shame to see that Netanyahu resorted to racist rhetoric at the very end (“Arab voters are streaming in huge quantities to the polling stations” – as if it’s bad and wrong if Arab Israelis choose to vote), and even more of a shame that the tactic may have actually worked.
As I seem to be with most issues related to Israel, I’m with Jeffrey Goldberg here too. Like him, I also used to think of Netanyahu as a potential force for real positive change. No more, sadly.
So, at the risk of oversimplifying: Netanyahu’s side was expected to lose badly, but a tie/draw is considered to be a moral victory?
It’s not clear to me that you can vote anyway.
You can vote for Hamas.
There was no expectation that Netanyahu’s side will lose, badly or slightly, and there is no tie/draw in the (at least the exit poll-preliminary) results. Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister.
Can you? I’m surprised the Strip these days is even organized and orderly enough to have PA elections.
The latest in exit polls shows that Yahad passed the minimum percent, which bolsters the right-wing camp quite a bit. (And if true, congrats to Baruch Marzel).
No, of course not. I wasn’t implying otherwise.
So, 1) what kind of Israeli government would UAL join, and 2) what kind of government could UAL join that would not be electoral suicide for anyone? Serious question. Important one, too, I doubt the territories mess is ever going to be resolved until the Arabs are in the government.
That could change, too, couldn’t it, now that they’ve learned the advantages of unity?
One that renounces Zionism?
As long as Zionism is supported by a huge majority of Israeli Jews, none.