This is kind of how I was seeing things shape up…and part of the reason I wanted to start this thread. I was not really seeing the Bush vs Kerry build up for the most part. Instead, I think you nailed it on the head (from my perspective anyway) that its really a Bush vs NotBush.
Thing is, if the majority on the NotBush side are seeing things this way, what will this do at the polls do you think in November? I see two likely scenerios.
One is, that voter turn out will be worse than it was even in 2000, with a lot of apathetic folks who don’t really like Bush much, but just can’t get enthused about NotBush either and so stay home and drink heavily. Result: Bush wins by a small margin due to more motivation of his faithful followers (i.e. voting for a person is bound to get people out more than voting against a person).
The other scenerio is that the NotBush side is SO pumped up about getting rid of Bush that there will be a huge turn out to depose Bush from the NotBush side. Result: Kerry wins in a landslide.
Personally, I’m leaning towards number one unfortunately, as I just can’t see getting the masses out to vote AGAINST Bush. People are more motivated to vote FOR someone they really like, admire, agree with, etc. than to simply vote against someone they dispise. This is how I’m seeing it anyway.
I’m only going to vote this time out of what I consider my civic duty TO vote as to me both candidates are unappealing. My wife is psyked to vote (she is a Bush supporter) and can’t wait until November, as is my father and a lot of his friends. A friend of mine is a Democrat but isn’t impressed with Kerry but hates Bush. However, when I asked him he didn’t seem to be very motivated to vote (I’m trying to change his mind by bombarding him with ‘civic duty’ arguements daily). Other friends of mine seem just as apathetic (most of my friends are Democrats or non-aligned types like me, though admittedly some are disaffected Republicans…most of whom however have said in a dejected voice they will be voting for Bush anyway).
Small sample and means nothing…but this is the general feeling I’m getting right now (not including the SDMB folks, which I don’t think are very representative of Joe Citizen out there).
If Kerry remains an uninspiring candidate and is perceived as simply the lesser of two evils, and if the economy stays basically where it is now or even improves between now and November, I fear Bush is going to get 4 more years in the Whitehouse.
-XT