There are a dozen other polls, many from well-graded outfits, that show a much rosier picture for Harris, just in the last 24 hours. Don’t freak out over a single poll, or even a single set, day, or week of polls.
For Pete’s sake, it’s ONE POLL.
Consider this:
The day after the debate, Nate Silver had Trump ahead by 2.4% in AZ, GA and PA (collectively), the three worst swing states for Harris.
Four days later, Trump was only up by 2% in those states. Now today, he’s only up by 0.8% in those states. In eight days, the Trumpiest of the six swing states have swung 1.6% toward Harris. His lead in those states has shrunk by two thirds in slightly over a week.
Every indication is that everything is moving in her direction where it matters.
Indeed Silver has Harris up to winning in 49% of the runs up from a low of 35% the day before the debate.
Cherry picking either direction? That way lies madness.
Aggregate and temper the good. And the bad. It will keep us from three faced die range for a bit at least. No more or less than that.
FWIW polls do belong in this thread but we seem to be repeating the same play by play in several threads. Is there any better way?
We could almost use a federal law mandating that early votes get sorted in advance. Isn’t one of the issues that some Republicans don’t allow votes to be pre-sorted in order to take more time and give the false appearance of fraud?
I’m pretty sure any federal law like that would be overturned pretty quickly. The Constitution leaves election law to each state legislature so this likely wouldn’t be possible.
Another rough analogy is with the Teamsters’ Union. The Union leadership declined to endorse the D candidate (this is unusual), even though her positions align better with the union’s interests, merely because an apparent majority of union members like Trump. (Source: NPR news today).
And why do they like Trump? Because Trump hates the same people they hate. Harris won’t “hurt the people she’s suppose to be hurting.”
I saw this and a thought occurred to me: I wonder how Ms Harris is doing in the latest Harris poll. However, it appears that Harris is avoiding the political arena, focusing more on marketing-related polling.
hidden as ignore modnote a few posts up.
FWIW, I pronounced it the way it was pronounced in The Matrix: Revolutions until she became a large enough player that her name was a topic of discussion. Of course, I found it fairly easy to correct my pronunciation once I chose to.
I’ll add to those commending this post. Yes, “I don’t know enough about her” is 100% a fake excuse, given by those who will either vote for Trump or not vote at all, because they’re ‘okay’ with Trump getting in again.
And yes, the number of people who won’t tell pollsters that they support Trump even though they do, is huge. There is no such phenomenon on the Democratic side. So we must not relax because Harris/Walz are a few percentage points ahead in polls–there’s not only the Electoral College GOP advantage to be overcome, there’s the ‘will vote for Trump but won’t admit it to pollsters’ contingent.
@outlierrn --I won’t reply (due to moderation that appears a ways up in this thread) other than to say that I’m sure you’re not alone.
Sorry, my bad, skipped forward and missed the note.
Here’s a couple of things, gleaned from Jeff Tiedrich’s daily email commentary blast. Yes, yes, I know he’s rabidly partisan, so take it for what it’s worth, but two things:
- Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, who in 2020 correctly predicted all but one (Georgia) of the states Biden would win, is predicting a big win for Harris, based on his use of the betting markets rather than the polls.
Yep, you’re absolutely right, this seems like a pipe dream and I continue to worry. Still, if the guy’s right…
- And to cheer y’all up, here’s a video of Walz being Walz. How many other politicians can you think of who’d turn their backs to the camera to talk to a voter? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xOwF8kqE2Y
ETA: Here’s a hyperlink to the Thomas Miller story Tiedrich took his stuff from, which is on Alternet. I don’t have a subscription, so i couldn’t see it past the headline.
Hoping the revelations that NC Republican governor candidate visited porn sites and commented about being Black Hitler, etc. will sink him there and possibly drag down Trump as well. If Harris wins NC, it would be a big deal.
Yep. Guarded optimism is the byword here.
He is just so likable.
They are neck and neck with trump ahead by a nose.
I don’t see that it’s been mentioned that the Fed finally lowered interest rates for the first time since the pandemic began. I’d anticipate that a drop by a half point will spur more buying activity, so the economy should be on an upswing as we get to November.
As much as people try to demonize the economy, it is on solid footing right now.
That only helps Harris, which is why Republicans are so upset.
Gasoline prices are dropping, and are expected to continue to drop.
Drivers have enjoyed a sharp decline in gasoline prices over recent weeks – and the good times are expected to continue.
Gas prices have plummeted about 13% from a 2024 peak in April, which amounts to a decline of nearly 50 cents per gallon, according to AAA data shared with ABC News.
I’m sure that - and other positive economic news - is merely in anticipation of all the greatness we are going to experience when our great leader is re-elected. 
The most prominent conservative among my Facebook “friends” posted a couple of days ago that if you’re trying to buy a house, an interest rate cut is the last thing you want.
No, I don’t understand the logic, either.
I figured he’d have this response. Who cares if it’s good for the economy and most Americans? It’s bad for meeee!