Apparently the Conservatives are talking up their chances in Copeland and downplaying Stoke. Apparently Corbyn’s long-standing anti-nuke (power and subs) doesn’t play well in an area where they build subs and run nuclear power stations - so long-term Labour voters are sitting this one out. The betting markets are giving it 70% Tory, 30% Labour, although that just reflects what bettors think, not any great truth. I think the shitty weather will probably save it for Labour - turnout depressed all over.
Stoke was stronger for Labour, so I suspect they’ll hold it too.
Stoke stayed Labour, but Copeland’s gone Tory - the first time a Government has won a by-election from the Opposition since 1982. Both have been safe Labour seats for decades.
I seem to have a nagging memory about the state of the parties in 1982 - perhaps history is repeating itself.
Labour’s share down in both elections, in fact they’ve made no grounds in by-elections at all during Corbyn’s reign. Tories and Lib-Dems both up.
Frankly I don’t know what other messages the Labour party need to see, what better evidence do they need to show Corbyn is a bust? The biggest open goal in political history and they manage not only to miss but to somehow rebound off the bar and back into their own net.
The usual talking heads for Labour are whinging about special circumstances like nuclear power and perceptions of a divided party. Well, seeing as the party is divided because most Labour MP’s think Corbyn is a crap leader and the nuclear question is directly attributable to Corbyn’s own thinking on the subject…I cannot see how poor Little Jeremy is an innocent bystander subject to the winds of misfortune and fate.
He is simply not seen as a leader. Not by the public and not by those who work most closely with him.
Now at some point the Labour vote will bottom out and therein lies the great danger. If Corbyn clings to power until that point there will inevitably come a poll that shows a small uptick. That will be pounced upon as evidence of progress and justification for Corbyn remaining as opposition leader. The danger being that he is then in place until the next election and who knows what will happen to labour then,
I’d kick him out now but he seems determined to hold on regardless of what the voters say.
You’re not wrong about Corbyn. But there’s a powerful amount of delusion still floating around his wing of the party: it’s all Blair’s fault for making that Brexit speech, the former Labour MP who stood down was unpopular, so the electorate punished the new candidate, the vote for the government was a protest against the establishment, actually it was a really good performance that pushed the Tories close… the ones who are admitting that nuclear might have something to do with it are the ones closest to reality.
The problem the sane wing of the Labour party have is that they’ve already tried and failed to oust Corbyn. They don’t have a charismatic alternative leader waiting in the wings, they don’t know how to appeal to the membership and they don’t know have any other way to shift him. Waiting for him to fuck up so badly that even his core supporters lose faith isn’t a terrible strategy, but you still need to be able to strike a clinching blow once he’s weakened. And I don’t believe they’ve got it in them right now.
Labour needed 18 years in opposition last time around; the Tories needed 13 years.
Anyway, by the time of the next election in 2020 much may have changed. As Harold Wilson is said to have said, ‘A week is a long time in politics.’ The Tories seem to be fucking up Brexit without help from Labour and they will be judged on that in 2020.
I’ve just read this article, which may be of interest. It seems that the Tories are gaining the Working Class C2/DE vote. Shades of Thatcher and Mondeo Man.
Yes, I’ve just seen that article. It’s really tells a story, and the graph of the slide in working class support since Corbyn was first elected is eye-opening. I do think he stretches a point a little when he talks about the working class appeal of May - the graph he uses does show an increase in her approval ratings over two months, but it clearly shows a bigger increase in disapproval. She does have better appeal than Cameron but she’s hardly bullet-proof. And of course its very difficult to know how much of that approval is due to her good luck in being compared to Corbyn. A more effective Labour leader with greater appeal to the working class would almost by definition be doing a better job of making her look bad to these voters.
Assuming Labour is still seen as the number two choice then. What happened in Scotland could be repeated in other regions. The Libdems running hard on no Brexit, or if the UKIP gets their shit together under someone charismatic could overtake the Labour we are seeing now, at least regionally.
I think you are right and that should raise even more red flags for labour (pun not intended, but I’m happy to claim it anyway) because it suggests this might not be as bad as it can get.
I think we are going to see a reduction in UKIP support, if for no other reasons then they seem to have served their purpose, those votes are not likely to go to labour under the current regime. We are also likely to see a move back to Lib-Dem as they provide a clear voice against Brexit. I don’t really see a strong message or opposition from labour that will bring voters flocking to their side and so they seem doomed to be squeezed in four dimensions. A) UKIP to Tory B)Labour to Lib-Dem C) Boundary changes D) the unparalleled unpopularity of Corbyn with the electorate in general.
Consider the key players in his current cabinet, Diane Abbot (FFS), John McDonnell…plus some others.
His shadow cabinet could look like…Chuka Umunna, Yvette Cooper, Chris Leslie, Caroline Flint, Dan Jarvis, Keir Starmer, Hilary Benn, Lisa Nandy, Liz Kendall, Jon Ashworth, Stella Creasey, Stephen Kinnock, Angela Eagle, Ed Milliband. He does not have the personal capital, charisma or visions to command loyalty and service from his most talented MP’s. He has “lost the dressing room” and that only ends in one of two ways. A downward spiral to a dead cat bounce or a hastily written note and a service revolver in desk drawer.
Corbyn deserves the chance to mature his leadership skills after his surprise victory, he has made progress and the Tories don’t seem keen for an election.
I’d be very surprised if Corbyn was leader at the next election if the polls don’t improve, probably leaving of his own accord. Dan Jarvis and Kier Starmer are my fav’s for the Labour leader at the next General Election.
perhaps not in Copeland but other constituencies will be more amenable to such a swing, certainly those that voted remain and are currently in Labour hands will be key Lib-Dem
I’m not suggesting they are towering political giants, merely that they are more credible than many of the current bunch who have been cobbled together through necessity rather than talent.
Remember…Diane Abbot is shadow Foreign Secretary…Diane Abbot, yes…*.that *Diane Abbot
Ed’s too valuable to be left on the sidelines - he’s a clever man who can master a brief, and knows how to argue a point. He clearly doesn’t want a position in the Corbyn clowncar shadow cabinet though. I don’t know enough about Kinnock jr to comment on him.
But Christ Almighty, the Corbyn loyal team is dismal. Cat Smith actually said this live on TV after the Copeland result “At a point where we’re 15 to 18 points behind in the polls, to push the Conservatives within 2,000 votes I think is an incredible achievement here in Copeland.”. That level of disconnect from reality is, well, it’s a bit student union politics for babbys.
Labour is in a sorry state at the moment: the party is split into two wings both of whom are just a step away from open warfare with each other, but neither of whom’s preoccupations coincide with the preoccupations of the electorate. However Corbyn’s main problem is that he just hasn’t provided effective leadership. He also wastes time on issues which are at best neutral and at worst damaging to Labour’s electoral prospects such as his strong anti-nuclear stance, which would be forgivable if he could set out some kind of stall of policies or ideas that would improve Labour’s prospects.
This trouble for Labour doesn’t seem likely to end soon either as Corbyn has near-fanatical support among a large section of the grassroots whom he is nearly a messianic figure sent to deliver them from the yoke the Tories and Blairites. Perhaps even worse is that it is questionable if Labour even have someone who can do a better job than Corbyn. They need someone who is very much like Tony Blair, but who can convince people he/she is nothing like Tony Blair.