People have heard of him. They just seem to be bored with him, and not exactly eager to embark on a third Bush Presidency.
Romney had the same problem early in the primary season and look how well he ended up doing.
I think the public’s indifference to Jeb! runs deaper than the reluctance to embark on another Bush Presidency. He would be uninspiring even if he wasn’t related to GWB.
Cough cough
That’s right: He went just as far as any Republican has since the rise of the Tea Party. Now we’ll get to see how far Republicans can go subsequent to the rise of Trump.
Yep, so far he, the Serious Adult Republican Presidential Contender, has been very nearly as successful as Sarah Palin when it comes to keeping politically relevant.
As 538 noted, guys like Bush were cleaning the clock of Trump regarding endorsements. Once the time is seen to be right to really start with the propaganda the ones making the endorsements will be key in mobilizing voters.
Of course it could happen that those making the endorsements could move to the Trump camp, but the problem here is that then those supporters will not demonstrate any loyalty whatsoever and I do think that many of those endorsements, specially the ones coming from moderates, will jump off the Trump ship if he manages to get the Republican nomination.
Could be. Hillary got a lot of early endorsements in 2007-2008, especially among black politicians, that eventually went to Obama once he started making inroads.
If he wasn’t a member of the Bush [del]crime[/del] family, nobody would have urged him to run, and nobody would care if he did. He’d be down there with Pataki in the polls, and no doubt in the fundraising too.
FWIW, I just don’t see this year shaping up like 2012; it’s more the negative image of it. The Establishment had its candidate in Romney, and the outsiders had their succession of putzes who couldn’t hold up to even the briefest inspection. This time, the outsiders have Trump, while the ‘big’ Establishment candidates are all polling in single digits.
But even if you summed up Bush and Walker and Rubio and Kasich and Christie (averaged over the three most recent polls at RCP), you get 26%.
The problem is, nobody wants any of these guys. And Trump’s basically given the GOP base the room to say to themselves that they don’t want these guys. And if one of them ends up being the nominee, there are going to be a LOT of unhappy Republicans.
I’m not saying that the “party leaders really choose the nominee” theory will fail this time, but if it succeeds, it’ll be a Pyrrhic victory.
I don’t think Jeb knows what to do at this point, which is understandable since it seems to me to be unprecedented. If I’m in the Bush camp, I’m not sure if I’d be happy about one outsider sucking all the air from the likes of Huckabee and Paul or be unhappy that Bush looks all but certain to lose Iowa and New Hampshire.
If I’m playing the cards Bush has been dealt, I just ignore Trump and hope that guys like Walker and Kasich are driven from the race early, and that the party establishment rallies behind Bush after the non-Trump alternatives retire from the race. Maybe not a great strategy but it seems to me the best he’s got. If he goes after Trump he pisses off a lot of the base.
It will never happen. But a Republican who loudly jettisoned the base “We need smaller, less expensive and intrusive government, to stay out of foreign entanglements other than to make friends, to be the best nation we can be and thereby encourage the best of the rest of the world to join us, to quit blaming immigrants and gays for our problems, and quit whining about our personal religious beliefs, because everyone’s got 'em, ya know?” would gain more votes than s/he lost. Even among Republicans. And then we could start shrinking the population of the truly awful, who doesn’t even believe in abstract concepts like “politics” and “America.”
That’s only plausible if you can steal some Democrats away with that platform. And the problem is that there are probably more ignorant Democratic votes to be won than enlightened ones, so might as well go for the jugular and try to win that 38% of Democrats that don’t believe in evolution.
Anyway, I think at this point anyone but Bush can be the nominee. Trump’s showing enough strength now that if he’s serious, he can pull it off. I’m just still not sure he’s serious. None of the establishment candidates are looking strong. So we’re either going to get an outsider, or we’re not. If we’re accepting that it’s not really different this time, then an establishment candidate must eventually win. So logically, since they are all polling in single digits, any one of them could emerge from the field. Even one that was at the kiddie table.
THe only one I’d count out is Bush, since with his money and name recognition he’d be expected to at the very least dominate the establishment pack. He’s just not. He’s 5th in IA(3rd among establishment pols), and 3rd in NH(2nd among establishment pols), and 3rd nationally(with under 10%). If it was going to be Bush, we’d have seen the party rallying around him already.
But Kasich, Walker, Rubio, Huck, Christie, Paul, even Jindal and Graham, could emerge from the pack if the outsiders implode.
Yes, I agree that Republicans have better chances to win ignorant voters than enlightened ones. For some unexplained reason, Republican belief in evolution is shrinking. Perhaps as people unlearn their science or listen to enough Hate Radio, they turn Republican. Strange party, that one that depends on voter ignorance.
Both parties depend on the ignorant, otherwise Republicans would be winning high school dropouts. Democrats are, by a big margin. There’s nothing wrong with trying to figure out what would make those voters vote for Republicans instead. And you don’t have to appeal to ignorance to do it. Few are basing their votes on evolution, but presumably those that dont believe in it are religious voters, so it would be easy to portray Democrats as anti-religion given how narrowly they want to interpret the 1st amendment and how they aren’t so sure about the Religious Freedom Restoration Act anymore.
You forgot Cruz (seriously – I think he’s in the best position to get Trump’s supporters should he falter).
Misleading, in reality the big advantage is among the ones with a post graduate degree, the Democrats have a big advantage there (22% over), in other levels, like the ones with no college or no high school diploma the edge is less, with Democrats ahead by 8 percentage points. The Republicans have trouble finding capable candidates from those top levels.
Of notice there is this bit about women voters with an education:
That I’ll chalk up to my wishful thinking.
Cruz can’t win a general election. He’s actually less electable than Trump, because Trump is at least an outsider with populist positions that are not GOP orthodoxy. Cruz is just a far right Republican down the line. He’s also uncompromising, which is fine for a Senate backbencher but not what we need in a President.
So I think that Cruz is probably not going to happen for the same reason far right candidates never win the nomination. That’s why we haven’t had GOP nominees Santorum, Robertson, or Buchanan. Although all seem to do okay in the early primaries before the GOP voter base figures out they’d actually like to win.
I don’t really think Trump’s support is even inheritable, since as many op-ed writers have pointed out, Trump’s doing well among people who don’t usually vote in primaries. So these folks are either voting for Trump, or only saying they’ll vote for him but don’t intend to vote. So when Trump flames out his support probably doesn’t transfer to anyone.
Nah, he still has a chance. See below.
Can’t put anything past you.
He’s still got most of that $100M he’s raised. If he ever stops sleepwalking through the campaign, he’ll be the Establishment candidate to worry about.
And as things move along, I’m starting to take seriously the possibility of a brokered convention for the first time in 40 years. (Odds are still against it, but they’re getting shorter all the time.) Particularly the possibility that Trump could do well enough in the primaries to win a plurality but not a majority is a real one, IMHO. And if that happens, who is the GOP’s Hubert Humphrey?
Nah: Walker and Rubio might still have a shot (though I doubt it), but Kasich, Huckabee, Christie, Paul, Jindal, Graham, Perry, Santorum, Fiorina, Pataki, and Gilmore - none of those guys have a chance. They are white noise. They’re unlikely to even have an effect on the race. (Carson won’t win, but he *is *affecting the shape of the race. The guy is looking like a good bet to finish in the top two in Iowa, and could even win there.)
Kasich leads the establishment candidates in NH. A NH win would give him momentum, especially since no establishment candidate is likely to do well in IA if current polling holds up.
Jeb! will be one of Colbert’s guests on his new Late Show’s premiere tonight, FWIW: How Jeb Bush And Joe Biden Stole Stephen Colbert's 'Late Night' Premiere Spotlight, And How That Could Hurt Him