Justify Wins the Triple Crown

[DKW]

The only reason I paid any attention to American Pharaoh in the first place was that not only had it been so long since the last Triple Crown winner, but so many…SO, SO, SO DAMN MANY…horses won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness stakes, often in very dominating fashion, but always, always found a way to not close the deal.

Once more, with feeling, It’s Not Rocket Surgery!'s excellent 2014 rundown of all the heartbreaking near-misses (and of course add California Chrome’s 4th that year).

@It_s_Not_Rocket_Surgery

From memory (not that tough a task, I was present for most of these):
1979 - Spectacular Bid, 3rd - He got a safety pin caught in his hoof the morning of the Belmont, plus his jockey moved him to challenge a hopeless longshot early. Probably the best horse to win the first two and lose the Belmont; he won all 9 races the following year and set several track records in doing so.
1981 - Pleasant Colony, 3rd - Improved a ton in the race before the Derby and appeared to be knocked out by the 3 huge efforts going into the Belmont.
1987 - Alysheba, 4th - Uncharacteristically showed speed and tired; the winner had finished a close 2nd in the first two legs so wasn’t a surprise; another horse who was dominant the next year.
1989 - Sunday Silence, 2nd - Had equally-talented archrival, Easy Goer, who loved racing at Belmont and ran the second-fastest Belmont ever that day. Had either of these two horses not had to face each other, they probably would have both won Triple Crowns.
1997- Silver Charm, 2nd - Happened to win the first two legs against a couple of closely matched rivals, and just got run down late by one of them here.
1998 - Real Quiet, 2nd - Just got beaten a nose by equally-talented rival who had finished second in the first two legs after opening up a lead coming out of the turn. By the way, if California Chrome loses tomorrow, I think this is the most likely scenario.
1999 - Charismatic, 3rd - Like Pleasant Colony, improved a ton 1 race before the Derby, and was overused in his 3 straight big efforts. Broke a leg very late in the race; finished anyway but was saved when his jockey jumped off just past the finish.
2002 - War Emblem, 8th? - Pure frontrunner who stumbled out of the gate and was immediately taken out of his game. There are quite a few horses with a front-running running style who quit when unable to reach the lead.
2003 - Funny Cide, 3rd - Was too keen for the race; had a very fast workout that week and tried to lead all the way; beaten by talented rivals, including the Derby favorite who had finished 2nd in that race.
2004 - Smarty Jones, 2nd - Beaten by race tactics. Hounded by two rivals in the early portions of the race and ran way too fast in the middle part of the race as a result; still opened a lead coming out of the turn but couldn’t hold off a fresh challenger who had stayed out of the early fray.
2008 - Big Brown, eased out of the race - Who knows? Take your pick of a) loosened a shoe on the first turn; b) went nuts in the “detention barn” where stakes horses must wait during the day while they are watched; or c) did not receive his monthly dose of (then-legal) steroids for the first time.
2012 - I’ll Have Another, scratched - Scratched the day before the Belmont (and retired) with a flareup of a chronic leg injury.

THIRTEEN TIMES. THIRTEEN GODDAM TIMES. It was unbelievable. This was similar to the “curses” you hear bandied about every so often. You keep thinking, it has to end sometime. It’s ridiculous that it lasted that long. Okay, this will be the one. All right, this one. How about this one? This one? Please??? Pretty pretty please??? Like a gambler who keeps betting on “Pass” and sees missout after missout after missout after missout, over and over and over, giving the law of averages a pounding, then a machinegunning, all the way up to total nuclear war, and it keeps going from there (or vice-versa; that’s what that “standoff” thing is for :D), all the while growing ever more exasperated, more panicked, more hysterical, “C’MON, THIS CAN’T LAST FOREVER!! IT CAN’T!! IT CAN’T!!”

And then…it happened. Just like that. Guess the 85,693rd time was the charm after all. You can relax, world! Susan Lucci got her Emmy! Chinese Democracy got released! So did Duke Nukem Forever! A black man got elected President! The torment is over! We can finally get along with our lives now.

And then, a little while after…three years, to be exact…it happens again.

Remember when the Boston Red Sox, after rolling what seemed like several fricking million 1s in a row, finally, finally got that blessed 2 and won the World Series in 2004? It was monumental. The Curse has existed for 85 years. It had become one of the fundamental laws of nature. It was as inviolable as the universe itself. And just like that, it was over (and after most ridiculous reverse sweep I’ve seen in my life). Baseball would never, ever be the same again. The 2004 World Series…hell, the entire playoffs (seriously, what was up with that reverse sweep?)…was a game-changer. A world-changer.

And then, a little while after…three years, to be exact…it happened again.

And everyone was like…wait a minute, it really was just a weirdo coincidence? No vengeful god, no spiteful universe, no eldritch horror machinations? 85-year unlucky streaks just happen sometimes? And guess what? They do.

And that’s exactly where I am with Justify. Why the horrible drought? Why 13 stalwarts cruelly cut down one by one? No reason. It just happened.

Not to take anything from the fact that it was a spectacular achievement, for reasons ChickenLegs already mentioned.