Like, imagine she keeps insisting on shutting off the microphones when someone is trying to make a point, and he keeps saying he’ll debate her if the microphones stay on and they can each stand up for themselves — how does that play, even before the debate happens? Yeah, there’s a way to sell that for Harris, but Trump could wind up scoring points; it probably wouldn’t resonate all that much, but who the hell knows? Maybe it would.
But if he says he wants the microphones on throughout, and she — says that she likes the idea of having the microphones on throughout? It’s a nothingberder. It’s literally taking ‘yes’ for an answer. There’s nothing to even hypothetically resonate.
He’s gonna gishgallop “immigration” policy from the opening statements to the closing ones.
Sadly and stupidly, harsh immigration policies have begun to resonate with a majority of the electorate. It’s trump’s best issue right now and Veep had better be prepared with sensible policies of her own.
She has a ready made solution: the bipartisan bill which was killed in the senate on Trump’s say so.
She’ll hammer him on the fact that the bill would have increased border security and improved the processing of migrants, but Trump was so selfish that he forced Republicans to reject it merely so Biden wouldn’t get a win.
Harris has vowed to sign a re-authorized bill if she’s re-elected.
She won’t need to get deep into specifics; the mere fact that she can say “we had a solution; which both democrats and republicans favored. But you killed it, Mr Trump” is rebuttal enough.
Majority? I doi not think so unless it is a slim one.
Yes, most Americans agree there is a problem at the border- but to me the problem is the GOPs racist policies are keeping these nice workers out.
and see here- A 60% majority of Americans say that increasing the number of immigration judges and staff in order to make decisions on asylum more quickly would make the situation better
and especially here-
Nearly as many (56%) say creating more opportunities for people to legally immigrate to the U.S. would make the situation better.
See- both sides agree there is a problem, but each side sees a different problem.
The Dems and most Americans see the real problem as- creating more opportunities for people to legally immigrate to the U.S. would make the situation better.
So no, Most Americans do not want harsh policies at the border.
The number of Americans who say the country will become “more safe” if Trump is elected (41%) is 9 points higher than the number who say the same about Harris (32%) — though four in 10 say the country will become less safe under either candidate. Biden’s dismal job approval rating — 39% approve, 55% disapprove — is still hurting rather than helping his vice president. A full 39% of Americans say the “cost of living” is the most important issue when thinking about next year’s election — the next closest is “democracy” at 17% — and a plurality think Trump (45%) would do a better job handling affordability than Harris (40%). A similar plurality — 43% to 37% — believe Trump would do better than Harris on crime. While Harris has an 18-point advantage over Trump on abortion — an issue that featured prominently at the DNC — just 6% of Americans say it’s their most important issue.
This is often a problem with polling questions. See, for instance, the ought-to-be-infamous “do you think the country’s headed in the wrong direction?”
The reality is that the state of the economy is how it affects me. The average voter is not really interested in macro-economics, market trends or other issues of that nature, they are interested in what is in front of them. This is not clearly reflected in any stats or indexes, other than surveys that aggregate how individuals feels, FWIW. The most important factor here, though, is not so much how the situation is now, but how the situation looks like it is progressing.
It has always baffled me that voters think the Republicans do a better job with economics. The Republicans seem to have a really good bullshit machine working there. For the boots on the ground voter, I cannot imagine how Republican policy would be a positive for them, but apparently the con has been effective.
Then, of course, we have some sort of shift that was brought on by the epidemic. People are no longer happy with how things have been and want their lives to suck less. From my perspective, I cannot see how Republicans would make their lives suck less, but on the other hand, I cannot see Democratic policy offering much there either. And Ms Harris is an establishment candidate, which does not help her with the dissatisfied voters.
Re: the debate, has anyone, either Democratic or Republican, ever looked right at Trump during a debate and say, calmly, “You’re lying”? I know, I know, he’d just shoot back, “No, you’re the liar!” But I wonder if anyone in his life has ever told him that to his face, and what his reaction would be.
Problem with that idea is that we have numerous polls where people say they themselves are doing well, but still think the economy as a whole is doing poorly.
Exactly; in many cases it’s not how the economy is actually affecting the voter. Because if they keep hearing that the economy is bad despite doing pretty well themselves, they think (A) that they want to elect someone who will make it better because it’s the right thing to do, and more importantly (B) eventually the poor economy they keep hearing about is going to affect them.
While people who don’t have much and are suffering are motivated to vote, I suspect that people who do have things but are scared of losing what they have are even more motivated.
The average voter does not understand job growth- only if he has a job or not, or GDP increases, or or the stock market. He thinks he understand high prices at the grocery store- but doesnt understand these are more the result of supply chain or price gouging. One chain has an increase in profits of neary 5%.
They want someone to blame, so they buy the GOPs lies.
But it is getting better-
But despite his positive outlook, more than one-third of Americans don’t agree. According to polling conducted exclusively for Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 46 percent of Americans believe the economy is in a worse state than in January 2021, when Trump left the White House, compared to 33 percent who said it has improved. Fifteen percent of those 1,500 eligible voters surveyed on August 15 said that, in their eyes, the economy remains the same, while 6 percent said they didn’t know… The poll also found a significant partisan skew in beliefs about the economy, with 68 percent of those who said they will vote for Trump in the 2024 presidential election saying the economy is worse than it was in 2021, while only 25 percent of those planning to vote for Biden’s replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris, think the same…
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in June 2024, personal income for Americans rose by $50.4 billion, or 0.2 percent on a monthly basis. Disposable personal income (DPI), which is personal income minus personal current taxes, went up by $37.7 billion, also reflecting a 0.2 percent increase. Personal outlays, which include personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments and personal current transfer payments, grew by $59.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, while consumer spending increased by $57.6 billion, or 0.3 percent.
So, note mostly only the MAGA sheep are buying the Big Lie now. Only 25% of Dem voters think the economy is not so good.
Can it really be that lots of voters have never heard that Trump wants harsh policies? No.
If someone says that they want less harsh policies, and also thinks Trump is good on that border, I think they are being more honest about Trump than they are about how liberal they are on immigration.
A not-great-for-Harris national poll from YouGov/Economist (highly regarded outfit) was just released, showing Harris only up 2% (47 to 45). I know I keep saying national polls don’t really matter, and they don’t – but this does seem to confirm that the Democrat “convention bump” is very small. We seem to have reached the plateau I warned about almost three weeks ago. We may have a little post-debate bump in a couple weeks, but don’t count on it, no matter how well Harris does (and how poorly Trump does). The Dem convention was just about perfect, and yet it moved too few voters into the Harris/Walz camp.*
Also…according to RealClearPolitics, it’s been nine days since we’ve seen a new Pennsylvania poll by anyone, and twelve days since the last Pennsylvania poll by a respectable outfit (Emerson) – and that showed a tie (actually +1 Trump if there’s no Kennedy, as now there is not).
*Unless several polls (in the next couple days) show this YouGov/Economist one to be an unrepresentative outlier. This is always a possibility, no matter how well a poll is conducted, and that’s why you never just pay attention to a single poll. But don’t get your hopes up – it’s just as possible that it’s an outlier in the other direction (unlikely, but possible).