Oh, my fault. I saw the “subscribe to the WP” thing and simply assumed. Sorry! I’ll look more closely next time.
I can see Trump wanting them off. If he talkd over her, he looks like a bully to some people, especially if she puts him in his place when he tries. But if he doesn’t talk over her, he looks weak to other people, who want to see him “dominate”. Muted mics make the issue moot.
Also mute.
I can see his handlers wanting them off–but I don’t think Trump has ever fretted about whether he comes across as a bully.
Try saying that three times fast.
I would not be surprised if Harris is hoping to get a chance to do her “I am speaking now.” thing, and show, not tell, how she stands up to bullies and is strong. Yes those of us her follow political news have heard you do it before, including this cycle shutting down heckling at a rally, but it wouldn’t be a rerun to many tuning in for the first time.
Also the more “the show” is his bad behavior and her standing up to it, the less time she has to spend getting pinned down on policy specifics (any specifics are something for some segment to object to; better to be less than more specific with policies if you can).
Still I personally would prefer the muted mics format.
Orange is the new Yellow.
Right, the debate will be won or lost based on behavior, not policies. This is 90% Harris wanting Trump to constantly interrupt while she looks presidential, and 10% Harris throwing in a couple zingers while he’s speaking in hopes of promoting a meltdown. I’m sure it’s his campaign complaining about it, not Trump himself.
If he does back out, it’s certainly going to make him look afraid to face her.
(Because it’ll be true.)
Seems to me that there’s a pretty strong attack line for the Harris campaign there, if he ducks the debate.
Angus Reid Global August 19-23 & ActiVote August 15-23 polls both put {\color{blue}\mathbf{Harris}} +5%
.
With the added benefit of being able for her team to bait him by calling him chicken and watch him respond like the schoolyard bully that he is.
Polls that are in the field after Labor Day. Traditionally Labor Day is when most voters actually start to pay attention to the race, and it’ll be distant enough from the absolute cavalcade of events over the last month for things to settle into where voters actually stand.
This makes the most sense to me.
Me, too. Plus, at this point I don’t question any strategic or tactical decision they make. They’re batting 1.000 so far.
To be clear, I don’t think I’m better at politicking than they are. I question this move in the sense of, “What’s going on here?” rather than “They’re doing dumb things.”
Also, to quote Arrival, it’s a non-zero sum game. Trump doesn’t know what those are and can’t fathom someone agreeing to something that gives him the same advantage Harris would be getting (because really, who is going to be the one yelling into the mic when it isn’t their turn?). So as far as Trump is concerned, this has to be some attempt at cheating.
Good to know…but I am pretty much ignoring all national polls, because the national vote doesn’t determine the winner in the US (I know you know this, but not everyone seems to get it).
Ten million more Californians and New Yorkers voting for Harris/Walz doesn’t interest me in the slightest.
Two comments:
First the necessary caution of Angus Reid Global being RV not LVs.
Second, last ActiVote report had some here puzzled and speculating about their having Trump ahead in suburban voters 56 to 44, and 50/50 for those with college degrees plus.
This time it is back to the more expected Harris 52 to 48 for suburban, and 59 to 41 for college degree plus.
Just a point to remember caution when analyzing individual poll subgoups where the n can get small and the noise loud.
FWIW on the ABC 538 site PA is listed as up 1.2% for popular vote (yes toss up range) and the up 3.8% national. I don’t think it is too crazy to use that 2.6% difference as a current stand in estimate for the electoral college GOP advantage correction factor when reading individual national polls. So still just a single poll, and not swing state specific, but the ActiVote Harris ahead 5.2 poll would be consistent with PA Harris ahead by 2.6. To be confirmed with aggregated swing state specific polling of course. And that would be a bit of a disappointing convention bump honestly.
Poll won’t reflect the bump yet, the time period is too early overall.
Later in the week we’ll probably see polls that reflect the bump.
Reporting from CBS suggests not so much a game of three-dimensional chess as an adventure of Spy vs. Spy.
- Harris wants open mics so she can fact-check Trump in real time.
- Trump wants open mics because he’s Trump.
- The story implies that Trump never exactly agreed to a mute button in the first place, and his advisors snuck it in collaborating with Biden’s people. Above all, his handlers don’t want it becoming an issue this close to the debate.
- By agreeing with Trump, Harris can keep him either off-balance or overconfident (depending how Trump feels at any given moment - either one works to her advantage.)
Just typing this makes my head hurt.