Japan's "lost decade"(s): why?

The Nikkei index crashed back in 1989, and has never recovered. I gather the initial crash was bubble-related, but it sounds like the problem is deeper than that: their economy has actually been struggling for a while as well. The US has also had crashes and recessions, but we seem to recover in 5-6 years (e.g. dot-com crash, real estate crash).

So what’s behind Japan’s struggles? The stereotype is of salarymen putting in insanely long hours at the office, so why is the economy not the same steamroller it was in the decades after WW2?

Part of the answer is demography. The population of Japan is declining. That reduces the internal demand across their economy, which puts a deflationary pressure on their currency.

:dubious: According to Wikipedia, 2015 was the first recorded decline in the population of Japan since WW2.

More like the population of Japan is changing. Lots more older people (who presumably already own most of the major consumer goods), and lots fewer young people just starting out and setting up households and buying all those consumer goods.

A lot of it is debt to GDP ratio (it’s over 200%)…they have a huge debt and they spend a lot on social services. They have tried, without success, to spend their way out of their recession through public works. For them it hasn’t really helped any, however. There are a few good YouTube videos on this if you are interested…here is one that I always like that shows Japan’s debt problem visualized. If you have 10 minutes it will really go a long way to explaining the question you are asking in the OP.

I have to admit I find the common debt-to-GDP ratio to be somewhat disingenuous. It’s often seems like it’s being used more as a shock tactic rather than a rational discussion of economics.

National debt and GDP really don’t have a lot of direct correlation to each other. It’s like comparing the size of your mortgage to your annual salary. Sure, it can be shocking to think you owe 200% of your salary on your mortgage. But people pay off mortgages like that on a routine basis over a period of years. It’s the same as saying that every American’s share of the national debt is around $60,000. Is that a lot of money? Yes. But people pay off $60,000 debts.

So I think we need to stop treating the debt like it’s a financial apocalypse. That just encourages us to think nothing can be done. We should start seeing the debt for what it really is; a big loan we should get to work on paying off.

I don’t understand why you’re dubious about that. The demographic problems of Japan have been well-known for a long time.

Even before the population actually started declining, it was growing very slowly for several years. Japan’s fertility rate has been below replacement levels for quite a while.

And by the way, 2015 was the first recorded decline from a base of 2010.

Did you watch the video? :slight_smile: I understand where you are coming from, and I’m not trying to use the old saw analogy of comparing a household to a country, but I think that one of the large factors in what the OP is asking is Japan’s debt to GDP. If you disagree then explain why you think it’s wrong and what you think the reasons for Japan’s very long and dragging recession has been. I’m in the thread more to learn than because I think I ‘know’ the answer.

Japan had a series issue with deflation and politically was unable to move to address it. With money becoming more valuable unused it’s difficult to spur economic development.

I have never been to Japan, but there are a couple of cultural factors that I’m told are still prevalent, and could be factors

  1. Somewhat sexist; so women are rarely promoted to senior positions. On top of other demography problems, that means half of the workforce is being under-utilized.

  2. Still a little resistant to foreign ideas and even investment, let alone immigration.

Basically, when you have a financial collapse, the way out is through inflation and writing off bad debt. This works if you have a growing population with a high risk tolerance. It’s very painful if you are a nation of elderly savers, which has been more and more true of Japan for decades now.

Some people think that the lost decade might have been much shorter if they had moved faster to write off bad debt and inflate their money supply. But it’s hard to ignore the shrinking pool of labor, and harder still to justify the racist/xenophobic policies that needlessly restrict the labor supply. The US could stand to take a long, hard, look at Japan from the labor perspective.

it’s been 10 years since I’ve been there, but that was what I noticed. In fact, it reminded me of depictions of American companies in the '50s and '60s. Most of the employees were men who wore ties, smoked like forest fires, and didn’t go home until after their boss did. Women were usually only employed as receptionists and secretaries.

It is slowly changing, though. when I was with the second Japanese company I worked for, we were going to have a “tech show” for our biggest customer, and they sent a team over from Japan to handle the logistics. The project manager was a (fairly young) woman who kept things running; she had no hesitation to tell people to get their asses in gear. And they listened.

The older generation(s) are still rather conservative, so to speak. That same job, my manager was a woman (American) who is pretty highly regarded within the company. But some of the older Japanese guys who would come in periodically almost seemed like they were afraid of her.

I’d say they’re still more than “a little” resistant. The companies which made up the “Japan Inc.” of the 1980s are still rigidly inflexible and unable to adapt to changing times. The second employer I referred to above (Sony) is still like that. They don’t want to use anything they didn’t invent, and will cling to their own shit long after the market has decided otherwise. They did it with MiniDisc (ATRAC,) Memory Stick, and a bunch of other things.

Immigration? Eh, if my experience is something to go on, they pretty much stick all of their foreign residents in Roppongi.

I tried to watch the video, and it made no sense at all. It claims the Japanese Central Bank prints money to suppress interest rates, and that’s not how that works. Printing money causes inflation, which is the very opposite of the problem Japan actually has.

The video also assumes that lower interest rates automatically and inevitably make the government spend more, and never explains the basis of that assumption.

Japan has a problem because of its demographics. It’s got a lot of elderly people. The elderly don’t generate a lot of GDP–most are retired, and they’re not out buying lots of consumer goods. The elderly also use lots of social spending, mostly in the form of pensions and health care. The Japanese government budget has been described as a giant conduit moving resources from the young to the old, and the old have a lot of political power because they are numerous and they vote in higher percentages. The over-65s now comprise more than a quarter of Japan’s population (or roughly double the percentage of Americans in that age group), and it’s expected to hit 40% by the middle of the century.

I’ll admit I quit pretty early in. Right after they “explained” that Japan’s debt is over 200% of its GDP and is the equivalent of $80,000 and therefore “there’s little chance of it being paid back”.

That conclusion is nonsense for the reasons I gave in my previous post. It’s a large debt but it’s certainly not an unpayable one.

Japan needs to bit the bullet. They need to raise taxes and cut government spending (always an unpopular combination) and start paying down the debt. The longer they avoid doing this, the more draconian the tax increases and spending cuts will have to be. I don’t know enough about Japanese domestic politics to know when they’re likely to reach this point.

But I can tell you the United States is facing a less dire version of the same problem and we need to do the same thing.

Here’s a breakdown of Japanese government expenditure and revenues for 2014 from Japan’s Ministry of Finance.

Debt servicing is currently 24% of expenditure. Domestic bond sales make up 43% of revenues. They’re in quite the pickle if interest rates go up, or the appetite for government bonds goes down.

Paul Krugman has written on this topic (and similar) repeatedly. His thesis is that economic austerity policies are ruinous, here and in Japan and everywhere, but that conservative austerity and deficit hawks unyieldingly insist that austerity is the solution, despite years of actual evidence that it doesn’t work.

You can google for keywords like Krugman and Japan financial austerity and lost decade, and find many cites. Here’s one for example: Japan’s Economy, Crippled by Caution, Paul Krugman, New York Times, September 11, 2015:

At the end of the day, no amount of money was going to fix the basic problems, which is why the current government has looked to more innovative and cultural changes instead. Japan doesn’t have a problem with too little government spending. But they can’t reasonably spend more at this point, especially given how little the country has to show for previous stimulus programs.

This is purely my opinion - which I think is fair since there is no factual answer to this question yet - but as someone who lived there, the problem is the Japanese people.

Fundamentally, modern day Japanese are highly insular, risk-adverse, and too caught up in propriety and cultural norms.

As I explain it, after WWII, the leaders of Japan went all-out to rebuild the country, and by “leaders” I mean not just the government, but also the heads of business (the zaibatsu). And the best way to rebuild was to go for a strong top-down approach to running the economy. Rather than soliciting ideas from employees or encouraging participation in business or government from the workers, the goal was simply to shut up and get to work, pulling in technologies from the rest of the world and doing a better job with quality assurance, so that they had good products to sell internationally.

That allowed them to quickly rebuild and to quickly start taking over in several markets, because Japan had the newest technologies and lower failure rates in their products.

But by the point they were able to get there, the guys who were running everything were starting to get old and were either retiring or dying. And in their time in the lead, they’d trained two or three generations to sit down, shut up, and obey. They’d never developed workers nor managers who would stand up and propose grand ideas. They’d used much of the same rhetoric as the pre-WWII government, saying that everything is for Japan, rather than that business is for money.

When I was living there, around 2000, they had invented MiniDisc a decade earlier. This was a technology that was smaller and more scratch-resistant than CD, and rewritable. You could put the player in your pocket, You could split, rearrange, and merge songs - allowing editing right on that pocket-sized player. Cellphone technology was years ahead of American, with large color displays, installable apps, and multi-press keyboards. These were both huge markets that the Japanese made no real attempt to market outside the country. It just didn’t occur to them to try.

I’m sure that today, they’ve probably got a few interesting gadgets that would be big sellers internationally, but modern Japanese just don’t think in global terms. They just think about Japan and what their place is supposed to be in it.

Their school system is set up to encourage rote memorization, with no emphasis whatsoever on creative thinking, independent research, nor speaking up.

There’s a joke in Japan that the workers are “Manual People”. It varies a bit by the person, with the most extreme cases taking that title, but it’s illustrative for our purpose that the term exists and is used even by the Japanese. Basically, the best way to get promoted is through seniority and through obedience. And the best way to show obedience is to perfectly live up to the textbook definition of your job. So you end up with people working like they’ve gone through (and there may actually be) a manual describing how they are to perform their job, and they follow through those instructions like a computer program. There’s no room for creativity, personal flair, or logic. If the instructions are missing a vital step, then they’ll just lock up and be unable to do something. Living in Japan, you encounter a lot of cases where you run into some bizarre scenario where obvious and reasonable things, that would be good for business, are impossible. If it’s not in the manual, it’s just not going to happen, ever.

Fundamentally, and the part which people always ignore about economics, is that a financial stimulus exists to allow the economy to float, while the underlying problems are fixed. E.g., the housing market was overpriced and the regulations on banks were insufficient to prevent poorly structured loans, so you float the economy for a while with extra cash, so that layoffs don’t turn into more layoffs and make things worse, until the problems are fixed and market faith returns. Stimulus only works if the underlying problems are actually fixed.

If you had a group of people who are developmentally disabled and started giving them money, they’re not going to start up new companies, hire on workers, and start selling their wares across the globe. They’re just going to either buy chewing gum or squirrel away the money so that they can spend it on a trip to Hawaii when they’ve save enough. They simply don’t have the basic capabilities of acting as rational, enterprising economic actors.

Economics isn’t just math, and people tend to treat it like it is. Keynes described stimulus in psychological terms. There was an economic model to explain what would happen in the market if the psychology played out like he envisioned, just as Karl Marx had economic models for how things would play out if humans acted like he envisioned. Marx’s math never came into play because humans just don’t work like that. Keynes is closer. In the modern day US, stimulus is generally going to work, because Americans are good at thinking in terms of making money and selling things to any sucker that will take it. If you give them money, entrepreneurs will stand up and create new businesses. The Japanese aren’t like that, and it’s going to take a few generations to get over the damage that their school and career path systems are doing.

I’m not sure that’s always true. If the economy is already deflationary–as Japan’s is–most of the extra money may just be reinvested. That reinvestment will depress interest rates, but then the bonds become less attractive to foreign investors.

I don’t see how any kind of banking nonsense can get Japan out of trouble. Krugman says that they need Keynesian stimulus. But as I see it, that only helps if you have high unemployment. A nation might have a huge labor reserve that isn’t being used because the money isn’t there. A stimulus helps in this situation because you can get people working, and they earn money, which they then spend, which drives the economy, and it’s all self-sustaining. But in Japan’s case, the labor isn’t there. They have low unemployment. There aren’t a lot of youth. And there are a lot of old people using expensive social services.

How you push around the pieces of paper is irrelevant if there isn’t enough productive capacity to sustain the population as a whole. They’re going ok now but their demographics a few decades out aren’t looking good.

Instead of printing money, they might want to look at promoting teenage pregnancy.

Isn’t that convenient. Get into debt by spending too much money, get out of it by spending even more money!

Countries accumulate debt by spending money they don’t have. So they borrow it. In this sense it’s similar to a mortgage. But the difference is that if you don’t have a mortgage, you pay rent, so basically your mortgage is “free”. Not so much for public debt. You can handle that in several ways:

  • Pay it back. Costs a lot of tax money, is not popular.
  • Inflate it away. Which is basically taking the money out of people’s savings accounts. But it’s less visible so less impopular, although the Dutch and the Germans aren’t happy about the ECB doing this, more or less.
  • Refuse to pay it back. What are they going to do, reposes your country? Of course there are some side effects. Also not popular.
  • Just let it ride. Problem solved! Very popular. Until interest rates go up and you are FORCED to implement one or more of the other options at a very inconvenient time.

We need to come up with a way that makes it impossible for politicians to spend money we don’t have.