I think you’re claiming that the people are feeling bad about the economy, while the article is claiming the economy is good. If so, you missed the point of the article.
The article shows that people self-report that, and are spending as if, their personal situation is good.
Of course rents are part of the CPI calculation and the measurement tends to really lag, because leases stick around for a while. Some economists strip that out in order to get a better read on current inflation, rather than year-ago inflation.
The rest of your post seems pretty vague to me, and I’m not interested in debating feeling and uncited assertions any more in this thread.
And yet, the actual polling cited by the article says exactly the opposite. If you ask people about their own personal situation, conditions and expectations are in line with what the “ivory tower intellectuals” say they should be. It’s only when they ask about general economic conditions that we get the doom and gloom. Especially when the guy they don’t like is in the White House.
Like it or not, for most average people there is “the economy”. Economic opinion is not just an aggregate of individuals, each ignorant of anything but their own personal situation. Most people are aware that there is a bigger picture and form opinions about it separate from their day-to-day. These are 21st century American citizens, not 14th century peasants.
I mean, according to the polling, average Americans treat “the economy” as basically a sports team they’re rooting for/against, but the idea that they don’t conceive of it at all is very patronizing.
" According to a New York Times– Siena poll, 81 percent of registered voters described the condition of the economy as fair or poor, and only 19 percent called it good or excellent. Another poll, conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan, found that a majority of voters said that they are worse off under President Biden then they were before, and only 14 percent said that they are better off. By a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, the Times– Siena poll found voters trusting Donald Trump more than President Biden on the economy."
Right, but by now you agree the economy is not, if fact, bad, right? Maybe ask a moderator to change the title to “It’s the perception of the economy, stupid.”
“Perception is reality” depends on the society. In 1952 Adlai Stevenson used the slogan “You’ve never had it so good,” and lost. Five years later in the UK, Harold Macmillan said “most of our people have never had it so good,” and won. Although the economic numbers supported both statements, Macmillan acknowledged with “most” that some improvements were still needed, and the voters agreed that overall he was correct. Americans, on the other hand, need The Big Promise.
I’ll be the first one to say that Presidents get too much credit and blame with regards to the economic outcomes during their tenures. Is that fair? Presidents also like to take credit for economic good times and shift responsibility for economic hardships. Is that right?
Regardless, most voters vote with how they personally feel. It’s just how it happens.
You can argue what the real result of the economy is currently or what it was in history, but Carville was right in the sense that perception of voters is probably the most important aspect of presidential elections.
That has been my point since the OP, and that current perception is not playing out well for Biden.
Yeah, it’s weird because what people say about the economy is not only at odds with reality, but it’s at odds with their own behavior – spending is doing fine, travel is find, people feel fine leaving jobs or striking.
Here’s a gift link from the Paul Krugman blog at the NY Times that lays it all out:
Anyway, I’ll leave it at that. I don’t really feel like rehashing the same arguments. Perception is bad, the economy is good. People say the economy is bad, but act like the their own situation is fine. Round and round we go.
Yes. And these days, public perception is being increasingly warped by biased and incorrect reporting from media outlets that desperately want the current administration to fail.
If all you watch is Fox news, and all Fox news says is “the economy is terrible!” , then when a pollster asks you about the economy, you’re going to dutifully parrot “it’s terrible”.
People don’t get news anymore. They get directions from the spin masters.
Yeah, and this thread is helping that narrative. A better title would be “Why the disconnect between the economy and voters perception of it?” The way it was written invited a lot of commentary about how the economy is actually bad, but according to the OP, that’s not what he was looking for:
ETA: Here’s another gift link from the NY Times on this exact subject:
Anyway, the analysts at Briefing Book delved into one possible reason for this disconnect, which I speculated about right from the start — but they’ve done the math. It’s now a well-established fact that partisan orientation affects expressed views about the economy: Democrats are more positive when a Democrat holds the White House, Republicans more positive when the president is a Republican. What Briefing Book shows is that this effect isn’t symmetric: It applies to both parties, but the partisan effect on sentiment is two and a half times as large for Republicans as it is for Democrats.
Considering that less than 1% of the voting age public are viewers of Fox news, I don’t think your theory holds up. [average number of Fox News viewers 1.1MM, Number of voting age adults in the US 258MM]
Yes, I have always been known as the “spinmaster of the Dope” And with the teeming hundreds we have around here these days, it will really influence the election.
Consider “Fox News” as shorthand for “multiple right wing media and social media sources that play fast and loose with the facts and are determined to put Republicans in power.”
Many folks WANT you to think the economy is bad. Because “it’s the economy, stupid”. They need you to think the economy is bad.
Don’t believe what your lying eyes tell you. Don’t believe that you’re actually doing OK financially. BIDEN IS RUINING EVERYTHING! DOOOOOOMMM!"
In this context you should treat “Fox News” as a shorthand for right wing news sources and social media. The number of voters who live in a right wing bubble is much larger than the number who watch Fox news as evidenced by Trump’s popularity.
Average Joe Voter does not have to follow anything. He’ll be inundated with “the economy is terrible, Biden is at fault” wherever they look. There is no “following”. There is “force feeding”.
And with the teeming hundreds we have around here these days, it will really influence the election. 