Seems about as credible as North Korea’s weekly threats, but I got some questions on this anyways.
Could they actually do it? I mean, are their ships capable of making it out that far without refueling? How many ships could make the voyage? How long could they stay stationed there given the supplies they carry?
(Where) Would they make port in the Americas? We’re not at war with them, but then we don’t have a lot of relations either, and I don’t think it’s likely they’ll settle down and stock up in the US. Is Venezuela a decent guess?
What would the US response be? Would we stop them in the mid-Atlantic in international waters? Would we shadow them and stick around to make sure they don’t cross the invisible border line? Denounce them, but otherwise ignore them militarily? I’m not even sure when the last time there were ‘hostile’ vessels off our shores.
They do - by world standards, a pretty capable one, actually. A few large destroyers, 14 very modern frigates, and a few inactive submarines, along with assorted coastal patrol craft. Not that much compared to the American navy - but then, no one has all that much compared with the American navy. And a modern frigate belonging to a NATO member state is not, as I understand it, the sort of thing that you want to be on the wrong end of.
I don’t know enough about the Iranian Navy to know if they can logistically pull it off, it’s not outside the realm of possibility but I imagine the force will be weak in comparison to any American Naval force.
I imagine the feelings of the naval brass will be “lol”, essentially. Iran’s Navy is like a spitting kitten compared to the U.S. Coast Guard, and less than nothing when compared to the U.S. Navy (which is larger than the next 13 combined, I don’t know if that is by tonnage or number of vessels.)
While the navy brass will not feel any grave concern, I do imagine they will be super prepared and we will have ships in the area to prevent any violation of our territorial waters.
Could they send a warship or a few warships to our coast? Probably. They probably have some sort of fleet oiler or logistics ships that could carry fuel and supplies for the warships (this is a guess, but I know they’ve sent ‘fleets’ through the Suez and IO, so they must have something to support extended operations). I doubt they could stay on station off the US coast for more than a few days though…they would need some sort of resupply base for a longer deployment than that, unless Cuba is going to let them use their ports for that.
I don’t believe they will be allowed to make port in the US, but Cuba is a possibility…anything to tweak the US’s nose. Venezuela is another possibility I suppose. Really any neutral power that is susceptible to bribery and wants to tweak the US’s nose would do, in a pinch. But you’d need someplace with decent fleet support capabilities, so my guess is Cuba (assuming the Cubans are keen on the idea, which I’m not so sure of). Either that or this is just a propaganda mission (even assuming it actually happens) and they will basically travel to the East Coast somewhere, steam about just outside the international waters limits (with a nice escort of USN ships and probably with air craft buzzing them and annoying the shit out of them) and then pack up and go home, mission accomplished (Ahmadinejad could strut around on the deck of one of his ‘fleet’ frigates in a flight suit stuffed with wool, in memory of Muhammad).
Our response will probably be covert laughter and probably the dispatch of some USN ships to shadow the ‘fleet’, keep an eye on them and possibly harass them the way we used to harass the Soviets…just to let them know we care. I doubt we will try and stop them or seriously interfere with their transit, or really even care all that much. We’ll probably be interested in whether they even CAN make such a trip and what problems or issues they run into. Other than that…meh.
I have a ton of respect for the Canadian Navy and it is pretty respectable by world standards.
However I will mention that the U.S. Coast Guard by itself has 4 times many active duty personnel than the Canadian Navy (this does not count USCG civilian personnel.) The coast guard has 244 cutters, 204 air craft, and 1500+ smaller vessels.
The 244 cutters would definitely not be something to sneeze at, although they aren’t comparable necessarily to the heavily armed Canadian frigates (they lack that level of firepower), they would probably be of concern to the Iranians, who I know make use of some very lightly armed vessels.
Well, he (The Prophet, may peace be upon him) was a shepherd (or sheepherder), and I couldn’t think of anything quickly that Ahmadi could stuff down his flight suit having to do with the goats, camels or horses…
Good idea. Hang a big sign spelling that out in Farsi, on a ship full of bikini babes… It’ll be like the propaganda value of people jumping the Berlin Wall.
I doubt we will try and stop them or seriously interfere with their transit, or really even care all that much. We’ll probably be interested in whether they even CAN make such a trip and what problems or issues they run into. Other than that…meh.