The three states mentioned above all have gubinatorial elections this year.
My challenge to the board is: Who do you think will win?
My comments:
Louisiana: There are a large number of Reps and Dems running. The Reps include fromer Gov. Treen, Hunt Downer (ex-Speaker of the State House), Public Service Commissioner Jay Blossman, and State Senate President John Hainkel. The Dems include Richard Ieyoub, the State Attorney General, Kathleen Blanco, the Lt. Governor, and John Kennedy, the State Treasurer.
My expectation: Run-off between Blanco and Ieyoub, with Blossman, Hainkel, and Kennedy having a chance of displacing one of the above.
Mississippi:
Barbour will be a strong candidate against Musgrove. He may beat ol’ Ronnie.
Maybe. Barbour does have a problem, though, in the fact that he hasn’t run for office in 20 years. I’m expecting him to win, but there’s still a strong chance that Musgrove can pull it off.
I’ll tackle the Kentucky gubernatorial election. On the Democratic side are Attorney General A.B. Chandler III, Speaker of the House Jody Richards, and multi-millionaire businessman Bruce Lunsford. On the Republican side are Congressman Ernie Fletcher, State Representative Steve Nunn, and Jefferson County Judge Executive Rebecca Jackson.
Chandler and Fletcher are their respective parties’ front-runners. From what I have observed, Ben Chandler has done an excellent job of providing leadership where there has been a real void. He has done a fine job of distancing himself from a governor who has become very unpopular since last year’s sex scandal. He has also been an activist AG. He has worked very hard for the elderly and in the area of consumer protection. Kentuckians have him to thank for pushing a “no call” telemarketing bill through the state legislature. Chandler has also done an excellent job of appealing to young people (he’s only 42 himself) and to the Democratic old guard (his grandfather was the legendary Happy Chandler, former Governor, US Senator, and baseball commissioner). Plus, Chandler’s running mate, Charlie Owen, is one of the wealthiest men in the state, and he’s willing to spend as much money as it takes for the Dems to win.
Ernie Fletcher is a very strong Republican candidate. He’s Senator Mitch McConnell’s chosen candidate, and his running mate, Hunter Bates, is McConnell’s former chief of staff. Bates, with his connections, has been able to raise plenty of money. If I’m not mistaken, Fletcher has raised a little more money than Chandler thus far. Fletcher by all acounts is a capable Congressman, but he has done little of note for his district in half a dozen years in Washington. The anti-McConnell faction has also armed themselves against him. Before the election began, McConnell swore to keep out of the Governor’s race. That promise quickly was broken. This has motivated McConnell haters, in particular former Governor Louie Nunn (the father of candidate Steve Nunn) to pledge to support the Democratic candidate if Fletcher wins the primary.
My prediction is that Chandler and Fletcher will have a knock-down drag out fight to the end in a race that will garner significant national attention. As of now I feel that McConnell has too many enemies to allow for a Fletcher victory. I think Ben Chandler will win a squeaker.
Musgrove may be in hot water now. The paper says he tried to get himself “invited” to apply for president of one of the colleges. I wish “wagon wheel” Blair would run again. 
As a lifelong Kentuckian now exiled in North Carolina, I don’t have a lot to add to ignatius’s commentary above, except that I think Fletcher will win it by a safe margin.
The tide is turning toward the Republicans in KY, as it along with much of the South finally lets go of its Dixiecrat roots. The 2000 Presidential election was never a contest for Bush in KY, while we were considered a swing state in the previous two elections. The Republicans have taken over the state legislature, and given Patton’s piccadilloes, there’s no reason to think the Dems will gain ground.
While Fletcher is a fellow UK College of Medicine grad, I can’t say I care much for him. His biggest efforts in Congress have been against meaningful health care reform; otherwise, he’s been a good toady for the Republicans. Mitch McConnell supports him, which IMO is reason enough to take to the streets against him.
I suspect that the Chandler name will not mean a whole lot, and it will mostly matter around Lexington (home of the Chandler Medical Center), which would go for the Democrat anyway. Fletcher’s side gig as a minister (Baptist, I think) will play big against Patton’s indiscretions. He’ll be able to wrap himself in God and the flag (riding the war wave) and win comfortably.
I’d like to think that McConnell has enough haters to affect the outcome, but you have to remember that 63% or so of voters in the last election somehow managed to vote for the rat bastard.
Dr. J
How about Louisiana? Does anyone have information on that state that would be of use to me?
Excellent post, Dr. J. I concur that the tide is turning toward Kentucky becoming a “Republican” state. The Republicans are in their third (I think) year as the majority party in the state Senate. The House is still 66-34 Democrat, but if Fletcher wins, many feel that the Republicans will win a majority by 2006.
I think Chandler’s name will both help him and hurt him. It might draw older voters toward him. It probably will. However, Happy Chandler had a lot of enemies. A lot of people, the managing partner of my law firm included, apparently believed that he was the “face man” for a fellow named Dan Talbott, who was pulling the strings behind the scenes for at least Happy’s first term as governor. Those who despised Talbott hated Chandler. Those who supported Bert Combs and Ned Breathitt were distasteful of him as well. Plenty of other people were turned off as the '60s turned into the '70s, and the '70s turned in to the '80s that Chandler never toned down his racist rhetoric. George Wallace from what I have read was successful in this regard. Happy never made that transformation.
I believe that this race will more or less turn into a referendum on McConnell. Although he’s been elected to several terms in the Senate, that is not to say that he’s popular. He promised to stay out of this race. He didn’t do so (for what it’s worth, I don’t know why anyone believed him when he said this in the first place). To put things in their simplest terms, having Fletcher as governor will be the same more or less as having McConnell as governor. This will be the ultimate question: will Kentuckians want their governor’s office run from Washington? I’m showing where I stand when I ask this question, but I think that’s the way things will play out.
I still think Chandler will win. FWIW, as a fellow graduate of the University of Kentucky College of Law, I hope he does. The McConnell alliance will ultimately hurt Fletcher. Furthermore, Chandler’s camp and Louie Nunn both have dirt on Fletcher, and Nunn in particular has shown his desire to use that dirt. This is going to be an interesting year.
Ignatius, do you know anything about Louisiana? After all, you’re named after the main character in “A Confederacy of Dunces”.
BTW, I’d like to thank the both of you for your information.
Hey Gov, here’s a tidbit for you:
The Green Party’s candidate for governor of Miss. is Sherman Lee Dillon, local musician. He is a class act, too!
I live in Louisiana, and a complete list of candidates is pretty difficult to find, because there are so many of them. But, maybe this link will help:
A local newspaper: www.acadiananow.com
Two popular local tv channels:
www.klfy.com
www.katc.com
These all have little pieces of info, but nothing overly comprehensive. I’ll let you know if I find out anything more.
damn…
let’s try that again:
Actually, Governor, I don’t know much about Louisiana. The minister of my church is from the Shreveport area and he talks about “back home” a lot, but I don’t know much about the state. I love “A Confederacy of Dunces”, though, hence the name. I’m glad I could be of assistance in regard to Kentucky politics.
Ignatius, there appears to be a major complication. Hunter Bates was removed from the ballot for residency reasons. How will this affect the race?
Governor, I think that Bates being removed from the ticket might actually help Fletcher’s chances. Perhaps I’m going against conventional wisdom on this, though. I don’t know how familiar you are with this ongoing saga (and I’ve not paid much close attention to it in about a week myself) but Bates, a high level Mitch McConnell staffer who lives in D.C., was disqualified from running for Lt. Governor through the efforts of another Republican candidate team, that being Steve Nunn-Bob Heleringer. Apparently under the KRS Bates is not a “resident” of Kentucky. To replace Bates, Fletcher chose Steve Pence, the U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Kentucky. I personally think Pence is a good choice. He doesn’t carry the “Mitch McConnell taint” that Bates did. He actually has a record as U.S. Attorney on which to run (unlike Bates). Fletcher has done a remarkably good job of weathering the storm so far.
He already picked a replacement? That wasn’t mentioned in my sources.
Strange. I half-expected that they would keep the Lt. Gov. spot blank until after the primary, and then pick either Nunn or Jackson to be the Lt. Gov. candidate.
Thanks for the information.
Under state law, specifically KRS 118.127, Fletcher had to pick a replacement.
Oh, and you’re welcome for the info, Gov.