How will it end for Jeb? When will it? Here’s a thread to predictions about Jeb’s campaign demise. Like Scott Walker, Fred Thompson, or Newt (who did win a few primaries)?
He’d got enough money with even minimal new fundraising to keep going into March. Half the delegates in the GOP race are awarded by March 8th. There’s no particular personal reason to get out to support a later candidacy. Front runner to early drop is as damning as sticking around and losing big for later runs. He hasn’t held office for a while so it’s not like he’s building the resume for later anyway. It’s not till the 15th of March that winner takes all kicks in for some states (including Florida) where splitting the vote really has the potential to take a toll on someone he’d support if he couldn’t be President.
why drop before March unless he gets tired of trying. Maybe the horse will learn to sing.
Point of clarification: Does he have that money, or do PACs allied with him have that money? Because if it’s the latter, they can change their alliance to another candidate.
It’s the PACs that have the money. The Bush campaign is cutting costs.
I predict he’ll make it to Florida. Rubio will do better than him in Florida, and that will be it for Jeb! I also predict he’s not going to win any of the contests before Florida either.
It’s a cold night in New Hampshire. Having finished in fifth place, Jeb retreats to his hotel room after his concession speech. He Skypes with his parents and brother. On seeing his shocked face, they exclaim “oh shit!” and whip off their Trump baseball caps. Dejected, he knocks on Rand Paul’s door, they spend the night smoking weed. The next morning, Jeb announces his support for Trump.
The kind of attention he is getting is not the kind you want. The weakness of his campaign is getting more press now than the stupid stuff the other candidates are saying. It’s like the vultures are starting to circle the weakest of the heard - I think he’ll be done soon after the next GOP debate, where he’ll probably receive a knock-out punch from one of the other candidates (Rubio?), or do himself-in with another milquetoast performance.
Bush was fourth in the GOP field for inside the campaign money in the quarterly filing with 10.3 million on hand. He was spending more than anyone else having spent 11.5 mil in the third quarter. He absolutely needed to make cuts in the face of fundraising tailing off or risk hitting the wall like Perry. He’s done that. Depending on how badly fundraising drops he might have to be even more careful and targeted with his spending. He’s got money though no matter what the PACs do.
He can find enough money to keep going if he wants to, and doesn’t lose some key insider support. The second part is the unknown, the GOP high muckety-mucks want him to stick it out, he has his family supporters who still have influence pushing for him. The money is out there if he can avoid doing anything that would apparently disqualify him. His approach so far has been to do nothing, so keeping that up he can limp along until Super Tuesday. I don’t think he will though, if he thinks he’s under pressure now then he’s not going to be able to handle poor showings in the early primaries. If he exceeds his poll numbers in NH and Iowa the picture will change.
Yes, he’s still using the Romney strategy, planning to be a survivor, one of, or the, “electable” one left after the crazies knock each other out. He has no reason to leave until somebody else becomes the default “electable”, and that hasn’t happened yet even though it’s on its way.
I think he stays in until the Southern Primary season 1-15 March, but without a surge at that time that makes him a least a ‘contender’, he’ll be out by then.
It does surprise me; as a Democrat, I really figured that he would be the consensus pick, given the dingbat-level of many of his rivals, but unlike 2012, they are hanging on and Bush is the one fading. I still give him a 30% chance of pulling it out, but he’ll need something to energize the public, and he doesn’t seem to be the type.
When the chatter started last winter about Jeb possibly running, one thing a lot of people noted was that he last ran for office in 2002. And not only was that a lot of rust to shake off, but the political world has changed greatly since then.
Even given all that, he’s run a terrible campaign. You’d think that he’d have found his footing after most of a year on the campaign trail, but if anything, he looks and sounds worse now than he did back in the spring. And he doesn’t seem to have any more clue now about what makes the GOP primary electorate tick than he did back in the spring, either.
It really seems like he expected that he could jump in, raise a ton of money, scare everyone else off, and be crowned King of All the Republicans, with only a modest amount of effort. And then be tanned, rested, and ready to take on the Evil Witch Hillary in the fall. It hasn’t worked out like that, and he’s getting a mite testy about it.
It’s the impression that he really hasn’t gotten any better at this running-for-President gig, combined with the fact that he seems pissed at the world about that, rather than looking inside himself, that makes me doubt he can recover. People who aren’t succeeding, and reflect on what they themselves can do to improve things, have a chance. People who aren’t succeeding, and are pissed at life because of that, usually don’t.
don’t forget that they have a rather high burn rate. Those Super PACs can also switch their alliance.
Jeb could also drop out and direct those super PACs to support Kasich or Rubio if and only if he wants to save the family’s name/influence.
It’s too late for that - the Bushes are already part of the past, fortunately.
It won’t be El Jebe who directs the Super PAC’s who to switch to, either - their sponsors will do that.
The difference is that in Romney’s case everyone else was a clown in the clown car. Bush had to deal not just with the crazies, but with Rubio, Christie, and Kasich in the mainstream candidate lane. Romney had that lane all to himself. That makes Bush’s path a lot harder.
This bears repeating. I get the impression he felt, being a Bush, any competition would be easily brushed aside. That isn’t happening and now he’s just pissed and perplexed.
Another important difference is the Romney name wasn’t tarnished. JEB! is weighed down by his father and more importantly his brother. I get the feeling he had no clue how much that would impact the public’s attitude toward him.
He and his campaign remind me of Fred Thompson in '08 and Rick Perry in '12.
*Such *excitement and high expectations prior to their announcement, but after they started actually campaigning, *such *disappointment and embarrassment.
As of June both W and the elder Bush were viewed favorably in a poll- 52% and 64% favorable respectively. Digging in to the crosstabs W is 88% favorable among Republicans; +81% net. For Independents he’s 51% favorable and +7 net. HW is at 87%, +81 net among Republicans and 64%, +36% net. It’s only Democrats that view them negatively.
Jeb might be surprised that there’s not an impact in his favor from that legacy.
The guy comes across as impatient and condescending, as though the entire experience is beneath his station in life. Even when he smiles at people, it seems to be more just a baring of teeth without any warmth, than a friendly gesture. I instinctively dislike and mistrust the man, even without the Bush family.
It’s great to see. He’s never had to deal with an inability to use money and influence to get what he wants. And he knows his brother burnt those bridges behind him.