The good news for him is that his home state is on Super Tuesday right after the slow Feb start in IA, NH, SC, and NV. The really bad news is California moved their primary to Super Tuesday on March 3rd. It’s now an extra super Tuesday that does even more to crush the hopes of anyone still looking for a constituency …and campaign funds.
Maybe Nevada is his one shot. ISTR the democratic electorate is skewed Hispanic. It’s a caucus which can produce odd results. Of course, it’s also a caucus that probably benefits more from strong campaign staff than IA and NH retail politics. Even that isn’t until Feb 15th.
California’s timing shift is a big change compared to recent campaign cycles for both parties.
Nevada is right next door to California and Harris has spent a good amount of time in the state already, with strong ties to Democrats there, both in leadership and among activists.
IF she places higher than him in Iowa then his chances in Nevada are nil.
Just to be clear, the talk of February and March refers to 2020, eight? This is still only 2018. The Democrats have 14 months to stage campaigns, debates, etc. before the “Super Tuesday.” Fourteen whole months.
Staging a campaign takes money, which for most running on the D side means donors. Some have that lined up to some degree already. Some can get it after Iowa and NH if they do surprisingly well there. Again, not necessarily winning, but in a crowded field with some expected to be 1, 2 and 3, displacing one of them and taking that bronze spot on the podium in at least one of them. Next set of debates you get more questions and screen time. Okay maybe Nevada can save you too, especially with a big state easier for you to win and stack up some points on Super Tuesday (TX for Castro and CA for Harris).
But unless the field winnows fast so that you are the only other choice than the front runner(s), starting to build your campaign chest then is going to be very hard.
So yes fourteen months to press a lot of flesh in Iowa and NH and NV. Maybe he can hit a chord and others can whiff. Not impossible. But I think he’s more running for VP and that is a tough lift itself.
Trump wasn’t elected by virtue of being a white male. he was elected because he had an actual brand that distinguished him from other Republicans. Castro is the very definition of average Democrat, and one who can’t even win statewide. Given an opportunity at the federal level, he did… not much.
He’s handsome, within the mainstream, and Latino. That’s pretty much the beginning and end of his appeal.
I get arguments about electability, but I think you’re barking up the wrong tree. Latinos don’t vote for Latinos reliably(if they did, Kamala Harris wouldn’t be in the picture: Lorretta Sanchez would be Senator right now), nor do they turn out to vote reliably, and finally, they don’t swing many EVs. The most electable candidates are one of these two:
White male semi-conservative with working class cred: Joe Biden, Jim Webb.
Young black candidate who will bring out black and young voters: Deval Patrick, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris.
In case you haven’t noticed, Trump’s “actual brand” is that he’s a white male. (The rest is just frosting.) He’s distinguished from other Republicans because he explicitly promotes and condones self-aggrievement for white males.
I don’t know anything about Castro, one way or another–and I don’t really care at this point–but to insist that Trump wasn’t elected because of identity politics is putting your head into the sand, along with all the Republicans in Congress.
You’re failing to distinguish between being elected on a platform of “white males rule!” vs. just being a white male, like Jeb Bush. If Julian Castro was running on a La Raza platform, that would at least make him unique. Instead, he’s just a mainstream Democrat who happens to be Latino. So again, what is the value of Castro over Amy Klobuchar, Deval Patrick, Cory Booker, or Marty O’Malley?