Pretty sure** Richard Parker** is being ironic there.
Yes. Just to be clear, I think Joe Biden is a bad candidate because he is very old and has taken very conservative positions on a number of important issues, not least of all racial equity (which is of course a big part of why he was selected as Obama’s VP).
Nate Silver thinks that Biden is in an interesting position in that he’s sort of the frontrunner, but not really. He’s leading in the polls and endorsements, but not by the massive margins that Gore or Hillary had at this point in their campaigns. He’s quite popular with older voters and moderates, but much less so with younger voters and progressives. He’s averaging 25-30% currently, so to win without a brokered convention, he’d need to almost double that.
So does he run like the frontrunner, not aggressively attacking other candidates, taking the high road and focusing on attacking Trump? That strategy worked for Hillary, even though she constantly lost support to Sanders throughout the primary season. But her lead at the start of the campaign was so large that she could afford to do that; Biden’s current lead is nowhere near that large.
Or should he be the guy aceplace wants him to be and rally his army of grumpy old white guys to do battle against the evil forces of identity politics and socialism? Would that increase his support much, or are most of the voters who would respond to that already on his side?
Silver also makes a point that I have been making for a while, that a large part of Biden’s support is based on the perception that he is the most “electable” candidate (the linked article links to recent surveys confirming that Dems do view Biden that way). But this may be largely a function of name recognition; Hillary had massive leads in perceived electability early in both her campaigns, but those largely evaporated as voters became more familiar with the other guys. IOW, Biden’s position at the top of the polls could be self-reinforcing; many of his supporters might be quick to bail if his numbers start to slip, or if he underperforms in early primaries.
Also, I wonder to what extent Biden (and Sanders) might be vulnerable to opponents who make their age a major issue. Sanders didn’t really have to deal with that last time, because Hillary was keeping the gloves on and was no spring chicken herself. I could see that line of attack potentially knocking both of them down a few notches if it were aggressively pursued.
I have no problem with Biden or most of the other candidates, but he’ll need to shift from “Trump evil” to “country good” very quickly. Trump thrives on hate, so the Dem candidates need to take their sails out of his wind.
Maybe he’ll be able to give Elvira that government post.
But I don’t think Worm will be able to fill in for him, like when he was VP.
But he’s not currently running against Trump. In the context of a Democratic primary, lambasting Trump is an uplifting, unifying, noncontroversial message.
…forty years ago (as it says in the first words of the cite).
Nothing personal, RP, but wake me when they have something from this century.
Disclaimer: not in the tank for Joe.
I’m curious as to what makes the “far left” or “ultra left” so awful, but I don’t want to hijack this thread. So I’ve started another.
I’m a hard pass on Joe, and I agree that’s a stupid line of attack. Nobody is going to decide that Obama’s VP is a closet racist because he said some bad stuff forty years ago, nor should they. Biden’s base of support is older moderates, and I’m guessing most of that demographic also hold more enlightened views on racial issues today than they did forty years ago, so they’re unlikely to hold it against him.
Here’s one
What’s his stance on medicare? Free at point of use? If not, why should anyone waste their time on him.
They tried ‘Not Trump’ In 2016, and they lost.
nm
You may have not read the first link. It lays out a pretty compelling case.
TBH I’m not going to cater my posts to accommodate aceplace.
You could also ask, why should anyone waste their time on Bernie, who proposes single-payer universal health care?
I mean, it’s a great idea, but in the current American political landscape it makes him unelectable. That guy you mention above who beat Hillary? He proposed going in the opposite direction, and repealing Obamacare. And he won, despite having no actual ideas at all. Does that make “free health care at point of use” sound like a winning proposition in today’s right-wing America?
Yeah, it does. A majority of people in the US want it.
Now THIS really pisses me off.
A few observations about that, which I’ve seen before and which is obviously encouraging as far as it goes. But …
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This must be the famous “silent majority” who apparently don’t bother voting.
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The support for public UHC was even higher between 2000 and 2008. So this is not new. Yet Obama could only pass a highly watered-down version of it, notably without the public option.
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The polling prior to 2000 isn’t shown. But only six years prior, Hillary’s health care initiative during the Clinton administration failed completely.
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If Bernie (or anyone else supporting public UHC) becomes the nominee, you can expect both Republicans and the omnipotent health insurance lobby to come out swinging and attacking like they’ve never attacked before. It will make the “Harry and Louise” ad blitz that helped kill the Clinton reform initiative seem like an afternoon in daycare. There will be horror stories, scare tactics, dire warnings about death panels, anti-socialist tirades. They will destroy Bernie, totally and completely. They know how to do it. These people have been able to turn war heroes into putative criminals when it served their purposes.
I would, of course, love to be proven wrong about all of this. But I think it accurately reflects the current political landscape – the one that elected Trump.
I’m glad we have a year to let things settle and learn more about the vast panoply of would-be nominees. Personal favorites are Swalwell (he’s fucking awesome), Buttigieg, Booker, Biden, Warren, Harris… basically, anyone but Gillibrand.
In November 2020? I will vote for the Democratic nominee. Literally anyone. A balloon on a stick, SpongeBob Squarepants, Toonces the cat, even (holding my nose) Kristen Gilibrand.
Why am I sticking Biden up in my top four? He’s made votes I most definitely do not approve of. But I think he’s a smart, inquisitive, thoughtful, compassionate and (at least when I’ve seen him interviewed recently) sharp and well-informed person. Also, humble and funny, two things that are less important but much missed in our current narcissistic, venal, shitheaded president.