The GOP used to have “outsiders” like McCain, who were perhaps somewhat unpleasant to the party but were at least tractable. McCain-Feingold became McCain-Palin, after all. The base would fall in line behind those “outsiders” and the GOP maintained control.
Now, the base demands outsiders. Trump is the ultimate in this category, the ne plus ultra of not only “not a politician” but “incapable of being a politician” and “utterly unsuitable for office”; Carson and Cruz are less obviously frothing than him, usually, but they’re both in the same mold. The GOP can’t work with them. They’re not tractable. They’re either driven by their own ego to the point of not caring enough about politics to play the game, or they’re irrational to the point of being unmanageable.
So: Jeb is the one the GOP wants. Nobody else seems to want him. Trump is the one the base wants. The GOP absolutely cannot work with him, and his overall national popularity is somewhere between 10% and tofurkey. Rubio is the only plausible establishment candidate who hasn’t cratered, to the point of being a somewhat more Hispanic version of Jeb. The base probably doesn’t want anything more Hispanic than Taco Bell, and unless the GOP drops Jeb and shifts its endorsements and funding to Rubio he might not have enough money to survive the primary.
Bush won’t drop out. He’s a Bush. He believes that this is his moment. I don’t see how Bush wins the nomination, unless Trump implodes and the GOP establishment cries to Bush. If Bush is the nominee, I don’t see conservatives turning out for him and Hillary may just win in a landslide. If Bush does win the nomination, he wins NH, some of Super Tuesday, and California puts him on top. His running mate would be South Dakota Sen. John Thune (R-South Dakota). Thune is more conservative than Bush, has a Congressional record, and is a safe choice.
In fairness to Jeb, a well organized campaign will tend to outperform polls in early states, whereas disorganized “movements” or celebrity candidates will underperform, so he might not be wrong there. He’s certainly not doing well, but when the votes are counted he’ll probably have a few more points than the current polls show him having in IA and NH.
If Bush doesn’t rise, and soon, he apparently plans to take the GOP down with him, dividing the party into a Manichean Apocalyptic Battle Between Normal Republican Fuckery and Batshit Decadent Depravity. He’s betting the future of the party on the sanity of the Republican Primary Voter, which has been trained for decades to be as reactionary and as disconnected from consensus reality as humanly possible. It’s playing chicken against someone who honestly believes their car makes them 100% Death Proof.
I’ve said right along that most Republicans aren’t Trump supporters. I still think that. However, that does not mean I think most Republicans will necessarily back Bush if the primary contest comes down to Trump vs Bush. They could very easily stay home and not vote. Bush is betting on the sanity of the kinds of people who would vote if it were down to the third goddamned Bush versus Donald Duck Trump.
What on earth does he think he’ll find to say about these other idiots that will drive away their supporters? Anyone who is already so divorced from reality that they’d support Cruz or Rubio or Carson is not going to be dissuaded because JEB!, of all of people, says mean things about them.
What can JEB possibly say about Rubio that is both true and awful that isn’t equally true of himself? Also, he’s delusional if he thinks Cruz is an easier target than Trump.
They are, each of them, the Worst People in the World, trying to distinguish themselves to win the favor of Even Worster People. They have made themselves functionally immune to negative campaigning by openly being horrible people in order to appeal to voters who are even more horrible.
First I’ve heard of that. But remembering what Poppy did to Dukakis in '88 and what Dubya did to McCain in South Carolina in '00, nothing would surprise me.
Do Republicans still care if one of their own is having an affair? I mean, Jeb!'s whole thing is using a playbook from several decades ago, so sure, but I don’t think R’s actually believe in “family values”. It’s just a club they use to beat on the less fortunate. A simple, “I repent”, from Rubio would sort it all out.
Let’s see: on RCP, Jebbie’s gotten 5% in the latest NH poll (PPP), 6% and 4% in the two most recent Iowa polls (Monmouth and CNN/ORC), and 3% in the two most recent national polls (CNN/ORC and IBD/TIPP).
How are his donations doing? Seems to me that giving money to his campaign is like doing CPR on a mummy. Sure it would come back if he moves up but really with all the money he has spent he’s still getting lapped by several others now. The establishment has got to rally around someone else before Trump starts to write his acceptance speech. Oh silly me, Trump will ad lib the speech anyway.
In Iowa, Jeb is currently running ads picturing Trump, Cruz and Rubio behind the desk in the Oval Office, asking voters to imagine how they’d handle terrorism. He dings Cruz for voting against increased surveillance, dings Rubio for not showing up for work, and dings Trump for, basically, being a fuckwit. Throw in the obligatory “Obama is clueless on terrorism, count on a Bush to keep you safe” and there you have it.
If this strategy to go after everyone but Trump to set up crazyTrump vs steadyBush was ever a thing, looks like that’s gone out the window.
Bush came out strong this summer with the amount of money he raised, riding on the legacy of his name. He clearly had his hands in the deepest pockets and his initial quarterly filings were huge because there was a certain inevitability felt by the GOP establishment that Bush would carry the nomination. Since then, the pool has become huge, and Rubio has managed to divert a lot of those donations his way (chances are, he will get Adelson’s donation).
Because of this, I think it’s a three-way race between Bush, Rubio and Trump. I think Bush can turn the criticism that he lacks charisma or that he seems uncomfortable in his own skin into a reasonable alternative to the hard-right proposals of Trump and Rubio. That said, these are the primaries we are talking about, and movement towards the extremes has its place here. Either way, it is still too early to tell who will prevail among the GOP candidates, because there are simply too many at this time. I’m eagerly awaiting Iowa and NH.
