It's the end of December. Time to start arguing over NFL MVP candidates!

Cafe Society
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Over on the Chris Berman’s a moron thread, a few people, including me, started talking tangentially about the MVP of the National Football League this year. Rather than distract from the fact that Chris Berman is, indeed, a moron, I thought I’d start a new thread in which we can all argue over --ahem, discuss– which player from which team has been the most valuable over this, our 2003 season. Now, a quick look at some candidates:

Peyton Manning - Who cares if he tends to choke come January? This year alone he’s passed for 4047 yards, which is almost two hundred more than his closest competition. His 28 touchdown passes put him second in the league (behind Brett Favre) and for all those scoring passes, he’s only thrown nine interceptions. Favre, who has thrown 31 TDs, has 20 INTs (in all fairness, he’s been playing with a broken thumb). Manning’s passer rating is an astonishing 100.3, good enough for second in the league, behind Steve McNair. All of this is coupled with the fact that he has almost no running game to take the pressure off the pass. Indianapolis is 25th in rushing offense, with Edgerrin James averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. On the other hand, they lead the league in passing yards and completion percentage. Of course, it helps to have a target like Marvin Harrison out there…

Speaking of Steve McNair - This guy is a machine. He’s an animal. He’s some kind of crazy cyborg mutant animal-machine. Seriously, don’t you get the idea that we could, like, chop off some of his bits and he’d play even better than he already does? His saga of injuries has been widely chronicled elsewhere, though, so I thought I’d take a look at the stats. He leads the league in passer rating, which, is all well and good, but I’m not a big fan of the arcane formula for figuring out passer rating. I think it just gives people something they can point to and say, “Hey, I lead the league in passer rating!” Though his raw stats don’t really stack up to Manning’s that well, we have to remember, too that he missed a game and some change and that he’s done it with even less of a rushing game than the Colts have. Eddie George is practically falling apart on field every game, averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. That puts him at the bottom of the pack for starting tailbacks. The other big thing McNair has an edge on is his ability to scramble and make plays that no one else could. He’s got 138 rushing yards on the season, which is down significantly from his previous years, but his ability to be flushed from the pocket and still make a big completion downfield remains solid.

Those are the big-name quarterbacks that you’re going to hear about between now and the end of the season. I’ve heard some people jumping on the Brett Favre bandwagon again, but his numbers in the beginning of the season were just so bad, broken thumb not withstanding, that he can’t be considered a serious candidate. And I say that with all the love of a lifelong Packer fan. So those are the big names that everyone’s talking about. However, there are a few darkhorses out there that need to be mentioned.

Jamal Lewis - A horse indeed. There’s a reason that Baltimore leads the league in rushing, and it damn sure ain’t because they’ve got a great O-line. J. Lewis has been an absolute beast this year, coming only forty-eight yards shy of 2000 yards this season and he still has one game to go. To put it in perspective, the back with the second-most rushing yards, Ahman Green, is three hundred yards back. That’s more than Lewis’s record-breaking game this year against Cleveland. In other words, take out his single biggest game of the year, and he’s still the best rusher in the league! Plus, Lewis has the opposite problem that the previously mentioned quarterbacks do. The Ravens have the worst passing offense in the league, so the opposing defenses know that they’re going to be dishing the ball off to Jamal. But, of course, they can’t stop him. Against the Cleveland Browns alone, he’s run the ball five hundred yards this year. I really don’t understand how, assuming he breaks two thousand yards on the year, he can not get MVP.

Well, I don’t understand, that is, unless the title goes to the man I think is most deserving, that other Lewis from Baltimore, Ray Lewis - Defenders always get overlooked when it comes to MVPs, and yet defense is what wins championships. Just ask Tampa Bay. Lewis (this Lewis) is having a marquee year as the most versatile player on the field. He can cover, he can tackle, he can run stop, he can knit-- well, I don’t know about that last. I’ll grant you that he doesn’t actually lead the league in anything, but he is among the top few in so many categories that it’s obvious that he’s the best all-around player on defense. There isn’t another linebacker (or, for that matter, any player) alive who can boast of not only 89 solo tackles, but 11 pass deflections, 5 interceptions, and 38 assists. He’s got the right balance of speed and brute force necessary to be the most dominant player on the field every week.

So, did I forget anyone important? If not, for whom would you vote, and why?

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McNair… has to be. I don’t care about Manning’s numbers, McNair has crap players around him and he wills that offense to put up points. All the while playing injured. The man is amazing and deserves the award, easy. He probably should have won it last year as well.
Oh, and don’t forget about Donovan McNabb. Horrible first two games, but has led his team to elite of the NFC without any recievers and hardly any talent in the backfield (though Westbrook has stepped up). Nice year by him… though he’s still overrated ;D.

And even though they’ve been pushed off the front page in the AFC, the Chiefs’ Priest Holmes may break Emmitt Smith’s TD record and has been his old self, even after the leg injury in the offseason.

3

Call me biased and a “homer,” but I still say Manning.

4

Can’t go to anyone except Jamal Lewis. The award is for the Most Valuable Player ( to his team ). Ray Lewis notwithstanding, without Jamal the Ravens are no better than the Stillers or the Clowns.

5

Yeah, it would be too bad to see the Steelers break Jamal Lewis’ leg at the same time they eliminate the Crows from the playoffs.

:smiley:
Don’t count Tom Brady out. McNabb is also a serious contender, and **Marc Bulger **has his good points too.

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The real issue is…what does “MVP” stand for? Is it truly the single player most valuable to his team? Or the player with the best stats, regardless of supporting players? Does said player have to be on a winning team? Something in between?

It can’t be solely the first item on the list, otherwise you’d have to throw Vick and, to a slightly lesser extent, Pennington into the mix. No stats for either of them, but it’s hard to deny that both of them are Incredibly Valuable Players to their team.

Of course, no one (not even me) would remotely suggest either of those players are deserving of even being mentioned. But I would think (and hope) that MVP does lean towards this thinking, rather than the amount of stats a person racks up.

That being said, my votes would go:

1a. McNair: a warrior, with virtually no help on the offense. Always comes to play, plays through injury, and seemingly wills his team to victory. Downside - Billy Volek won a game while McNair was out.

1b. Ray Lewis: Simply the best LB ever, a monster, can single-handedly destroy an offense. Great season. Keeps the Ravens D aggressive and near the top of the chart of team D’s. Therefore, keeps the Ravens in the game.

  1. Jamal Lewis: Great stats, an unbelievably powerful runner. Stats don’t tell the story entirely though - he’s playing with every team knowing that they have to stop him. I mean, the Ravens have no QB or WRs to speak of.

  2. Randy Moss: Yes, I expect to be jeered at for this. But he leads (by far) in receiving TDs. His mere presence helps the Minny running game (although the Vikes do have better-than-average RBs, regardless of Moss’ presence).

  3. Manning: stats, and lots of them. A great QB. But he does have some great help around him.

  4. P. Holmes: see Manning, above. Lots of help, a great O-line.

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Oh, dear, lord, Marc Bulger?! Ye gods, man, he’s got Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce running downfield and he still throws interceptions like they’re going out of style! I was going to rant about you mentioning McNabb (his play has upgraded from horrendous to merely tepid and everyone’s acting like he’s the second coming of Christ) until I saw you nominate Bulger. Yargh!

But, yeah, Tom Brady’s got a shot at it.

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I must second both Ray Lewis and Jamal Lewis - they’re monstrous players each, and the two of them have kept an otherwise wholly inept team (with the possible exceptions of Chis McAllister, Jon Ogden and Todd Heap) from crashing and burning yet again.

Still, I feel that the following players must also be considered:

Torry Holt
Priest Holmes
Randy Moss
Peyton Manning
Marvin Harrison
Jake Plummer (yea, I know - but wow what a difference)

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Sorry, but I can’t let this pass. McNabb has three running backs behind him (Westbrook, Buckhalter and Staley) that are either fully capable of 1,000-yard seasons or have already got 1,000-yard seasons. He’s got plenty of help on the ground. Plus, you said yourself that he had two horrible games and his season stats aren’t great compared to Manning and McNair.

Setting aside MVP, I’d vote for Brett Favre, Tim Hasselbeck, Trent Green, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair and Marc Bulger before McNabb in a contest for best QB.

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I don’t go for the argument that McNair has less talent around him than Manning. Other than Harrison, if you compare the teams, that argument just does not hold up. The Titans have a better, yet a bit aged now, defensive group. That is what Manning has always been missing with the Colts. Its still not quite there, as evidenced by the beating the Broncos put on them last week. Edge is a bit better than Eddie George, mainly because George is a few years older, but James is still not the pre-knee injury Edge. With Pollard dropping passes and getting fewer looks this year and Dallas Clark hurt, its hard to argue the tight ends are better on the Colts this year. Wayne is emerging as a good #2 receiver, but again, really beyond Harrison the receivers are pretty even. Compare the running and defensive stats, too. You’ll see they are very similar.

         The truth is that Manning and McNair have put up similar number this year with similarly skilled teams, but Manning has beaten him twice, will likely win the division and leads in all categories except passer rating, where he is a tenth of a point behind.  The only argument you can make for McNair is that he plays hurt.  Yeah, thats great, but I get sick of hearing it.  Its almost nauseating anymore.  I am waiting for the announcement that he has died, then shows up on Sunday miraculously to play.  ANd don't tell me that McNair means more to the offense than Manning does.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.  Manning is the only QB in the league that basically runs the offense from the field at the line of scrimmage.  Without Manning, the Colts offense is mediocre at best.

             However, if Lewis breaks the rushing record I bet he will get the award.  And it would be hard for me to argue why he shouldn't get it.  The Ravens really have no one else on offense that is a threat, but he still piles up the yards.  

           McNabb has come on strong lately, but you still can't just ignore his first few weeks of the year.  His numbers just aren;t up to par with Manning and McNair this year.
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Ahem, of course I meant MATT HASSELBECK in my post.

Crap…lousy Hasselbecks…and there’s another one in college now…

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Just a pointer about the “arcane” passer rating stat being mostly irrelevant. Is is clearly a relevant stat.

The passer rating combines the four passer stats of…

completions per attempt
yards per attempt
touchdowns per attempt
interceptions per attempt

…into a single normalized average…
(few Int’s is good but many TDs is good, so they normalize it)
…and then factor the scale to a school report card, so that:

100+ = A+
90-100 = A
80-90 = B
70-80 = C
60-70 = D
<60 = F

In other words, the passer rating combines every relevant passing stat and then puts it into an easy to comprehend scale.

That is hardly irrelevant.

Oh, and I would vote for McNair. Although it is true Voleck won; hmmm.

Can’t be Manning. He’s officially worthless until he wins a single postseason game.

Belichek is so good that I don’t think he particularly needs Brady.

McFlabb is horrendous.

Clearly not Quincy Carter. Roy Williams?

I vote Clinton Portis.

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This is a regular season award, not a postseason award. As such, whatever Manning has or has not done in the postseason is utterly irrelevant.

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Okay, jebus, people, I’m confused, here. Since everyone here seems to be assuming that the MVP has to go the an offensive candidate, how can you not give it to Jamal Lewis? He’s already broken the single-game rushing record this season, and he’s closing in on the single-season record (depending on how much Billick allows him to play). Lewis has been nothing less than sterling this year. He shows up to play every game and every opponent knows that he’s the Ravens’ only real weapon on offense, and yet he still gets good carries. Since no one else brought it up, he also predicted that he would break the single-game rushing record before promptly going out and doing it in his first game against Cleveland this year. I understand that it’s hard to give a traditional power-runner the MVP because it’s not flashy to watch him, except when he breaks big gains like his eighty-two yarder against Cleveland, but this guy can drag three or four defenders an extra five yards before going down, and that’s the type of tool that is most valuable to any coach in the NFL. Really, if you took a poll, I guarantee that coaches (well, smart coaches) would prefer a strong running game to a flashy passing game any day of the week, especially Sundays. The best coaches in the NFL realize that the game is all about how many of the thousands of variables in every game that they can control. A powerful, reliable running game allows them to control the ball while providing few opportunities for turnovers (unless your RB is Tiki Barber) and control the clock. The deep passes might be what make the highlight reels, but it’s the mid-range runs that win the football games. And on that basis, Jamal Lewis has to be considered the league’s Most Valuable Player this year (besides Ray Lewis, but offense is sexy and always wins these types of awards).

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Oh, and my point about the passer rating was merely that they take all those stats and assign arcane and arbitrary values to them to come up with an “easy to comprehend” number. You don’t think it’s arbitrary? Then tell me why the formula looks like this:

A.>Take completion percentage and subtract 30 and multiply the result by .05.

B.>Subtract 3 from yards-per-completion and multiply by .25.

C.>Multiply the percentage of touchdown passes thrown by .2.

D.>Multiply the interception percentage by .25 and subtract that number from 2.375.

Now, add A+B+C+D, divide by six, and multiply by one hundred! Simple, right? Er, well, not really.

See, my point is merely that the passer rating is sort of a fake stat. Someone, sometime (actually, this started in 1960) decided what percentage of TDs, and INTs a quarterback should throw, and how many yards they should gain on each completion. Then, they figured out this formula so that their particular quarterback could get a nice, easy, round 100 as a score. It just makes no sense to me that an actual perfect quarterback, like Favre was Monday night, gets a completely counterintuitive score of 158.3. That’s why I’d prefer to look at the raw stats, instead of the ones that have already been plugged into this unfounded formula.

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Which, although amusing, is really nothing more than the most minor of footnotes for two reasons. One, Lewis and his friend weren’t entirely sure of whether they said it or not, because two, it was in the context of trashtalking before a game with a friend.

“Oh, yeah? Man, I’m gonna bust all these records today, I’m on fire!”

I’m sure there are hundreds of games in which a player predicts he’ll break a record and does nothing of the sort. Don’t get me wrong on Jamal Lewis, though; he and Priest Holmes carried me to my fantasy playoffs (and I get them next year, too, in the keeper league!). I think that he deserves to be offensive player of the year, and Ray Lewis should be defensive player of the year.

But McNair is the MVP in my eyes.

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Sentimentally, as a lifelong New England fan, I’d love to see Brady win it. But realistically, I don’t think he’s the MVP. He’s very good, but the Pats win on most Sundays because of their defense (collectively), not because on any individual player. He wasn’t even selected to go to the Pro Bowl.

I don’t know how you can not give it to Jamal Lewis. Holy cow! What an incredible season he’s had. If not for him, Baltimore would be watching the Bengals in the playoffs.

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You have to at least include LaDanian Tomlinson in the conversation: 1400+ yads rushng, 700+ yards recieving and a chance to become the first ever player with 100 receptions and 1000+ yards rushing. His team stinks, sure, so I don’t necessarily think he should win, but he shuld be on the short list.

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Emphasis mine. When you have another MVP candidate on your team… and the best reciever in the game, that makes Indy’s offense substantially better.

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If Jamal breaks Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record, he is unanimous. Even so, I think he is a lock. Come on, single game and single season records in the same year, same category? That does not happen often.