Me too. I knew it was familiar, but something was off about it. I couldn’t think where I’d seen something similar. When the author’s name was mentioned the original metaphor came to me. So I guess I almost got it but no cigar.
This is why I mispronounce it sometimes. I get it right about half the time. Of course, I’m not running for president or on TV talking about politics.
For my first glance at a robust sample of post-debate polling, I said I’d check in Wednesday (as part of my new, healthier “only twice a week at most” routine). Well, here we are, and the 538 model has Harris winning 62% of their runs. That’s good – right on the track I’d predicted a while ago – but not great. She has plateaued in Michigan (still favored to win, but it’s far from a sure thing) and in North Carolina (dead even, at best). Wisconsin is looking better, and so is Nevada (but Nevada needs a new poll). Pennsylvania? We’re getting mixed messages – definitely looking forward to a new high-quality poll or two there.
Nationally, I was hoping for a more definitive 3.5% average popular vote lead for Harris by about now (obviously means nothing directly, but indirectly that implies a reasonably good chance at overcoming the D electoral college disadvantage) – but, depending at how you weigh polls (recency, etc.), it seems we’ve only crept up to between 2.5% and 3%.
Hopefully, by the time I check in next (over the coming weekend), we’ll have either a new Emerson poll (national and/or PA), or a new Times/Siena poll (national and/or PA). Based on their usual frequency, I’d expect one or the other to happen rather soon, though probably not quite that soon.
I remember hearing almost this exact prediction in October 2016. Talk about nightmare fuel.
I think the problem is only the best polls for Harris are getting mentioned in this thread, which leaves a pretty skewed image of where the race is out. There was a Harris +3 thread for Penn which is great, but also a recent Trump +2. There are some Harris up 5 or 6 nationally, but also some Harris plus 3, which is basically a toss given the electrical college skewing, and even a Trump +3. You can’t really just say Harris did well in one Iowa or Florida poll (though still losing by 4ish in the good polls) and say they are suddenly tossups. Nate Silver still has Harris as an underdog, though she is getting closer to 50/50. 538 is higher on Harris,but not comfortably so (This isn’t for this thread, but I think they have done some very questionable things that make me discount their numbers).
Here’s pretty much all the national general-election polls in reverse chronological order. Scroll down and press [Show more polls] to lengthen the timeline. I think the numbers shown – and especially the movement in the numbers shown – speak for themselves. Others’ mileage may vary.
Regarding Pennsylvania – buy it or don’t:
I will note there have also been some post-debate polls in the battleground from Republican-aligned polling firms like Insider Advantage, Quantas and Trafalgar. Here at Hopium we do not “toss them into the averages” given what happened with the fake red polling in 2022, we take them out and dismiss them. In recent weeks we’ve seen an uptick in the tempo of polling from what I am calling these “red wave pollsters” - American Greatness, co/efficient, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Trafalgar, Wick - whose sole purpose appears to be to produce polls in the states 2-4 points to the right of the public independent polls to make the election look more Republican and favorable to Trump. That we’ve seen soon so much of this polling since the debate - one of these polls now in each of AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI and 3 (!!!) in NC - suggests the Rs are worried about what happened at the debate, and are now working furiously to stem the damage and ensure their strong man candidate doesn’t have to confront the reality that the election may be slipping away from him.
I agree there has been some movement, but I think people in this thread of have a habit of taking the best Harris poll and assuming its the new normal. Looking over those 538 number Harris plus 4 (which means about a 1 or 2 point advantage in the EC) is probably a better indication of where things are at than Harris + 6. For Pennsylvania just using the pollsters 538 accepts, it looks like a dead heat (Though quinnipiac just released very nice numbers not added yet)
I think the numbers in the battleground states – and especially PA and NC – are occluded right now due to the factors Simon Rosenberg pointed out (in my previous post).
I had to search that; Wikipedia doesn’t give a pronunciation of his nickname but your mentioning him implies he pronounced it differently than Harris pronounces it.
And as @LoneRhino says, some do have that person in their memory and that does affect their own pronunciation.
Yeah, many were hoping Harris would win Florida in 2016. But not Texas.
My question is this: anyone who is truly undecided, who are their choices? Surely everyone that would support Trump has already chosen him (not that RFKJr is out). So are the undecideds going to be split among Harris, Stein and Oliver?
No. Undecideds are mostly voting or not bothering.
Most of the undecideds have been listening to Kremlin propaganda “both sides are the same, so why bother?”
The day before the election I remember friends gloating that HRC might win Texas. Obviously delusional in retrospect but it didn’t seem so at the time.
I suspect this year, if Harris wins, trump will win Texas by such a small margin, they wont be able to call it for a while.
I suspect most undecided they don’t hear the Kremlin, or Harris, or Trump much. They just don’t pay attention to politics.
Oh yes, they do- they just dont know it. The kremlin puts out funny and catchy memes, which are shared on FB, etc.
You don’t need to go back to 2016 to find unfounded Democratic faith that Florida, Texas and other red states were in play. At this point in the 2020 cycle Biden was polling ahead in Florida and only a couple points behind in Texas. And that he was crushing it the blue wall states.
Luckily, Biden didn’t let it go to his head and dump tens of millions of dollars into making a play in reach states. He kept his focus on the states that gave him the clearest road to an EV majority, and it’s good thing he did given how razor thin the margin ended up being in some of them.
Texas hasnt voted for a Dem candidate for Prez since 1976 iirc. The best Harris can hope for is to make Texas embassingly close for trump.
Texas turning Blue is forever one to three election cycles away. A political flying car.