This is part of a larger concept that points out that proposed efforts to make things safer will actually change peoples’ behavior so that they take more risk.
Seat belts, motorcycle helmets, tornado alarms can have this counterintuitive property. If you think that a seat belt or air bag will protect you in the case of a crash you might drive faster or weave in and out of traffic or not slow down in the rain. If you start depending on tornado alarms you might not pay as much attention to the sky. And if you assume that other people are obeying all traffic signs, you might not be as alert for the people who aren’t.
What critical to remember is that no change can ever have a purely positive effect. It must always be the net sum of the positive and the negative. It’s seldom clear how to measure that. Just finding all the factors that need to be included is close to impossible, let alone quantifying each one. Nor can you ever measure what doesn’t happen because of the change. In the real world, seat belts were perceived to be a net positive because they appeared to save lives and reduce the seriousness of injuries.
The rationale behind putting signs on streets - of all traffic laws - is that real world drivers were acting dangerously. Accidents did happen. Lives were lost. Pedestrians were hit. Property was damaged. Signage appeared to ameliorate this. Any individual sign or law, such as a speed limit, made the street safer.
The question is whether the total effect of the multitude of signs and laws cumulatively results in a net negative. How many different commands can you juggle in your mind simultaneously as you drive? How complacent do you get about other drivers? Would driving with more attention (or, with greater paranoia) have the same effect of reducing your speed and forcing you to watch at intersections?
The answer is: possibly. That, at least, is the theory behind this experiment. In the short term, redesigning streets to force drivers to make decisions that the signs once made for them seems to be an improvement. What happens in the long term, though? Changes makes changes in behavior. Will drivers stick with their altered, safer, behavior? Or will they adjust to this new reality and go back to more individual patterns in the knowledge that they are not in violation for doing so?
Nobody knows the answer to that. They do know that the current system has made driving enormously safer. There are far fewer automobile deaths today that 60 years ago, even though the miles driven have multiplied. That is a net effect of changes to both cars and streets, and so is hard to divvy up.
I try to drive today assuming that all other drivers are insane maniacs who are liable to do anything at any moment. But the truth is that most of the time I just drive. Would I be more cautious and drive slower and safer if I kept to my ideal? Yes, almost certainly. Can I do so every minute in the fog of everyday dull thinking-about-the-destination reality? Almost certainly not. Do I drive more cautiously if I’m in a strange city? Sure, everybody does. Do I go on autopilot on the streets that I drive every day and know so well the car almost drives itself home? Sure, everybody does. That’s the dilemma for street changers. Can they introduce just enough uncertainty to increase safety or does the increased uncertainty lead to increased pain. It’s a fascinating experiment that mostly people will want other people to try first.