At the end of WW2 Japan had to sign the Potsdam Declaration which basically said that among other things, Japan was not allowed to have any offensive capabilities in their armed forces as the Japan self defense forces (their armed forces are now known as) are strictly for self defense purposes.
I wanted to know what would happen if Japan began to create nuclear weapons on the pretense of defending from possible Chinese aggression? Would the other world powers say and/or do anything? Or would they understand that the world is changing, and that the PD is outdated in that respect with Japan being a different nation then it was 70 odd years ago?
It depends on how strong their defense treaty with the US stays and how much the US is willing to spend. The Philippines has practically no defensive capability compared with its neighbors and relies on agreements with the US.
I don’t think you quite understood my question. I want to know what sort of reactions other countries would have if that scenario happened as well as the possible actions that would be taken by other world powers.
I think it will be interesting to see how long it is before the Japanese find ways to quietly remove the “No offensive capability” clause in their constitution.
I mean, the Treaty of Versailles after World War I prevented the Germans from having an army bigger than 100,000 troops and prohibited them from having tanks, armed aircraft or manufacturing military small arms in any useful quantities. We all know how well that worked out.
Now, I’m not for a moment suggesting the Japanese have plans to annex the Sudetenland or invade Poland, but at the same time I would not be at all surprised if they were thinking of ways to redefine the definition of “self-defence force” in a military sense, if for no other reason than in response to geopolitical changes in the region since the end of World War II.
Personally, I doubt anything would happen if they were to announce they had a small number of self-defense nukes intended for a MAD type scenario with China or N. Korea.
Or… they either already have some nukes carefully hidden, or have plans to make some in a hurry. Japan has a robust nuclear industry, including fuel reprocessing. It’s not a stretch to think that they could divert some of the plutonium to weapons manufacturing if they so chose.
In addition, designing a simple implosion device would be well within Japanese capabilities even without extensive testing. Keep in mind the US’s first attempt worked- back in 1945, in an era without extensive computing resources, simulations or as precise of manufacturing techniques.
Also, I think they’d have to be prepared for quite a bit of internal dissent. Remember, they’re the only country that ever had that shit used on them, and there are stillplenty of survivors around. And they don’t cotton to the Bomb much.
Interestingly this is a question that might come up in a couple of years or so, should their prototype fighter plane (which looks like the result of a one night stand between an F-15 and an F-22) ever see the light of day : like the F-22, it’s supposed to have extensive stealth characteristics.
But stealth is hardly a defensive attribute, so I could see the JASDF getting hammered over it.
They are an Island nation. Unless they start building up their Navy a lot more,I doubt their is going to be much “offensive capability”. Those oversized Helicarriers are not going to cut it. If they build a CV with a decent attack wing, then it gets interesting.
A relevant point to consider: PM Shinzo Abe and his LDP party would like to amend Japan’s constitution to allow for its military to also conduct offensive operations (link).
There are some other proposed changes that basically roll back what was set in place to address Japanese actions in the leadup to WWII (revision of pre-war history, re-institution of the Emperor as head of state, etc), but those aren’t as directly relevant to this thread.
Nitpick: Japan didn’t have to sign the Potsdam Declaration. It was a unilateral assertion by the US, UK and China of what would happen if Japan didn’t surrender. Japan signed the Instrument of Surrender, which adopted the terms of the Potsdam Declaration.
The problem isn’t with either the Potsdam Declaration or the Instrument of Surrender either; it is the Japanese Constitution, particularly Article 9. What Japan has is already in violation of it, the official English translation reads:
The end run around this is that the JSDF is in theory an extension of the Police Forces. In fact before it was called the SDF it was called the National Safety Forces in 1952, which was itself established from the 75,000 strong National Police Reserve, both of which were themselves the Army in all but name.
Nothing military is strictly entirely defensive or offensive, and Japan already has one of the largest Navies in the world. ETA: Article 9 doesn’t itself make any distinction beteen “offensive” or “defensive”; it states “land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential will never be maintained.”
The issue of nuclear weapons is an entirely separate one from all of this, however. Japan signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Japan’s government would find itself in rather deep shit, both internationally and domestically speaking, were it to suddenly announce it had nukes, even
Japan could of course give 90 days notice of its intent to withdraw from the treaty, but I can’t see any Japanese government surviving domestically were they to announce this or run on a platform of intending to withdraw from the treaty.
Obtaining nuclear weapons would not be a violation of the Potsdam Declaration and ensuing documents, as much as it would be a violation of the non-proliferation treaty. Almost all generally recognised states in the world (even though a few ones that are missing are really important, such as Israel, Pakistan, or India) are a party to this treaty, and it forbids those countries that did not already possess nuclear weapons when they acceded to obtain any. The non-proliferation treaty is quite different from the Potsdam Declaration; even countries that are not subject to a general prohibition of armed forces such as Japan have got into trouble for trying to obtain nuclear weapons in violation of the non-proliferation treaty.
As for Dissonance’s assertion that the defence forces that Japan already has violate the Japanese constitution: They do not, at least not in the opinion of the Supreme Court of Japan, which is the authoritative interpreter of the Japanese constitution. What I mean by this is, that it is a purely Japanese matter to interpret and apply its own constitution. The rest of the world is not going to bother if Japan did something which violates its own constitution; that’s a domestic affair. What the rest of the world would be concerned about is if Japan did something in violation of its international obligations, but it seems that the settled opinion of the international community is that the Japanese Self-Defence Forces do not violate any obligation since nobody seems to bother to make this point.
What exact military threat could Japan face in the future? The way things are looking in the 21st century powerful nations are tending to sort out their disputes with diplomacy instead of force, and I can’t realistically see Japan and China going to war over something like the Senkaku islands even if you throw oil into the equation.
part. The fiction that JSDF isn’t an army, the JMSDF isn’t a navy and the JASDF isn’t an air force is maintained by declaring them to be an extension of the police forces. Openly calling them what they in fact are - an army, a navy and an air force - would clearly violate Article 9 section 2) To accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. This is why they are called Self Defense Forces, not because they lack any offensive capabilities or aren’t an army, a navy and an air force.
It would (or at least, should) be difficult for the US to complain about Japanese military buildup, given that our own military capability is officially in the Department of “Defense”.