Karl Rove's Election Prediction Map

[Chronos]

Quoth Gangster Octopus:

What’s interesting about the money situation is how much of Obama’s money comes from small donations versus how much Romney has gotten form those who have already maxed out their $2500. As this shows, Obama has 10 times as much money on hand and has gotten only 19% from big time donors as opposed to Romney’s 57%. It seems to me that Obama will have a much easier time continuing to raise money as thousands of folks kick in $10 and $50 donations a shot. The Obama team has this down to a science. Of course there is the SuperPAC money, which could be the equalizer, but my guess is Obama will have a significant money advantage throughout the campaign.

The other thing about getting lots of small donations is that it means that Obama has a lot of support among the general population, which is ultimately what wins elections. Yeah, the big money interests have influence, but that’s via convincing the general population to vote their way.

[That_Don_Guy]

Didn’t 2004 teach us anything about early polls? You can skew a state by throwing enough money into it. I am pretty much convinced that the reason Bush won Ohio when election day polls showed him behind is that the Republicans threw money into it (mainly by conceding the California Senate race that year - they wouldn’t even show a free ad when given the opportunity), thus bringing out unexpected support.

(Wait a minute…Man of the Year…“Dynacorp”…Diebold…Ohio…what else have they been hiding from us?)

[Little_Nemo]

@Gangster_Octopus

Obama has tons more money and I also think he has tons more campaigning skill and likability that Romney.

Obama has another huge advantage - he’s already President. In the last twenty elections where an incumbent was running, the incumbent was re-elected fifteen times.

[BrainGlutton]

@appleciders

Remember, McCain is from Arizona. That had something to do with the fact that McCain won Arizona so handily (53% to 45%). But most of Arizona’s neighbors went blue (NM, CO, NV, CA), and continuing increase in the voting Latino population would suggest that Arizona is a plausible state for an Obama pickup if Obama’s doing well in general.

Especially now.

[appleciders]

@BrainGlutton

Especially now.

Maybe. That could fire up either the Hispanic population or the Minutemen who support the sheriff.

[BrainGlutton]

@appleciders

Maybe. That could fire up either the Hispanic population or the Minutemen who support the sheriff.

Both, is my guess. We’ll see.

[bup]

The current article on the front page of the OP’s link shows Rove himself explaining the map away, and points out that nationally the race is very tight.

[BigAppleBucky]

@bup

The current article on the front page of the OP’s link shows Rove himself explaining the map away, and points out that nationally the race is very tight.

We pretty much know it will be within 55-45 unless something drastic happens.

Above, I was suggesting Rove had wanted to make the polling data look less favorably to Romney, not more, in order to gain more billionaire funding. I may be incorrect about that, but I do suspect him of playing fast and loose with the truth on all occasions.

Obama may have cost himself the election with his freedom of marriage stand. It probably won’t cost him a large number of popular votes, but may very well turn some swing states against him.

[Little_Nemo]

@BigAppleBucky

Above, I was suggesting Rove had wanted to make the polling data look less favorably to Romney, not more, in order to gain more billionaire funding. I may be incorrect about that, but I do suspect him of playing fast and loose with the truth on all occasions.

But political money doesn’t work like that. Most donors put building up favors ahead of influencing the outcome of the election. They might ideologically prefer Romney over Obama but that will have a minimal effect on where they put their money. That’s a business decision and it makes more sense to donate money to the guy who’s winning.

[Exapno_Mapcase]

@BigAppleBucky

We pretty much know it will be within 55-45 unless something drastic happens.

That’s the popular vote, which is independent of an electoral vote count. Obama in fact got 68% of the electoral vote in 2008. That’s the only number that counts.

[Exapno_Mapcase]

Map update.

Obama 204 safe, 76 lean
Romney 106 safe, 55 lean
Toss-up 97

While Romney would have to win every toss-up state and pick off a leaner from Obama to win, the trend is toward Romney.

Because of the last two weeks of new polls, Romney’s EC vote total increased by 16 EC votes to 106 as Georgia’s swung from “lean Romney” to “safe Romney.” Obama’s EC vote total fell to 204 as Oregon moved from “safe Obama” to “lean Obama,” and Wisconsin shifted from “safe Obama” to "toss-up” as a new poll showing state tied changed its 30-day average.

The only positive change in a state’s status for Obama was New Hampshire, which went from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

While their status was unchanged, Romney also gained strength in these states:

Toss-Up: North Carolina (swing of 6 points to +3%)

Lean Romney: Tennessee (pickup of 2 points to +7%)

Safe Romney: Oklahoma (now 35% lead)

Safe Obama: Maine (Romney pickup of 8 points), New York (pickup of 3 points), and New Jersey (pickup of 1 point)

Obama made these gains without changing the status of these states:

Safe Obama: Minnesota (Obama pickup of 3 points) and Washington State (pickup of 2 points)

Six states now (76 EC votes) “lean Obama;” five states (55 EC votes) “lean Romney;” and seven (97 EC votes) are “toss-ups.”

Look for a further shift in North Carolina towards Romney as new polls are released. Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky, South Dakota and Montana are also likely to be reclassified as solid Romney when (and if) new polling is done in these states.

This is an accurate reflection of the latest polls, from what I’ve read. With Romney now the undisputed challenger, his numbers have been rising across the board and he has narrowed earlier Obama leads, although without passing him in the swing states.

[New_Deal_Democrat]

@bup

You never want to pitch your side as a shoe-in. It’s better to be the underdog.

The Republican base does not seem enthusiastic about Romney. If they think he is likely to lose they may devote their efforts to local elections.

[appleciders]

@Karl Rove

Obama’s EC vote total fell to 204 as Oregon moved from “safe Obama” to “lean Obama,”

Hah. Hah. Hahahahaa… Oregon is even safer than Pennsylvania. We get ignored by both parties, and for good reason.

[BrainGlutton]

@appleciders

Hah. Hah. Hahahahaa… Oregon is even safer than Pennsylvania. We get ignored by both parties, and for good reason.

That would not happen if the EC were abolished. But that’s a GD topic, I suppose.

[Lantern]

RCPhas something similar to Rove’s prediction map except that it’s up to date and has links to the relevant polls.

Rove’s numbers seem flattering to Obama. For example it’s clear that Colorodais a toss-up state. The latest Marist poll has Obama up by one point. The two before that have Obama up by 4 and a tie. There is a PPP poll with an Obama lead of 13 but it was in the first week of April which would be before the 30 day moving average as of May 22 mentioned on the Rove website. So I am not sure how he gets an Obama lead of 6 even if the Marist poll is after his deadline.

I think the RCP breakdown gives a more accurate picture of the race. Adding the likely and leaning, Obama has 237, Romney has 170 and the tossups have 131: a clear advantage for Obama. However if things go well for Romney it’s possible he could win most of the tossups which are states where Obama has leads of only a few points on average. A major national shift which boosts Romney by 3-4 points could put him over the top in 8 or 9 of those states. The economy is the obvious issue which could trigger that kind of shift especially if there is fresh Euro turmoil after the new Greek elections.