Joe Biden's in

Politics & Elections
441

Yeah, believing in policies that would actually benefit people instead of rooting for a candidate who straight up says he wont make one iota of difference behind closed doors (why is this Joe Biden Promises Rich Donors He Won't 'Demonize' The Wealthy If Elected President | HuffPost Latest News not mentioned in this thread?) is obviously the rational choice. Those people who defend real change? Loonies, all of them.

Wow. I didn’t think it possible, but with arguments like these, how could I possibly continue to support her? I mean, flip flopping on key issues under political pressure with obviously no intent of actually manifesting that position change in actual policy is such a good reason to vote for someone, and looks and voice are such a great reason to vote against someone, I guess I’ll have to switch my vote.

442

So you don’t care about appealing to the broad main of the population? Just about scratching your own special itches? :dubious:

ETA: In case you’re not familiar with my posting history, Biden is one of my least preferred candidates. Beto, Inslee, or Booker would be my preference. But Biden’s a smarter bet, at least, than Buttigieg, Warren, or especially Sanders.

443

I don’t think Biden’s in any danger of losing to Warren at the moment - the polling is pretty steady for Biden. Even in spite of some of his speaking gaffes, Biden hasn’t declined enough for anyone to be that concerned, IMO - at least not nationally. I think Iowa and NH will be close - those races always are. But he’s in a good position to finish in the top two in those races, and then I think it’s going to be tougher for Bernie and Warren to keep up after that. At least that’s how it looks now. However, the debates could (and probably will) change the trajectory.

Yes, I’ve looked at Warren. She’s not personally my top choice, but there’s no debating that she has substance and energy that many people in the party (and even outside of it) find appealing. She’s also, IMO, running a good ground game. She’s getting out into many of the Trump-leaning counties across the country. I personally hope she doesn’t get the nomination, but I think it’s within the realm of possibility that she does. She’d almost certainly be a weaker challenger than an unscathed Biden, but I also don’t think she’d be a complete disaster against, either. I do think choosing the right veep would be especially important in her case, though.

444

Let’s hope. Again, given the territory, picking up 3 seats is significantly easier than picking up 4.

445

RCP’s average is far from ideal, but since 538 isn’t making theirs public, it’s the best I can find. But according to RCP, Biden’s lost >78% of his announcement bounce: from 29.3% to 41.4% to 31.9%. In less than two months.

He still has a comfortable lead in the polls, but ‘steady’ isn’t the word I’d apply to his poll numbers.

446

A bounce is just that - I don’t think anyone believed it would last. But having said that, I think the real polling will start once the candidates are seen by millions of viewers in debates and on the campaign trail. We’re about to see how strong Biden really is.

447

Lol, none of y’all actually seem to know black people or even follow black influencers on Twitter (Black Twitter - it’s a thing!).

So, what does Propane Jane have to say about Joe?

Jason Johnson, MSNBC contributor:

“Biden’s harkening back to the good old days when “good” white men battled “bad” white men in elite spaces on literal life and death issues for Black people is not only anachronistic but insulting to many voters.”

Karine Jean-Pierre on “Morning Joe” (today):

"“I think it was offensive, using segregationists as an example and saying that it was a civil time. When he says those things it brings back a time for black Americans, at that time, who did not see this environment as civil to them.” "

https://t.co/FmtuOFledn

Biden is operating on name recognition and a desire to have a “safe, electable, white male President” on the part of many older Dems. But he will get slaughtered as the campaign nears because there is just too much baggage on him to keep the Dem coalition together enough to beat Trump.

448

Is this a whoosh? :confused: Have you really not gotten the memo that Twitter is not representative of the Democratic primary electorate?
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/448984-2020-democrats-look-to-cut-into-bidens-lead-with-black-voters

449

Utterly ridiculous and stupid reactions from people who clearly didn’t take the time to listen to what he said. He was speaking clearly in the context of working with other legislators and the necessity to be civil even when we disagree vehemently over the substance of politics, and he couldn’t be more right. In no way did he romanticize segregation and he clearly wasn’t suggesting that people are wrong to speak out against injustice.

It figures that twitter is where the outrage machine is to be found. People follow each other on twitter and regurgitate the same filtered bullshit instead of listening to it and thinking about something in its entirety and in its context. What’s scary is that social media and the filtered internet are the lenses through we view politics, and the nature of it, with people of a like mind following each other and reacting to each other regardless of how accurate their takes are, have had a lot to do with the kinds of polarization that Biden is trying to fight against.

450

I do get the sense that political journalists have been chastened by the recent polls and stories about how unrepresentative Twitter is. They aren’t going to stop using Twitter by any means, but are at least intending to heavily discount the Twitter zeitgeist from here out.

451

LOL, for a peep at Bidens future as the Dem nominee, I present unto you the conservative newspaper, Washington Examiner:

‘Insensitive … stupid’: CNN anchor slams Biden for his comments on segregationist senators

Biden hails segregationists in old Senate: ‘At least there was some civility. We got things done’

From the same source:

Kellyanne Conway: Trump’s Charlottesville comments were ‘darn near perfection’

Soon we will see lists of every bill co-sponsored by Biden and some now-dead and now-recognized-as-racist lawmaker. Guarantee it.

452

LOL, didn’t you note that I quoted MSNBC?

453

So…you think this will be a problem for him in the general election? Which voters do you envision abandoning Biden in favor of Donald “very fine people on both sides” Trump? :confused:

454

Especially that 41 (!)

That said he’s gone from prebounce with his nearest competitor being only about 6 points away, to his nearest being 26 below at bounce peak and now down to 17 points above the next in line with more than twice the support than anyone else. Average prebounce period was 10 points above the number two.

He is now 5 points above Warren and Sanders together. Prebounce he was tied with them put together and peak bounce he got up to 19 above their combined very briefly.

So if Sanders (support gradually falling off) dropped out and threw all of his support to Warren (support gradually growing) she’d be behind but it would be a tight race, especially as I think she will do well in debate phase.

Odds of Sanders doing that? Close to zero. And his floor is solid. There are enough Bernie or Busters that he won’t get below 7 if even 8.

Warren’s best hope is that Harris and Buttigieg start poaching more off of Biden as she consolidates the Warren-Sanders lane.

Or that Biden has a Muskie moment.
And yeah “Twitter influencers” do not reflect voters or really influence them much. Biden has the unique advantage of connecting fairly well with older voters, with white noncollege-educated voters, and Black voters all at the same time. White college-educated he is fine with too. His weakness is with the white young progressives, who are loud voices in the Twitterverse and voting more than they had, but not yet a big enough force to outweigh the rest of the tent.

But of course we will see his entire long record examined and things held up. The problem with having actually done things for a long time is that some of those things can be held up as not good choices from the current vantage point.

SlackerInc Team Trump will bring those up. Not to get Black votes but to decrease the turnout. Obama campaigning for Biden in the general though will more than offset it.

455

Good post!

456

According to five of the most recent polls, Biden is still way up on the competition.

In these five polls, which were posted within the past week, Biden averages 31.6%. Bernie comes in well behind that at 14.8 percent, with Warren close behind at 11.8%. Warren has had the most forward momentum of any candidate by far.

I would also expect a less stability in the coming months, once the press coverage is consistent and once the debates start. Once they become more widely viewed, we’ll probably see some shifting. But Biden’s in a very strong position going into the debates.

One caveat is that these are national polls. Iowa and NH will probably show much tighter polling, but nationally, Biden’s in a good spot – at least for now

457

Last two in IA (YouGov and Selzer) both have Biden +8 over next closest. For apples to apples YouGov IA is Biden 30 (+8) and last national Biden 26 (+12), both with Warren and Sanders neck and neck in number two. So yes tighter but I’d expect national to settle into IA range of tightness and less major change from here in Biden’s lead there, more shifts of who is leading the second tier pack. I’m still guessing Warren and Harris to emerge as the main challengers with any chance as it settles in - they both have mad debate skillz. And I think many of us who have Biden as our place holder (support but not with enthusiasm) are open to being convinced by the likes of them that they have what it takes to solidly destroy Trump. We can be won over.

458

Oh YouGov NH is Biden blowing it out +13.

459

‘Influencers’ - they’re a thing.

What small fraction of the population do they ‘influence’, I have to ask?

And will ‘influencers’ still be a thing six months from now, or will it be something new?

This, on both counts. Twitter is a great place for some interesting discussions, but it’s far from representative of the larger world. And while I may wish it weren’t so, the fact is that Biden’s polling quite well among African-Americans.

460

If it’s not a whoosh, he apparently thinks that following black people on Twitter and reading articles means he knows black people. To quote JohnT: LOL.