Except he’s apparently burned through most of his money (as of 9/30, he only had $10.3M cash on hand, a long way down from that $100M that was going to overwhelm the opposition), and the people who could write more checks are doubting the wisdom of doing so.
The poor guy’s actually having to fly commercial, and even be driven between different Iowa towns, rather than be flown. And his entourage has to stay in cheap hotels now. Quel horreur!
Meanwhile, Hillary and Bernie raised $28M and $26M, respectively, in the third quarter, compared to the $13.4M that Jeb brought in.
Well, yeah - but he’s going to have to scale his expenses way back in order to last. Because he’s burned through his big $100M war chest: if he weren’t still raising money, he’d already be broke.
Despite the stories of his cutting back on hotel and travel costs, I’m not sure a Bush knows how to run a non-lavish campaign.
I thought from the beginning that Jeb was a shoo-in to win the nomination. I bought into the shock and awe of all the early money that would guarantee him the prize. But the voters are looking at Bush the same way a child looks at a tablespoon of castor oil about to be poured down his throat. Now it seems to me that we’re in for a year where the crazies are going to have their way and nominate someone truly batshit. Maybe that’s what we need, maybe if they get it out of their system sanity might be restored to the party. For the moment, it looks like all the money in the world isn’t going to make the party want to swallow its dose of Jeb. At some point, either the needle starts to move in Jeb’s direction or the money stops flowing in. Right now, it’s hard to imagine him finishing higher than fourth in Iowa or New Hampshire. I don’t know if anyone has won after not getting at least a bronze medal in either state, and I’m not seeing where his strength is. Florida?
Can I just say how much I love love LOVE that Jeb! Bush has turned into a colossal nonstarter? I mean, Scott Walker was the GOP nominee who I most personally feared - and he’s gone now! - but Jeb! has always been the one who has disgusted me the most. I just absolutely love that the GOP primary voters are giving him an overwhelming “fuck you” and saying “no more Bushes.”
Of course, collectively, the implosion of Walker & the slow destruction of Jeb! is owed entirely to Trump, which, again, demonstrates why I’m still so thrilled that he’s in the race. Now if only Trump could knock out Jeb! & turn his sights on Rubio, I’ll be thrilled.
Hell, going back to 1976, no one has won either the Dem or GOP nomination without winning one state or the other, with one exception.
And as much as I dislike the phrase “the exception that proves the rule” because exceptions so very rarely do that, this exception - Bill Clinton in 1992 - qualifies. The Dems effectively canceled Iowa in 1992 by not contesting favorite son Tom Harkin there. And Clinton finished second in NH, so it’s effectively the same thing: Clinton was one of the two big winners of the Iowa/NH part of the calendar.
So this pattern has some durability to it. But given enough time, patterns break. And given the craziness of the GOP field in particular, 2016 could be the year. Still, if Jeb doesn’t do a lot better in NH than he’s been polling, he’s screwed. And apparently his recent ad deluge in the state hasn’t really moved the needle with his poll numbers.
I had assumed until now that Jeb still had most of that $100M war chest sitting in the bank, and that he could use that money to trash his rivals to the point where, as sorry a candidate as he’s turned out to be, his rivals would look even worse. It had seemed to me in recent weeks that that was really his only viable route to the nomination.
But now it turns out that he’s already spent that money, and his campaign is running on what it’s raised in the last couple of months. Rubio and Cruz each have as much in the bank as he does. I’m not quite ready to say he can’t win the nomination, but it’s getting damned hard to see how he can.
ETA: I just want to second everything that** 2ManyTacos** just said.
We all thought that four years ago, too. I’ll buy when one of the truly batshit candidates actually wins a primary. Bachmann was riding high this time in 2011, then promptly got squashed in Iowa. Santorum actually won some, of course, but he’s not as batshit as the current field.
But in 2012 we all knew Romney had it from day one. The unRomneys came out of the clown car one by one, showed they were unfit, and dropped into oblivion. Romney was never as far back in the polls as Bush is now. As I recall, Bachmann was done in by the Iowa straw poll, which was earlier in the year than now. What’s going to happen to Trump, Carson, and Fiorina between now and Iowa? Holidays are approaching, politics will take a back seat, and the year opens up with Iowa. I’m not seeing the opportunity for the rational wing to rise or the whackos to fall.
You’re comparing apples and oranges though. He had 100+ million number in his supporting Super PAC. That money didn’t just disappear. it’s simply not part of these reports. In your own link his Super PAC is committed to spending 40 million from now through Feb.
…and that’s apples to sausage. By relative rank inside within the party he’s in the same position as Sanders for fundraising - second. He’s in a more fractured field than the effectively two way race among Democrats. Being smarter at this point is probably necessary. He spent a little less than he took in and for cash on hand he dropped in relative rank to third. Still he’s got enough to keep spending like he has been through December without a single new dollar coming in.
I subscribe more to the fundraising follows support than causes it theory. Bush hasn’t campaigned well to this point and the flow of money showed it. He’s still got enough in house to keep campaigning vigorously. The Super PAC war chest didn’t magically disappear. He’s still fundraising well. His campaign just isn’t an unstoppable money juggernaut with cash flowing through it’s veins. I can think of a lot of candidates on both sides that wish they had his overall money situation. They’d be everyone who’s first name isn’t Hillary.
The Iowa Straw Poll was traditionally late summer. It no longer exists so its winnowing of the field is removed from the schedule entirely. It’s probably for the best since it was a pretty poor predictor of success either in Iowa or in winning the nomination. Bachmann actually** won **the last one. It was part of her flash in the pan not the end of it.
Damn, you’re right. I’d always been under the impression that it was his campaign that had raised the $100M. Sonuvagun. :smack:
I’d say yes and no. I think you’re right that what counts in the short run is their positions in their own parties. But still, IMHO it says something pretty significant that a relative outsider like Sanders in particular, whose prospects of winning have been dismissed from Day 1 by the mainstream media, can totally clobber the well-connected Establishment favorite Jeb in the fundraising department. Either Jeb’s being taken too seriously, or Bernie’s not being taken seriously enough.
And with roughly the same insider advantages as Jeb, Hillary’s killing him too.
Or Bernie. Or Donald, probably. Or Ben, from the looks of it.
A Super PAC can change its candidate affiliation if the situation calls for it. The money it has on hand could be someone else’s if Bush goes completely paws-up.
Carson and Sanders are both raising faster now. They both started wayyyyyyyy behind were he was though. They’d need three more quarters at current rates just to be in the ballpark of his total available cash at announcement. They probably never catch his total fundraising unless they actually win the nomination.
The hairpiece has started fundraising too. After initial seed money he mostly didn’t spend his own money in the last quarter. he obviously can pay for anything he wants. I still think he’d be happier to have Bush’s numbers though.
Oh, sure, Trump would be happier to have Jeb’s fundraising numbers than his own. But he wouldn’t trade overall money situations, to use your phrase. Even just to the extent that it bears on the campaign.
Since Bernie doesn’t want a Super-PAC, and he has more cash on hand for his campaign and is raising money faster than Jeb is, he wouldn’t want to switch either.
This news brings a tear of joy to my eye. Even at this point, one of my biggest fears is Bush’s soft-spoken geniality, combined with his connections, and that pile of gold will somehow sneak him into the GOP nominee chair and then people will elect him. The sooner this guy’s gone the sooner I can breath a sigh of relief
Love that Trump mentioned that the towers fell during Bush’s watch, to which Jeb responded that his brother kept us safe. Gotta go with the Trumpster on this one.
Predictwise now has Rubio barely ahead of Jeb! as favorite to win the GOP nomination. He’s shown as significantly more likely than Jeb! to win the White House if he is the nominee.
Betfair agrees with Predictwise. Hillary is most likely to be the next President, but is less than even money. Rubio is 2nd most likely. Four others are about tied with roughly 8% chance each: Bush, Biden, Sanders, Trump. (In distant 7th-place for Oval Office likelihood, as predicted by both Predictwise and Betfair, is … Ben Carson.)
