I was at the gym today and I got into a conversation with 3 people about Iraq while we were watching CNN at the water fountain. Someone made the comment that they were glad we (the US) were leaving at the end of June. I had to explain to all three of them that we were not leaving at the end of June. I don’t think they believed me. One of them went so far as to say if Bush broke the June 30th deadline he was losing his vote. How many people are out there that believe the US will be gone from Iraq at the end of June? Is there polling on this? Are there enough uninformed people that are going to be pissed at the end of June to hurt the President?
(I was hoping this people were just three brain dead idoits but I was talking to a friend of mine about this and she has run into others who believe the US is leaving at the end of June.)
Damn! I’d never even thought of anything like that. Come to think of it, I’d often wondered why the “handover of sovereignty” Bushwah was of any consequence, why anyone would give a chit. They’d made it abundantly clear that the first official act of the new! improved! Iraqi governance was to sign an entreaty to beg the US forces to remain. (and, perhaps, a few minor trade agreements…nothing to see here, move along, you looky-loos…).
But it would be incredibly, unbelievable stupid to permit such a ill-informed public opinion to fester. Unless, of course, they’re just making it up as they go along and hoping for some miracle. But that would be just too galacticly brain-dead.
It would, wouldn’t it? I need a little reassurance here. They’re not that stupid, right? Right?
Perhaps they are the same group who believe that Iraq was invaded because Saddam was helping Al Qaeda, and that the WMD have already been found?
These people might even believe that the US had pulled out on the 30th and that pictures of marines engaged in battle thereafter were simply leftist propaganda. Just tell them “Don’t worry”.
I think Star Was has something here – if they follow form, the Bush Administration is going to trump up the June 30 pullout and present it to the public as a “We’re bringing the troops home from Iraq!” party. Lots of footage of happy returning soldiers, patriotic speeches, maybe Bush in front of a banner reading “Mission Accomplished.”
Then as the months go by, the news comes out: two American soldiers killed in Iraq… three more American soldiers killed in Iraq … another American soldier killed in Iraq… an Apache helicopter shot down, seven American servicemen killed… it won’t be a surprise to the news-savvy folks out there, but even the folks who don’t follow the new religiously are not going to brush this off.
About the only way I can see the Administration trying to spin things is if the folks killed are “contractors” (mercenaries) – then they’ll present it as simply private security folks hired by Haliburton et al. But I don’t think that’s going to work, simply because the Administration can’t pull every serviceperson out of Iraq and replace 'em with hired guns…
I admit I was confused by it, too: it sounds as if the US is pulling out whenever it gets news coverage, but if you listen closely, you hear that handing over the country to Iraqis doesn’t equal not having a military occupation of the country.
The June 30 thing is a window-dressing farce. The USA will “transfer” power to a puppet government it has installed but it is all a sham. The USA will continue the ossupation, Iraqi military power remains in US hands and the USA retains ample political powers, including that of approving the Iraqi government. In other words: it is an empty gesture, nothing will change in fact. The USA does not trust its own puppets.
The Republicans haven’t completely taken over the media yet. “Americans killed in Iraq” is guaranteed ratings gold, and none of the major outlets will ignore it.
If nothing else, the foreign press will report it, and non-mainstream media sources (the internet, Air America Radio, the SDMB, etc.) will run with it.
I’ve been mulling over the possibility that the June 30th deadline might be biting th US in our collective asses right now. Assuming that the various faction leaders believe that the US was indeed pulling out/after June 30th, then from their point of view it is entirely to their benefit to “drive” us out by June 30th. If a faction leader, especially one at odds with the IGC, could claim with some perceived accuracy to have driven out the infidel occupiers, he could gain major political mojo, and be extremely hard to ignore. Of course, this requires aforementioned factions assuming that the US will pull out come hell or high water.
This leaves us in a bit of a bind, as we must be determined to avoid the appearance of a Mogadishu/Beiruit/Vietnam style US casualty driven bugout. Being perceived as a bully with a glass jaw is far worse than being perceived as a bully. So now we are stuck in a smackdown mode, which hurts our position with respect to the general Iraqi civilian populace, which feeds the claims of the opposition.
Because we cannot pull out until some minimal level of peace and order is restored (and maintain any shred of credibility whatsoever) and the leaders of the guerillas right now have no reason to stop fighting, we are stuck in a pissing contest far worse than the one we were in that led up to the damn invasion in the first place.
I don’t see what’s so difficult about this. I can understand why Bush won’t do it, of course, but it’s not so hard.
All that’s required is an apology from Bush to the Iraqi people about the way things have been conducted so far, and a hand-over to the UN as peacekeepers until the elections.
Upside: Achieves Bush’s stated aims of removing the WMD threat, removing Saddam, and liberating the people of Iraq.
The problem is that we don’t want to feed the perception that a few dead Americans will make the US cave. That path led to 9/11. So we have to establish some figleaf of victory before we can even contemplate any other action, however rational.
And I am not sure that a well worded non-confession confession/non-apology apology would make Bush’s image worse among anyone except the party faithful. Heck, since the middle of 2002 I 've felt Bush should use some of the humility in foreign policy he preached about in his campaign.
The administration has already taken care of this, from Reuters
Actually, I had always thought that this was the most likely scenario. We set a deadline, it becomes unreachable, but irreversible because of political pressure, so the only solution is an unpopular puppet government which “invites” us to stay for protection. Bush gets to declare a mission accomplished, and not enough people realize what they’ve been snowed.
Our problem, our real problem with the June 30 deadline, will be hanging in there for that long. We’re in trouble over there, guys. Even the Iraqi Governing Council is distancing themselves from us. In Collounsbury’s apt phrase, “One’s pimpdom is over when your own whores don’t want to be seen with you.” We’re losing control of the roads between Baghdad and the border. We’ve lost control of a number of towns, and of significant sectors of Baghdad. If we stay, we may not be that far from the day they have to helicopter our people out of the Green Zone.
This past week, we’ve made war on the Iraqi people, and there’s no winning of that war.
“Americans killed in Iraq” is guaranteed ratings gold, and none of the major outlets will ignore it.