According to a Quinnipiac University poll of August 10, in Florida Kerry now has 47% support, Bush 41%, Nader 4%. An earlier Quinnipiac poll had them in a dead heat on June 29. (See http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x12887.xml.)
This is welcome news to me, but also astonishing. The Republicans are really strong in this state – they control the governor’s office and both houses of the state legislature. In fact, Gov. Jeb Bush is now on his second term. I campaigned for Bill McBride when he challenged Bush in 2002, don’t remember the vote margin but suffice to say, McBride got thoroughly clobbered. Both of our senators are Democrats – but of 17 our 25 representatives are Republicans. And we all remember how close the presidential vote was in 2000. How could Kerry lead by such a comfortable margin, in Florida of all places, at this point in the campaign season? Or is there some reason to doubt the poll results?
Note that this is a poll, not an election. No chads to hang, no ballots to burn, nobody with a name similar to a felon to disenfranchise. I’d say, “DUH!” except this is the wrong forum for that.
Florida’s been pegged as a swing state since… well, probably 2000. Somebody has to win, is it really that surprising that it’s swung one way at the moment?
It is surprising that it’s swung so far, so soon. In 2000 the count, however you count it, was 48.8% Gore, 48.8% Bush, 1.6% Nader. (The dispute is over numbers further right of the decimal point.) And, as I said, the Republicans dominate state politics here and control 17 of our 25 House seats.
Maybe it’s just the post-Democratic-Convention bump. Let’s see how the numbers look after the Repub Convention. Although I’m thinking that the protests (possibly even riots) outside the convention are rather going to overshadow anything that happens inside. Well, they knew what they were getting into when they decided to have their convention in the People’s Republic of Gotham.
I think a lot of it is probably the gray vote as well. Medicare and Social Security are strong issues for Dems in Florida, which has a large retirement community.
It may have to do with the fact that angry people are more active and visible, and Florida (which has been known to elect a few Democrats) is full of angry Democrats right now, many of whom didn’t vote in 2000 but won’t make that mistake again. My wife says that of the people she sees (she works for the county) who are registering to vote, it’s about 3-1 Democrat, and many are registering for the first time. She sees very few changes of party affiliation, but all of them are Rep. to Dem., not the other way around.
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Dude, that would be a rocking Elseworlds book. I know Superman’s done a “what if he was in the USSR”, but I don’t think Batman has. It practically writes itself, starting with Comissar Gordon.
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I can’t see why it should surprise anyone that Kerry’s ahead in the polls in Florida this year.
First, as noted, Bush and Gore ran neck-and-neck in Florida in 2000.
Second, in the country as a whole, Kerry seems to be doing better than Gore was in 2000, and Bush seems to be running behind his 2000 polling.
Third, the non-Cuban Latino vote seems to be breaking more for Kerry this year than it did for Gore in 2000.
Fourth, things are changing amongst Cuban Latinos, for two reasons: (1) the Cubans who are can’t let go of 1959 are gradually dying off (if you were 40 then, you’re either 85 or dead now), and the younger ones are hardly as single-issue about Cuba as their parents and grandparents; and (2) the travel restrictions are pissing them off - if you’ve been going to visit your relatives in Cuba once a year, it’s not going to make you happy that Bush is telling you that you now have to wait three years in between visits.
One more: Rasmussen’s also been showing a Kerry lead in FL for the past two months.
Zogby’s poll that was released on July 23 had Bush up 49-48-1. But I’m kinda suspicious of this, because AFAICT, no other pollster has shown Bush over 45% in FL for quite some time now. And like I said earlier, Zogby’s next poll had Kerry up by 3.
