Everyone has a pet theory. (NYT registration required, I think.)
I happen to be reading Clinton’s My Life this decade, and he mentions that Bush I and he (Clinton) were told they were roughly equal when Burke’s peerage did a similar thing in '92, but that Bush was closer to royalty because he traced to King John, rather than King John’s sister (Eleanor).
I guess Bush II is more connected than Bush I because of Babs?
Bush coming out against gray marriage does not help. I guess his position is that the main purpose of marriage is for procreation and that post-menopausal women can not conceive.
Hey, I’m not a racist or anything, but those damn gray people have got to be stopped! They’re taking over everything! 
Sorry, Dan, couldn’t resist. Unfortunately, I can’t agree with you. I’m afraid that Bush’s stance on gay marriage is probably keeping him some votes that might otherwise be on the fence. 
That Kerry’s slightly ahead in Florida doesn’t surprise me at all. No one will soon forget how the election turned out there in 2000, but one thing people don’t seem to remember is that during the summer of 2000, Bush was leading Gore in the state by about 10 points, so the Gore campaign didn’t really bother with campaigning there. However, someone realized in early October that the polls in Florida had shifted to a place where Gore and Bush were in a dead heat, which caused the Gore campaign to shift into high gear in the Sunshine State. Had the Gore campaign concentrated on Florida earlier, Florida wouldn’t have turned into such a… well, Florida.
Since 2000, I don’t think Florida’s demographics have changed so much as the attitude of its electorate. Enough people are pissed off about what happened in 2000, which will drive more to vote. Even if you don’t count the voters disenfranchised due to Florida’s atrocious voting system that year, Florida had an especially low turnout in 2000. While there are still plenty of problems, I’m sure Floridian Democrats are much more ready this year, and much more active.
And as others have noted, senior citizens are upset about the Bush administration (and even revolted against the AARP, which had endorsed the Republican prescription drug program.) Cubans are a decreasingly solid electorate. They were reliably Republican for Bush in 2000, but that’s changing (though I believe they’re still predominantly Republican.)
Let’s also remember that southern Florida is culturally closer to the North, while northern Florida remains squarely in Dixie. Southern Florida is strong for the Democrats, and has very little rapport with the rest of the state.
There’ll be plenty of campaigning there right up to Election Day, but I think it’s safe to say that the natural advantage in Florida is to the Democrats.
The contention that the candidate with more royal blood always wins can be easily refuted, even though of course the actual amount of royal blood a candidate has is usually unknowable. There have been many cases where two candidates ran against each other on different occasions, and won on one occasion and lost on another.
Unless the candidates had blood transfusions between elections, the premise is demonstrably false.
Don’t know if anyone else has linked to this slate article, but thought I’d throw it in as it deals with the OP: Kerry’s ahead in Florida! How is this possible? If so, my appologies as I didn’t throughly read through all the posts in this thread but saw this article and thought of BG’s thread here.
[QUOTE=Florida
800,000 Cubans, 3 million old people, and my girlfriend’s dad—the keys to victory in the Sunshine State.
By Seth Stevenson]
- Cubans. Last time around, Bush took 82 percent of the Cuban vote here. That is an astonishing figure—it’s better than he did in Crawford, Texas. Will he do it again? To find out, I go to lunch with Joe Garcia, executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation.
[…]
They’re furious over new regulations (backed by Bush) that restricted visits to relatives back in Cuba and make it harder to send them money. To the new-school Cubans, this seems pointlessly harsh. “Sending $300 to your grandma in Cuba doesn’t change the dynamic with Castro,” says Garcia. “It’s bad politics and bad policy.” He says CANF advised against these rules, but the Bushies thought they knew better. “They were throwing raw meat to the right-wing base,” he says, “but it turned out they energized the wrong side.”
Advantage: Kerry. Bush will certainly win the Cuban vote here, by a wide margin—but not nearly as wide as in 2000. And in a race like this, every vote blah, blah, blah. (I can’t bring myself to say it. I’ll let Garcia run the numbers for you: “If one-half of 1 percent of the Cuban community had stayed home in 2000—not voted for Gore, but just stayed home—we’d be talking about Gore’s re-election right now.”)
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Florida
800,000 Cubans, 3 million old people, and my girlfriend’s dad—the keys to victory in the Sunshine State.
By Seth Stevenson]
2. Puerto Ricans. Forget the Cubans, some people say. When it comes to Hispanic votes this year, it’s all about Puerto Ricans. Their numbers in Florida are ballooning, and (unlike with Cubans) they’re all U.S. citizens, thus eligible to vote.
[…]
In the time I spend with Lopez (at END and in his van driving around Orlando), I get a sense that—at least for him—the election this fall is less about the outcome than about Puerto Rican power. I ask him which issues are important to Puerto Ricans (expecting to hear about health care and education), and Lopez responds by demanding more Puerto Rican judges, better committee roles for Hispanic congresspeople, and a Puerto Rican astronaut at NASA. He complains that “African-Americans got all the glory at the convention.” Finally, he claims—with the self-importance of local power brokers everywhere—that whichever candidate confirms first to speak at his Empowerment Summit (neither has done so yet) will be guaranteed a win in the I-4 corridor and thus will win the state.
Advantage: Probably Kerry. Puerto Ricans tend to be pretty Democratic, though they’re also a “volatile” bloc, according to a Florida politics expert I spoke with: To some extent they will (as Lopez’s comments suggest) favor the candidate who courts them most assiduously. Here’s where Gov. Jeb Bush is a tremendous asset. His wife is Hispanic, he converted to Catholicism, and he knows the community well and speaks fluent Spanish. If Kerry ignores the Puerto Rican vote, Jeb just might steal it away for his brother.
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Florida
800,000 Cubans, 3 million old people, and my girlfriend’s dad—the keys to victory in the Sunshine State.
By Seth Stevenson]
3. Old People. The senior citizens are getting pretty hot under their floppy, cabana-shirt collars. They hate Bush’s new prescription drug plan and would rather get cheap drugs from Canada and Mexico. There’s outrage that AARP, in league with insurance companies, sold them out.
Advantage: A tiny bit Kerry. Older, pension-dependent seniors (for whom the drug plan is most important) trend pretty Democratic, anyway. The younger retirees—who are more 401(k)-dependent—will vote their pocketbooks.
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Florida
800,000 Cubans, 3 million old people, and my girlfriend’s dad—the keys to victory in the Sunshine State.
By Seth Stevenson]
4. Naderites. Nader will play less of a role this time. Why? Consider this series of events: I call the Nader campaign in D.C. … and I get a busy signal. I call again … and again get a busy signal. I assume at this point they’re checking e-mail on a dial-up. When I finally get through and ask to reach their Florida campaign headquarters, I’m told, “There isn’t any Florida campaign headquarters. But you can talk to this lady.” I’m given this lady’s name and number. When I call this lady, she says she’s in Connecticut and knows nothing whatsoever about Florida.
Advantage: Kerry. I doubt the Nader campaign becomes a big factor here because there is no Nader campaign here.
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Florida
800,000 Cubans, 3 million old people, and my girlfriend’s dad—the keys to victory in the Sunshine State.
By Seth Stevenson]
5. My Girlfriend’s Dad. My girlfriend’s dad—a retiree on the Gulf Coast and a wonderful guy, I might add—voted for Bush last time. But this time, outraged by Bush foreign policy, he’ll be pulling the lever for Kerry. You hear a lot in the media about this type of voter. And with good reason. If there are indeed millions of Bush-2000-but-Kerry-2004 people out there, it spells doom for Bush. The CW is that while many will make this Bush-to-Kerry switch, almost no one who voted for Gore will now flip to Bush.
Advantage: I have to think a little bit Kerry. I see MacManus’ point, but my eyes are telling me she’s overstating her case. Yes, there will be switchers in both directions, but I can’t believe they will balance each other out.
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Florida
800,000 Cubans, 3 million old people, and my girlfriend’s dad—the keys to victory in the Sunshine State.
By Seth Stevenson]
6. The Voting Machines. “This election is not about issues or candidates. It’s about the machines.” So says Lida Rodriguez-Taseff, chair of the Miami-Dade Election Reform Coalition. She predicts that Florida will be decided by a mixture of error and fraud.
[…]
But, says Rodriguez-Taseff, the Democrats are perfectly prepared for the last war. But the Republican plan for 2004 is to avoid a recount altogether. How? By beating the recount margin. If Bush wins by more than one-fourth of a percentage point, there will be no manual recount. If he wins by more than a full percentage point, there will be no recount at all.
Of course, Republicans will try to do this through fierce campaigning and strong positions on important issues. But at the same time, low-level operatives, acting independently, are no doubt aware of the opportunities for fraud. And they are also aware that, with a big enough win, there’s no going back to check the votes. (Don’t get me wrong here. People on both sides are able, and likely, to do shady stuff.)
Advantage: Probably Bush.
[/QUOTE]
(to me this one seems the most far fetched and thin, but I know that many if not most Democrats on this board believe this BS so I put it in also…it might be a factor but I seriously doubt it)
Here is the authors conclusion:
[QUOTE=Florida
800,000 Cubans, 3 million old people, and my girlfriend’s dad—the keys to victory in the Sunshine State.
By Seth Stevenson]
If forced to guess, I’d guess that Kerry wins Florida. There are so many trends in his favor, and my sunnier side is hoping that fraud and error won’t play a big role. Still, I expect a brutal fight to the finish. And I fully expect the lawyers to come out on Election Day—and on the days to follow.
[/QUOTE]
Hopefully this will shed some light on the situation in Florida and show how Kerry is currently (and will probably remain) in the lead there. I thought the swing state graphic was also illuminating, and you can check out other articles linked on the web page to find out about those swing states as well.
-XT
Damn, I forgot to put in […] on the quote for point number 5. Well, if you read the linked article you’ll see the additional points. Personally I also think they are weak. I can’t imagine as many people who voted for Gore going to Bush as people who voted Bush going Kerry this time…just doesn’t seem likely to me. Anyway, here is the whole quote for 5 so judge for yourself:
[QUOTE=Florida
800,000 Cubans, 3 million old people, and my girlfriend’s dad—the keys to victory in the Sunshine State.
By Seth Stevenson
]
5. My Girlfriend’s Dad. My girlfriend’s dad—a retiree on the Gulf Coast and a wonderful guy, I might add—voted for Bush last time. But this time, outraged by Bush foreign policy, he’ll be pulling the lever for Kerry. You hear a lot in the media about this type of voter. And with good reason. If there are indeed millions of Bush-2000-but-Kerry-2004 people out there, it spells doom for Bush. The CW is that while many will make this Bush-to-Kerry switch, almost no one who voted for Gore will now flip to Bush.
Not so fast! So says Susan MacManus, poli-sci professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa (and an oft-quoted commentator on Florida politics). MacManus predicts that for every Florida voter like my girlfriend’s dad, there’s an equal and opposite voter who will switch from Gore 2000 to Bush 2004. The people she has in mind are moderate Dems who think that Bush is better at fighting terrorists. Indeed, a friend of mine—who’s been campaigning for a Democratic congressional candidate in Sarasota—says he’s come across at least a few folks who fit MacManus’ model. (Anecdotally, I’ve also heard of another type of left-to-right switching voter: rabidly pro-Israel Jews, drawn to Lieberman in 2000 but swayed this time by their approval of the war in Iraq and of Bush’s pro-Sharon policies.)
Advantage: I have to think a little bit Kerry. I see MacManus’ point, but my eyes are telling me she’s overstating her case. Yes, there will be switchers in both directions, but I can’t believe they will balance each other out.
[/QUOTE]
Its mostly just an opinion piece but I think it does a fair job of answering the OP.
-XT
Kerry, it was recently revealed, has Jewish grandparents. Though I cannot provide a cite, I think its fair to say that the presence of Jewish heritage amongst the Hohenzollerns, Hapsburgs, and Windsors is…minimal.
GeeDubya (Praise the Leader!), on the other hand, is one hundred percent American cheese on white with mayo.
Well, as Mark Twain pointed out, whenever a healthy intelligent royal managed to appear among the inbred aristocratic families of Europe, it invariably meant that somebody was being schtupped by the gardener.
Update: http://www.electoral-vote.com now shows Florida as a “Barely Kerry” state, based on a new poll by Survey USA, August 18, showing 47% support for Kerry, 46% for Bush, 2% for Nader. Still a lead, but in statistical terms it’s a dead heat.
So you’re saying Barbara Bush didn’t fool around?