Israeli Knesset election 03/17/15

[iiandyiiii]

Didn’t some of the Arab parties support Rabin (or was it Barak) from the outside?

[BrainGlutton]

@Terr

One that renounces Zionism?

As long as Zionism is supported by a huge majority of Israeli Jews, none.

Well, I see nothing here to suggest UAL denies Israel’s right to exist.

[Terr]

@iiandyiiii

Didn’t some of the Arab parties support Rabin (or was it Barak) from the outside?

Only after a majority government was formed, and then lost its majority. You cannot form a minority government.

[camille]

@Richard_Parker

If you’re a Palestinian living in Gaza, it’s not clear to me that you prefer Labor over Likud, do you?

Neither’s coalition seems posed to do anything meaningful about the current stalemate, but there will surely be less international sympathy for Likud now that the mask is off with regard to support for a two-state solution, and given Netanyahu’s demagoguery of the last 48 hours.

From Yoni Mendel’s diary about the election in London Review of Books:

When Abdallah Abu Rahmah, one of the leaders of the non-violent Palestinian struggle in Bil’in (a village in the West Bank whose inhabitants have been demonstrating against the separation wall for the last ten years), was interviewed for the website Local Call, he had no second thoughts:

"If the Labor Party wins, it will not be so good. There is not much difference between Labor and Likud, and we actually prefer Likud. The Labor Party has better public relations in the world, but they do the same things. They do not promote peace, they build settlements and walls and make wars, but they get legitimacy for this from the world. For us in the Occupied Territories, Lieberman is probably best, as he together with Netanyahu damages Israeli foreign affairs … We don’t want Labor, as we don’t want another Peres who will just help to ease the pressure on Israel."

The whole thing is worth a read, but this summarizes it:

There are, I believe, three main blocs. The first wishes to maintain the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in its current form, preferably with no negotiations, in a liminal situation between cold and open war. The second wishes to dance with the conflict – to negotiate and negotiate as if there were no tomorrow. For the third bloc, there is no conflict at all: the elections are about VAT, the middle class and ‘what it means to be Israeli’.

The upcoming elections don’t promise anything, are hardly about anything, and the fact that I’m writing here again means there isn’t much new to write about. Since Netanyahu was re-elected in 2009 nothing good has happened in the Promised Land, either to its Jewish or to its Palestinian inhabitants.

[Ibn_Warraq]

@BrainGlutton

Can you? I’m surprised the Strip these days is even organized and orderly enough to have PA elections.

They’re supposed to have them regularly, but they keep getting canceled or postponed. IIRC, the last ones were around 6 years ago.

[Salvor]

@Terr

Because Labor needs, in addition to Kahalon, the support of 12 Arab List votes to form a government. Note: to FORM the government, the 12 Arab List members have to be in it. (For the government to exist later, as a minority government, they don’t have to be in it, they can support it from the outside. But you cannot form a minority government).

And that will not happen because: 1. The Arab list will not join a “Zionist” government, and 2. If that somehow happens (it won’t) that will be suicide for the Labor in the next elections.

Sounds like both the Arab Israelis and the racist Israelis are shooting themselves in the foot then. The arab Israelis would rather refuse any power to choose the less of two evils from their perspective in removing Bibi, and the Israelis in general (according to your suggestion) would never tolerate a majority government including arabs because… why? They are filthy arabs not worthy of being associated with? That would so turn off the bulk of the Israeli population that it would cause support for labor to implode?

This sounds like a dark future for that nation.

[Captain_Amazing]

It’s not a majority government including Arabs that people have a problem with. There’s been an Arab cabinet members before…Labor Party member Raleb Majadele, Minister of Science, Culture and Sport, and also a Druze Minister, Laport Party member Salah Tarif, Minister without Portfolio. The difficulty would be in bringing the Arab parties into the Cabinet.

[Terr]

Apparently exit polls significantly underestimated the right wing’s strength.

The official count still continues, but with 90 percent reporting it is:

Likud - 30
Labor/Livni - 24
Arab List - 13
Yesh Atid - 11
Kulanu - 10
Bayit Yehudi - 8
Shas - 7
UTJ - 7
Yisrael Beiteynu - 6
Meretz - 4

Likud’s surge from 20-22 in the last polls before the election to 30 in official results is fairly amazing. Seems like the right-wing voters massively lie to pollsters.

[Terr]

Seems like right-wing voters lying to pollsters is not confined to Israel.

[adaher]

Obama isn’t just great at getting the right elected in America, he’s getting the right elected in Israel too.

[iiandyiiii]

@adaher

Obama isn’t just great at getting the right elected in America, he’s getting the right elected in Israel too.

Translation: “I interpret every event worldwide in the way that reflects most poorly on Obama because I dislike him so much.”

[adaher]

I think you’re avoiding the argument. Netanyahu played off Obama as brilliantly as Schroeder played off Bush.

[iiandyiiii]

@adaher

I think you’re avoiding the argument. Netanyahu played off Obama as brilliantly as Schroeder played off Bush.

Netanyahu is obviously a skilled politician, and he may have successfully convinced some Israelis that Obama is a threat to Israel (in addition to the racist rhetoric regarding fear of Arab Israelis voting). But that doesn’t provide any information about whether or not anything Obama actually did helped Netanyahu (or hurt his opponents). You’re just making a lazy, pointless (and substance-free) attack because you don’t like him.

[Velocity]

@Terr

Seems like the right-wing voters massively lie to pollsters.

Some pollsters project what they *want *to happen, not what will actually happen.

[Terr]

@Velocity

Some pollsters project what they *want *to happen, not what will actually happen.

Some may do so, but it would be hard to argue that all do that, and even harder that all do it and all want it to happen in one particular way. In the case of Israel elections 2015, every pollster was wrong, way outside the margin of error.

[elucidator]

Very similar to Bush v Kerry exit polls, and equally understandable. If I had voted for Bush, I damn sure wouldn’t admit it.

[Terr]

@elucidator

Very similar to Bush v Kerry exit polls, and equally understandable. If I had voted for Bush, I damn sure wouldn’t admit it.

That’s why you didn’t vote for Bush.

[Terr]

BTW, I just read how exit polls are conducted in Israel - the polling organizations set up their booths some distance from the actual poll and ask people who have just voted to “repeat the experience” - that is, go into the pollster’s polling booth, pick the same piece of paper that they picked in the actual polling booth, put it in an envelope, then drop it into the pollster’s box. So the exit poll is just as secret as the actual poll. I think that removes the lying on purpose explanation…

Maybe the exit poll people had some massive screw up in picking the polling places.

[astorian]

@elucidator

Very similar to Bush v Kerry exit polls, and equally understandable. If I had voted for Bush, I damn sure wouldn’t admit it.

This makes no sense. Nobody who DID vote for Bush was embarrassed about it, and none would have denied it to a pollster.

There ARE elections in which the so-called “Bradley Effect” MAY lead people to lie about who they voted for. But the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections were not among them.

[BrainGlutton]

@astorian

This makes no sense. Nobody who DID vote for Bush was embarrassed about it, and none would have denied it to a pollster.

And you know that how?